Economic activity and suicides: Causal evidence from macroeconomic shocks in England and Wales

The relationship between economic activity and suicides has been the subject of much scrutiny, but the focus in the extant literature has been almost exclusively on estimating associations rather than causal effects. In this paper, using data from England and Wales between January 1, 1997 and December 31, 2017, we propose a plausible set of assumptions to estimate the causal impacts of well-known macroeconomic variables on the daily suicide rate. Our identification strategy relies on scheduled macroeconomic announcements and professional economic forecasts. An important advantage of using these variables to model suicide rates is that they can efficiently capture the elements of 'surprise or shock' via the observed difference between how the economy actually performed and how it was expected to perform. Provided that professional forecasts are unbiased and efficient, the estimated 'surprises or shocks' are 'as good as random', and therefore are exogenous. We employ time series regressions and present robust evidence that these exogenous macroeconomic shocks affect the suicide rate. Overall, our results are consistent with economic theory that shocks that reduce estimated permanent income, and therefore expected lifetime utility, can propel suicide rates. Specifically, at the population level, negative shocks to consumer confidence and house prices accelerate the suicide rate. However, there is evidence of behavioural heterogeneity between sexes, states of the economy, and levels of public trust in government. Negative shocks to the retail price index (RPI) raise the suicide rate for males. Negative shocks to the growth rate in gross domestic product (GDP) raise the population suicide rate when the economy is doing poorly. When public trust in government is low, increases in the unemployment rate increase the suicide rate for females.

Macroeconomic shocks, investment volatility and centrality in global manufacturing network

In this paper, based on the investment behavior of publicly listed manufacturing companies in major economies, we analyze the impacts of macroeconomic systematic shocks on the cyclicality of industrial investment volatility and on the centrality of major economies in global manufacturing network. Two facts are established: (1) the cyclicality of investment volatility in major economies shows to be more countercyclical after 2008, indicating that the downward systematic shocks after 2008 resulted in higher investment volatilities in these major economies through the effect of increased uncertainty accompanying the downward shocks; (2) the impact of global systematic shocks on global manufacturing is making the linkages between industrial investments in major manufacturing economies closer during the period 2002-2020, resulting in an increased centrality of major economies. We consider this as an effect of the counter-globalization trend.