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Burger PM, Savarese G, Tromp J, Adamson C, Jhund PS, Benson L, Hage C, Tay WT, Solomon SD, Packer M, Rossello X, McEvoy JW, De Bacquer D, Timmis A, Vardas P, Graham IM, Di Angelantonio E, Visseren FLJ, McMurray JJV, Lam CSP, Lund LH, Koudstaal S, Dorresteijn JAN, Mosterd A. Personalized lifetime prediction of survival and treatment benefit in patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction: The LIFE-HF model. Eur J Heart Fail 2023; 25:1962-1975. [PMID: 37691140 DOI: 10.1002/ejhf.3028] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/28/2023] [Revised: 08/22/2023] [Accepted: 09/04/2023] [Indexed: 09/12/2023] Open
Abstract
AIMS Although trials have proven the group-level effectiveness of various therapies for heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF), important differences in absolute effectiveness exist between individuals. We developed and validated the LIFEtime-perspective for Heart Failure (LIFE-HF) model for the prediction of individual (lifetime) risk and treatment benefit in patients with HFrEF. METHODS AND RESULTS Cox proportional hazards functions with age as the time scale were developed in the PARADIGM-HF and ATMOSPHERE trials (n = 15 415). Outcomes were cardiovascular death, heart failure (HF) hospitalization or cardiovascular death, and non-cardiovascular mortality. Predictors were age, sex, New York Heart Association class, prior HF hospitalization, diabetes mellitus, extracardiac vascular disease, systolic blood pressure, left ventricular ejection fraction, N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide, and glomerular filtration rate. The functions were combined in life-tables to predict individual overall and HF hospitalization-free survival. External validation was performed in the SwedeHF registry, ASIAN-HF registry, and DAPA-HF trial (n = 51 286). Calibration of 2- to 10-year risk was adequate, and c-statistics were 0.65-0.74. An interactive tool was developed combining the model with hazard ratios from trials to allow estimation of an individual's (lifetime) risk and treatment benefit in clinical practice. Applying the tool to the development cohort, combined treatment with a mineralocorticoid receptor antagonist, sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitor, and angiotensin receptor-neprilysin inhibitor was estimated to afford a median of 2.5 (interquartile range [IQR] 1.7-3.7) and 3.7 (IQR 2.4-5.5) additional years of overall and HF hospitalization-free survival, respectively. CONCLUSION The LIFE-HF model enables estimation of lifelong overall and HF hospitalization-free survival, and (lifetime) treatment benefit for individual patients with HFrEF. It could serve as a tool to improve the management of HFrEF by facilitating personalized medicine and shared decision-making.
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Affiliation(s)
- Pascal M Burger
- Department of Vascular Medicine, University Medical Centre Utrecht, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | | | - Jasper Tromp
- Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
- National University Health System Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
| | - Carly Adamson
- British Heart Foundation Cardiovascular Research Centre, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
| | - Pardeep S Jhund
- British Heart Foundation Cardiovascular Research Centre, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
| | - Lina Benson
- Department of Medicine, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Camilla Hage
- Department of Medicine, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Wan Ting Tay
- National Heart Centre Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
| | - Scott D Solomon
- Brigham and Women's Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Milton Packer
- Baylor Heart and Vascular Institute, Baylor University Medical Centre, Dallas, TX, USA
| | - Xavier Rossello
- Centro Nacional de Investigaciones Cardiovasculares, Madrid, Spain
| | - John W McEvoy
- National Institute for Prevention and Cardiovascular Health, National University of Ireland Galway, Galway, Ireland
| | - Dirk De Bacquer
- Department of Public Health and Primary Care, Ghent University, Ghent, Belgium
| | - Adam Timmis
- William Harvey Research Institute, Queen Mary University of London, London, UK
| | | | - Ian M Graham
- School of Medicine, Trinity College Dublin, The University of Dublin, College Green, Dublin, Ireland
| | | | - Frank L J Visseren
- Department of Vascular Medicine, University Medical Centre Utrecht, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - John J V McMurray
- British Heart Foundation Cardiovascular Research Centre, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
| | - Carolyn S P Lam
- National Heart Centre Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
- Duke-National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
| | - Lars H Lund
- Department of Medicine, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden
| | | | - Jannick A N Dorresteijn
- Department of Vascular Medicine, University Medical Centre Utrecht, Utrecht, The Netherlands
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