Optimal dispersal and diffusion-enhanced robustness in two-patch metapopulations: origin's saddle-source nature matters

A two-patch logistic metapopulation model is investigated both analytically and numerically focusing on the impact of dispersal on population dynamics. First, the dependence of the global dynamics on the stability type of the full extinction equilibrium point is tackled. Then, the behaviour of the total population with respect to the dispersal is studied analytically. Our findings demonstrate that diffusion plays a crucial role in the preservation of both subpopulations and the full metapopulation under the presence of stochastic perturbations. At low diffusion, the origin is a repulsor, causing the orbits to flow nearly parallel to the axes, risking stochastic extinctions. Higher diffusion turns the repeller into a saddle point. Orbits then quickly converge to the saddle's unstable manifold, reducing extinction chances. This change in the vector field enhances metapopulation robustness. On the other hand, the well-known fact that asymmetric conditions on the patches is beneficial for the total population is further investigated. This phenomenon has been studied in previous works for large enough or small enough values of the dispersal. In this work, we complete the theory for all values of the dispersal. In particular, we derive analytically a formula for the optimal value of the dispersal that maximizes the total population.

The interconnection between independent reactive control policies drives the stringency of local containment

The lack of medical treatments and vaccines upon the arrival of the SARS-CoV-2 virus has made non-pharmaceutical interventions the best allies in safeguarding human lives in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic. Here we propose a self-organized epidemic model with multi-scale control policies that are relaxed or strengthened depending on the extent of the epidemic outbreak. We show that optimizing the balance between the effects of epidemic control and the associated socio-economic cost is strongly linked to the stringency of control measures. We also show that non-pharmaceutical interventions acting at different spatial scales, from creating social bubbles at the household level to constraining mobility between different cities, are strongly interrelated. We find that policy functionality changes for better or worse depending on network connectivity, meaning that some populations may allow for less restrictive measures than others if both have the same resources to respond to the evolving epidemic.

The ecology of cancer differentiation therapy

A promising, yet still under development approach to cancer treatment is based on the idea of differentiation therapy (DTH). Most tumours are characterized by poorly differentiated cell populations exhibiting a marked loss of traits associated to communication and tissue homeostasis. DTH has been suggested as an alternative (or complement) to cytotoxic-based approaches, and has proven successful in some specific types of cancer such as acute promyelocytic leukemia (APL). While novel drugs favouring the activation of differentiation therapies are being tested, several open problems emerge in relation to its effectiveness on solid tumors. Here we present a mathematical framework to DTH based on a well-known ecological model used to describe habitat loss. The models presented here account for some of the observed clinical and in vitro outcomes of DTH, providing relevant insight into potential therapy design. Furthermore, the same ecological approach is tested in a hierarchical model that accounts for cancer stem cells, highlighting the role of niche specificity in CSC therapy resistance. We show that the lessons learnt from metapopulation ecology can help guide future developments and potential difficulties of DTH.

An individual's propensity to disperse is dependent on the behavioral type of its peers but not its own behavioral type

Intraspecific differences in the dispersal propensity of animals have been linked to interindividual variation in inherent tendencies (i.e., personality or behavioral type) that influence multiple aspects of an individual's behavior. Studies linking dispersal propensity and personality often (1) focus on defining behavioral tendencies with a single behavioral trait rather than multiple, (2) do not recognize that invertebrates may have behavioral tendencies that influence dispersal, and (3) do not consider how the behavioral type of other individuals affects the dispersal propensity of an individual. We documented multiple foraging behaviors of an aquatic predatory insect (Notonecta irrorata) and found that Notonecta individuals differ in their inherent behavioral tendency (i.e., degree of boldness); all foraging behaviors were correlated such that riskier behaviors were exhibited by the same individuals. We conducted an experiment in which we varied which behavioral types of Notonecta were placed in outdoor pools (passive, bold or both types present) and quantified how long it took for individuals to disperse. Passive and bold individuals had a similar propensity to disperse but the dispersal propensity of each behavioral type was influenced by the behavioral type of other conspecifics present in the pool. Our work reveals that (1) invertebrates have inherent behavioral tendencies that vary among individuals but these tendencies do not necessarily impact all of the behavior displayed by the individual (i.e., impact foraging but not dispersal) and (2) the inherent behavioral tendency of other individuals with which an animal co-occurs can affect habitat patch dynamics such as predation, competition, or colonization.

Chimpanzee (Pan troglodytes schweinfurthii) Population Spans Multiple Protected Areas in the Albertine Rift

We used mitochondrial DNA to examine gene flow in a region of western Uganda that has received little attention regarding chimpanzee population dynamics. The area is critical to gene flow between isolated Democratic Republic of Congo populations and the rest of East Africa. None of the chimpanzees in each of the 4 protected areas under consideration (Toro-Semliki Wildlife Reserve, Semuliki National Park, Rwenzori Mountains National Park and Itwara Central Forest Reserve) are fully habituated. Therefore, it is not clear whether one or more populations have historically used this fragmented landscape for (1) regular ranging and/or (2) infrequent dispersal. We incorporated the published sequences of the first hypervariable region of the D-loop of the mitochondrial genome from 3 previously sampled sites (n = 39) while also contributing the first extensive genetic sampling of chimpanzees in Toro-Semliki (n = 80). Our goal was to generate a historical baseline model of metapopulation dynamics in this region and determine which, if any, of these protected areas forms a fragmented landscape for a single chimpanzee population. According to a discriminant analysis of principal components, the haplotypes at Toro-Semliki form a central cluster, and Itwara is its nearest genetic neighbor. Rwenzori Mountains National Park is the most distant neighbor of all protected areas. We performed an analysis of molecular variance for 14 different population models that divided the samples from the 4 protected areas into 2, 3 or 4 populations. The best fit model included 3 populations: Toro-Semliki Wildlife Reserve and Itwara Forest Reserve comprised a single population; Semuliki National Park and Rwenzori Mountains National Park formed 2 additional separate populations (variance among = 9%, p = 0.014). The results indicated that some protected areas comprised distinctive populations, while others formed a fragmented landscape for a population's ranging for foraging purposes. Therefore, the edges of a protected area do not always define a chimpanzee population. We propose a closer examination of those dynamics through renewed sampling. Advances in DNA extraction and next-generation sequencing will allow us to compare thousands of single nucleotide polymorphisms in the genomes of unhabituated chimpanzees living in each of these protected areas.

Number of Source Patches Required for Population Persistence in a Source-Sink Metapopulation with Explicit Movement

We consider a simple metapopulation model with explicit movement of individuals between patches, in which each patch is either a source or a sink. We prove that similarly to the case of patch occupancy metapopulations with implicit movement, there exists a threshold number of source patches such that the population potentially becomes extinct below the threshold and established above the threshold. In the case where the matrix describing the movement of populations between spatial locations is irreducible, the result is global; further, assuming a complete mobility graph with equal movement rates, we use the principle of equitable partitions to obtain an explicit expression for the threshold. Brief numerical considerations follow.

Discovering the effect of nonlocal payoff calculation on the stabilty of ESS: Spatial patterns of Hawk-Dove game in metapopulations

The classical idea of evolutionarily stable strategy (ESS) modeling animal behavior does not involve any spatial dependence. We considered a spatial Hawk-Dove game played by animals in a patchy environment with wrap around boundaries. We posit that each site contains the same number of individuals. An evolution equation for analyzing the stability of the ESS is found as the mean dynamics of the classical frequency dependent Moran process coupled via migration and nonlocal payoff calculation in 1D and 2D habitats. The linear stability analysis of the model is performed and conditions to observe spatial patterns are investigated. For the nearest neighbor interactions (including von Neumann and Moore neighborhoods in 2D) we concluded that it is possible to destabilize the ESS of the game and observe pattern formation when the dispersal rate is small enough. We numerically investigate the spatial patterns arising from the replicator equations coupled via nearest neighbor payoff calculation and dispersal.

Ephemeral-habitat colonization and neotropical species richness of Caenorhabditis nematodes

Background

The drivers of species co-existence in local communities are especially enigmatic for assemblages of morphologically cryptic species. Here we characterize the colonization dynamics and abundance of nine species of Caenorhabditis nematodes in neotropical French Guiana, the most speciose known assemblage of this genus, with resource use overlap and notoriously similar external morphology despite deep genomic divergence.

Methods

To characterize the dynamics and specificity of colonization and exploitation of ephemeral resource patches, we conducted manipulative field experiments and the largest sampling effort to date for Caenorhabditis outside of Europe. This effort provides the first in-depth quantitative analysis of substrate specificity for Caenorhabditis in natural, unperturbed habitats.

Results

We amassed a total of 626 strain isolates from nine species of Caenorhabditis among 2865 substrate samples. With the two new species described here (C. astrocarya and C. dolens), we estimate that our sampling procedures will discover few additional species of these microbivorous animals in this tropical rainforest system. We demonstrate experimentally that the two most prevalent species (C. nouraguensis and C. tropicalis) rapidly colonize fresh resource patches, whereas at least one rarer species shows specialist micro-habitat fidelity.

Conclusion

Despite the potential to colonize rapidly, these ephemeral patchy resources of rotting fruits and flowers are likely to often remain uncolonized by Caenorhabditis prior to their complete decay, implying dispersal-limited resource exploitation. We hypothesize that a combination of rapid colonization, high ephemerality of resource patches, and species heterogeneity in degree of specialization on micro-habitats and life histories enables a dynamic co-existence of so many morphologically cryptic species of Caenorhabditis.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12898-017-0150-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Increased efficiency in the second-hand tire trade provides opportunity for dengue control

Dengue fever is increasing in geographical range, spread by invasion of its vector mosquitoes. The trade in second-hand tires has been implicated as a factor in this process because they act as mobile reservoirs of mosquito eggs and larvae. Regional transportation of tires can create linkages between rural areas with dengue and disease-free urban areas, potentially giving rise to outbreaks even in areas with strong local control measures. In this work we sought to model the dynamics of mosquito transportation via the tire trade, in particular to predict its role in causing unexpected dengue outbreaks through vertical transmission of the virus across generations of mosquitoes. We also aimed to identify strategies for regulating the trade in second-hand tires, improving disease control. We created a mathematical model which captures the dynamics of dengue between rural and urban areas, taking into account the movement and storage time of tires, and mosquito diapause. We simulate a series of scenarios in which a mosquito population is introduced to a dengue-free area via movement of tires, either as single or multiple events, increasing the likelihood of a dengue outbreak. A persistent disease state can be induced regardless of whether urban conditions for an outbreak are met, and an existing endemic state can be enhanced by vector input. Finally we assess the potential for regulation of tire processing as a means of reducing the transmission of dengue fever using a specific case study from Puerto Rico. Our work demonstrates the importance of the second-hand tire trade in modulating the spread of dengue fever across regions, in particular its role in introducing dengue to disease-free areas. We propose that reduction of tire storage time and control of their movement can play a crucial role in containing dengue outbreaks.

The spatial spread of schistosomiasis: A multidimensional network model applied to Saint-Louis region, Senegal

Schistosomiasis is a parasitic, water-related disease that is prevalent in tropical and subtropical areas of the world, causing severe and chronic consequences especially among children. Here we study the spatial spread of this disease within a network of connected villages in the endemic region of the Lower Basin of the Senegal River, in Senegal. The analysis is performed by means of a spatially explicit metapopulation model that couples local-scale eco-epidemiological dynamics with spatial mechanisms related to human mobility (estimated from anonymized mobile phone records), snail dispersal and hydrological transport of schistosome larvae along the main water bodies of the region. Results show that the model produces epidemiological patterns consistent with field observations, and point out the key role of spatial connectivity on the spread of the disease. These findings underline the importance of considering different transport pathways in order to elaborate disease control strategies that can be effective within a network of connected populations.

Population subdivision of hydrothermal vent polychaete Alvinella pompejana across equatorial and Easter Microplate boundaries

Background

The Equator and Easter Microplate regions of the eastern Pacific Ocean exhibit geomorphological and hydrological features that create barriers to dispersal for a number of animals associated with deep-sea hydrothermal vent habitats. This study examined effects of these boundaries on geographical subdivision of the vent polychaete Alvinella pompejana. DNA sequences from one mitochondrial and eleven nuclear genes were examined in samples collected from ten vent localities that comprise the species’ known range from 23°N latitude on the East Pacific Rise to 38°S latitude on the Pacific Antarctic Ridge.

Results

Multi-locus genotypes inferred from these sequences clustered the individual worms into three metapopulation segments — the northern East Pacific Rise (NEPR), southern East Pacific Rise (SEPR), and northeastern Pacific Antarctic Ridge (PAR) — separated by the Equator and Easter Microplate boundaries. Genetic diversity estimators were negatively correlated with tectonic spreading rates. Application of the isolation-with-migration (IMa2) model provided information about divergence times and demographic parameters. The PAR and NEPR metapopulation segments were estimated to have split roughly 4.20 million years ago (Mya) (2.42–33.42 Mya, 95 % highest posterior density, (HPD)), followed by splitting of the SEPR and NEPR segments about 0.79 Mya (0.07–6.67 Mya, 95 % HPD). Estimates of gene flow between the neighboring regions were mostly low (2 Nm < 1). Estimates of effective population size decreased with southern latitudes: NEPR > SEPR > PAR.

Conclusions

Highly effective dispersal capabilities allow A. pompejana to overcome the temporal instability and intermittent distribution of active hydrothermal vents in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Consequently, the species exhibits very high levels of genetic diversity compared with many co-distributed vent annelids and mollusks. Nonetheless, its levels of genetic diversity in partially isolated populations are inversely correlated with tectonic spreading rates. As for many other vent taxa, this pioneering colonizer is similarly affected by local rates of habitat turnover and by major dispersal filters associated with the Equator and the Easter Microplate region.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12862-016-0807-9) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

More than a corridor: use of a main stem stream as supplemental foraging habitat by a brook trout metapopulation

Coldwater fishes in streams, such as brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis), typically are headwater specialists that occasionally expand distributions downstream to larger water bodies. It is unclear, however, whether larger streams function simply as dispersal corridors connecting headwater subpopulations, or as critical foraging habitat needed to sustain large mobile brook trout. Stable isotopes (δ(13)C and δ(15)N) and a hierarchical Bayesian mixing model analysis was used to identify brook trout that foraged in main stem versus headwater streams of the Shavers Fork watershed, West Virginia. Headwater subpopulations were composed of headwater and to a lesser extent main stem foraging individuals. However, there was a strong relationship between brook trout size and main stem prey contributions. The average brook trout foraging on headwater prey were limited to 126 mm standard length. This size was identified by mixing models as a point where productivity support switched from headwater to main stem dependency. These results, similar to other studies conducted in this watershed, support the hypothesis that productive main stem habitat maintain large brook trout and potentially facilitates dispersal among headwater subpopulations. Consequently, loss of supplementary main stem foraging habitats may explain loss of large, mobile fish and subsequent isolation of headwater subpopulations in other central Appalachian watersheds.

The role of seabirds of the Iles Eparses as reservoirs and disseminators of parasites and pathogens

The role of birds as reservoirs and disseminators of parasites and pathogens has received much attention over the past several years due to their high vagility. Seabirds are particularly interesting hosts in this respect. In addition to incredible long-distance movements during migration, foraging and prospecting, these birds are long-lived, site faithful and breed in dense aggregations in specific colony locations. These different characteristics can favor both the local maintenance and large-scale dissemination of parasites and pathogens. The Iles Eparses provide breeding and feeding grounds for more than 3 million breeding pairs of seabirds including at least 13 species. Breeding colonies on these islands are relatively undisturbed by human activities and represent natural metapopulations in which seabird population dynamics, movement and dispersal can be studied in relation to that of circulating parasites and pathogens. In this review, we summarize previous knowledge and recently-acquired data on the parasites and pathogens found in association with seabirds of the Iles Eparses. These studies have revealed the presence of a rich diversity of infectious agents (viruses, bacteria and parasites) carried by the birds and/or their local ectoparasites (ticks and louse flies). Many of these agents are widespread and found in other ecosystems confirming a role for seabirds in their large scale dissemination and maintenance. The heterogeneous distribution of parasites and infectious agents among islands and seabird species suggests that relatively independent metacommunities of interacting species may exist within the western Indian Ocean. In this context, we discuss how the patterns and determinants of seabird movements may alter parasite and pathogen circulation. We conclude by outlining key aspects for future research given the baseline data now available and current concerns in eco-epidemiology and biodiversity conservation.

Five challenges for spatial epidemic models

Infectious disease incidence data are increasingly available at the level of the individual and include high-resolution spatial components. Therefore, we are now better able to challenge models that explicitly represent space. Here, we consider five topics within spatial disease dynamics: the construction of network models; characterising threshold behaviour; modelling long-distance interactions; the appropriate scale for interventions; and the representation of population heterogeneity.

Seven challenges for metapopulation models of epidemics, including households models

This paper considers metapopulation models in the general sense, i.e. where the population is partitioned into sub-populations (groups, patches,...), irrespective of the biological interpretation they have, e.g. spatially segregated large sub-populations, small households or hosts themselves modelled as populations of pathogens. This framework has traditionally provided an attractive approach to incorporating more realistic contact structure into epidemic models, since it often preserves analytic tractability (in stochastic as well as deterministic models) but also captures the most salient structural inhomogeneity in contact patterns in many applied contexts. Despite the progress that has been made in both the theory and application of such metapopulation models, we present here several major challenges that remain for future work, focusing on models that, in contrast to agent-based ones, are amenable to mathematical analysis. The challenges range from clarifying the usefulness of systems of weakly-coupled large sub-populations in modelling the spread of specific diseases to developing a theory for endemic models with household structure. They include also developing inferential methods for data on the emerging phase of epidemics, extending metapopulation models to more complex forms of human social structure, developing metapopulation models to reflect spatial population structure, developing computationally efficient methods for calculating key epidemiological model quantities, and integrating within- and between-host dynamics in models.

Local extinctions and recolonisations of passerine bird populations in small woods

This paper considers, for eight species of woodland bird, the factors that influenced both local extinctions and recolonisations in 145 woods over 3 years. In all species, probability of local extinction was inversely related to population size; most local extinctions occurred in woods containing one to three breeding pairs. However, considerable variation in extinction probabilities occurred between species and between years. In addition, the suitability of habitat within a wood (more extinctions in less suitable woods) was important for wren Troglodytes troglodytes, song thrush Turdus philomelos and blue tit Parus caeruleus; also, the structure of the surrounding landscape was important for blue tit, great tit Parus major, and chaffinch Fringilla coelebs (more extinctions in localities with less woodland). In only two species was the probability of recolonisation related to any of the measured variables. Wrens were more likely to recolonise larger woods, whereas song thrushes were more likely to recolonise woods with a high habitat suitability rating and those which are more isolated from other woodland.