Projection of land susceptibility to subsidence hazard in China using an interpretable CNN deep learning model

Land subsidence is a worldwide geo-environmental hazard. Clarifying the influencing factors of land subsidence hazards susceptibility (LSHS) and their spatial distribution are critical to the prevention and control of subsidence disasters. In this study, we selected natural and anthropogenic features or variables on LSHS and used the interpretable convolutional neural network (CNN) method to successfully construct a LSHS model in China. The model performed well, with AUC and F1-score testing set accuracies reaching 0.9939 and 0.9566, respectively. The interpretable method of SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) was use to elucidate the individual contribution of input features to the predictions of CNN model. The importance ranking of model variables showed that population, gross domestic product (GDP) and groundwater storage (GWS) change are the three major factors that affect China's land subsidence. During year 2004-2016, an area of 237.6 thousand km2 was classified as high and very high LSHS, mainly concentrated in the North China Plain, central Shanxi, southern Shaanxi, Shanghai and the junction of Jiangsu and Zhejiang. There will be 333.82-343.12 thousand km2 of areas located in the high and very high LSHS in the mid-21st century (2030-2059) and 361.9-385.92 thousand km2 of areas in the late-21st century (2070-2099). Future population exposure to high and very high LSHS will be 252.12-270.19 million people (mid-21st century) and 196.14-274.50 million people (late-21st century), respectively, compared with the historical exposure of 210.99 million people. The proportion of future railway and road exposure will reach 14.63 %-14.89 % and 11.51 %-11.82 % in the mid-21st century, and 15.46 %-17.12 % and 12.35 %-13.11 % in the late-21st century, respectively. Our findings provide an important information for creating regional adaptation policies and strategies to mitigate damage induced by subsidence.