Estuarine environmental flow assessment based on the flow-ecological health index relation model: a case study in Yangtze River Estuary, China

Environmental flow (e-flow) is the water demand of one given ecosystem, which can become the flow regulation target for protection and restoration of river or estuarine ecosystems. In this study, an e-flow assessment based on the flow-ecological health index (EHI) relation model was conducted to improve ecosystem health of the Yangtze River Estuary (YRE). Monitoring data of hydrology, biology, and water environment in the last decades were used for the model establishment. For the description of the YRE ecosystem, an EHI system was developed by cumulative frequency distribution curves and adaption of national standards. After preprocessing original flow values into proportional flow values, the generalized additive model and Monte Carlo random sampling were used for the establishment of the flow-EHI relation model. From the model calculation, the e-flow assessment results were that, in proportional flow values, the suitable flow range was 1.05-1.35, and the optimum flow range was 1.15-1.25 (flows in Yangtze River Datong Station). For flow regulation in two crucial periods, flows of 42,630-65,545 m3/s or over 14,675 m3/s are needed for the suitable flow of YRE in summer (June-August) or January, respectively. An adaptive management framework of ecological health-based estuarine e-flow assessment for YRE was contrived due to the limitation of current established model when facing the extreme drought in summer, 2022. The methodology and framework in this study are expected to provide valuable management and data support for the sustainable development of estuarine ecosystems and to bring inspiration for further studies at even continental or global levels.