Trade-driven changes in China's air pollutant emissions during 2012-2017

Trade plays an important role in driving regional production and the associated pollutant emissions. Revealing the patterns and underlying driving forces of trade may be critical for informing future mitigation actions among regions and sectors. In this study, we focused on the "Clean Air Action" period from 2012 to 2017 and revealed the changes and driving forces in trade-related air pollutant emissions (including sulfur dioxide (SO₂), particulate matter with a diameter equal to or less than 2.5 μm (PM_2.5), nitrogen oxides (NO_x), volatile organic compound (VOC), and carbon dioxide (CO₂)) among regions and sectors in China. Our results showed that emissions embodied in domestic trade decreased considerably in absolute volume nationwide (23-61 %, except for VOC and CO₂), but the relative contribution ratios from consumption in central and southwestern China increased (from 13 to 23 % to 15-25 % for various species), and those for eastern China decreased (from 39 to 45 % to 33-41 % for various species). From the sector perspective, trade-driven emissions from the power sector decreased in relative contribution ratios, while those from other sectors (including chemical, metal, nonmetal and services) were outstanding for specific regions, and became new targeted sectors when seeking mitigation through domestic supply chains. For changes in trade-related emissions, reduction in emission factor dominated the decreasing trends for almost all regions (27-64 % for the national total, except for VOC and CO₂), and optimization in trade and/or energy structures also played marked reduction roles in specific regions, far offsetting the increasing effect of increasing trade volume (26-32 %, except for VOC and CO₂). Our study provides a comprehensive picture of how trade-associated pollutant emissions changed during the "Clean Air Action" period, which may facilitate the formulation of more effective trade-associated policies to mitigate future emissions.

Carbon footprint of tourism in Spain: Covid-19 impact and a look forward to recovery

Tourism is very vulnerable to climate change and the disruption of Covid-19, facing two challenges: fighting climate change pursuing its carbon emissions goals, and recovering from the complex pandemic effects. We contribute to the incomplete understanding of tourism emissions pandemic impact and in different post-covid recovery scenarios. Using official data on tourists' consumption, we calculate the carbon footprint of tourism in Spain in 2019 and 2020 under different recovery pathways, including changes in consumption patterns and emissions efficiency, using a multiregional input-output model. Results show that the carbon footprint of tourism in Spain fell by 63% in 2020 compared to pre-pandemic levels, which would be aligned with the current sectoral decarbonisation target. However, the new tourists' consumption patterns resulting from the pandemic are insufficient to increase tourism sustainability if they imply pre-pandemic consumption levels. The results provide empirical ground for the binary debate on "recovery or reform".

CO2 emissions and global value chains indicators:new evidence for 1995-2018

Globalization and the configuration of production processes around Global Value Chains (GVCs) have become key factors for explaining the recent evolution of environmental and economic indicators. Indeed, previous research found evidence on the significant impact of GVCs indicators (participation and position) on CO₂ emissions. Additionally, results obtained in previous literature vary depending on the time period and geographical areas considered. In this context, the main aims of this paper are to analyze the role the GVCs in explaining the evolution of CO₂ emissions, and to identify possible structural breaks. This study uses the Multiregional Input-Output framework to calculate a position indicator and two different measures of participation in GVCs (interpreted either as trade openness or international competitiveness). The analysis useS Inter-Country Input-Output tables (ICIO) as main database, which includes 66 countries and 45 industries and covers the period 1995-2018. It is first concluded that upstream positions in GVCs are associated to lower global emissions. Additionally, the effect of participation depends on the measure used: trade openness is linked to lower emissions, while a higher competitiveness in international trade leads to higher emissions. Finally, two structural breaks are identified in 2002 and 2008, revealing that position is significant in the two first subperiods, while participation becomes significant from 2002 onwards. Thus, policies to mitigate CO₂ emissions might to be different before and after 2008: currently, reductions in emissions can be achieved by increasing value-added embodied in trade while decreasing the volume of transactions.

Quality matters: Pollution exacerbates water scarcity and sectoral output risks in China

Pollution exacerbates a region's water scarcity by making water unfit for different uses and reducing freshwater availability. Local water scarcity may lead to economic output losses, and the risk can be transmitted to downstream sectors through reduced input supplies. Previous studies focus on quantity-based water scarcity assessment. It is still unknown how water quality constraints may amplify economic risks of local water-use sectors and distant economies. Here we introduce an integrated method and assess the impacts of both quantity and quality-based local physical water scarcity risks (LWSR) and virtual water scarcity risks (VWSR) in domestic trade system in China. We find in 2017 quality-based LWSR and VWSR in China are ∼593 and ∼240 billion US$. Inclusion of water pollution constraints almost doubles the risks of economic losses due to insufficient clean water supply. We then identify critical regions and sectors that are highly risky or vulnerable to the supply chains. We find water pollution makes risky VWSR exporters more centralized in a few Northern provinces where available freshwater resources are already limited, e.g. the agriculture sector in Hebei province. VWSR importers span broadly, but water pollution increases concentrations of upstream suppliers that face local water scarcity for most provinces, decreasing overall resilience of China's domestic trade network. Our results underscore the needs to alleviate overall scarcity risks by conserving physical water resources and improving water quality simultaneously.

How does "the Belt and Road" and the Sino-US trade conflict affect global and Chinese CO2 emissions?

In the context of the rapid development of the Belt and Road (B&R) Initiative, the continuous transfer of Sino-US trade to the B&R countries is an important means to mitigate the threat of Sino-US trade, and the environmental impact of this transfer should be considered, so as to provide a scientific basis for China's policy formulation about achieving this possible trade transfer with minimized environmental impacts. This study proposes a multiregional input-output model and analyzes the impact on carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions of transferring the Sino-US trade to the B&R countries for two types of scenarios. The results show the following: (1) A transfer of either the import trade or the export trade increases global and Chinese CO₂ emissions by 81.76 Mt and 24.84 Mt, respectively. When both the import trade and export trade are transferred, the increases in CO₂ emissions are only 0.22% and 0.26%, respectively. (2) Globally, the changes in international trade-embodied CO₂ emissions are responsible for most of the global emission changes, especially the CO₂ emissions exported from Russia, India, and many Southeast Asian countries to China. (3) Different from the impact on global emissions, the increases in Chinese domestic production-based CO₂ emissions influence China's total CO₂ emissions. Due to the imported CO₂ emissions, the consumption-based CO₂ emissions are affected to a greater degree and increase by 70.30 Mt, accounting for only 0.86% of the CO₂ emissions in 2015. Finally, some policy implications are proposed.

Unbalanced economic benefits and the electricity-related carbon emissions embodied in China's interprovincial trade

Quantifying the economic benefits and environmental costs brought about by trade can help reveal the environmental inequalities behind regional trade. There have been many studies on the accounting of greenhouse gas emissions and pollutants embodied in regional trade, but there are insufficient studies analyzing the imbalance between the economic benefits and environmental costs embodied in trade. Electricity-related carbon emissions are the main contributor to global warming, explaining more than 40% of carbon emissions both globally and in China. This study uses the network approach and multiregional input-output (MRIO) model to quantify the electricity-related carbon emissions and value added embodied in China's interprovincial trade from 2007 to 2012 and also applies the regional environmental inequality (REI) index to measure the imbalance of electricity-related carbon emissions and economic benefits embodied in such trade. The results show that 20-80% of the electricity-related carbon emissions and 15-70% of the value added of a province's final demand are outsourced to other provinces. The major directions of the net value added and electricity-related carbon emissions embodied in China's interprovincial trade were from north to south and from the center to the east. Unequal bilateral interprovincial trade mainly occurred between inland provinces and developed provinces, and western provinces (such as Guizhou, Gansu, and Ningxia) suffered economic and environmental losses from interprovincial trade. This study can promote understanding of the distribution impacts of domestic trade on environmental costs and economic benefits and provide a reference for China's cross-provincial carbon emission mitigation policies.

China's low-carbon economic transition: Provincial analysis from 2002 to 2012

As the largest energy consumer and CO₂-emitting country, China is committed to achieving a low-carbon economy (LCE). This study seeks to understand the spatial evolution of China's LCE provinces and determine which sectors could promote the formation of LCE provinces. Multiregional input-output (MRIO) analysis is applied to filter the LCE provinces and the sectoral structure changes behind the LCE in China from 2002 to 2012. The result shows that approximately 30% of the provinces (i.e., Tianjin, Zhejiang, Jiangsu and Chongqing) become LCE provinces faster than other provinces from 2002 to 2012, and the location of the LCE provinces gradually shifts from coastal to inland regions after 2007. Some sectors (i.e., nonmetal mining, chemical industry and nonmetal manufacturing) gradually become LCE sectors from 2002 to 2012, and these sectors promote the formation and development of LCE provinces. On this basis, this study proposes policy implications regarding the benchmarking of sectors and a sectoral structure that can promote the formation of LCE provinces.

Transfers of embodied PM2.5 emissions from and to the North China region based on a multiregional input-output model

Atmospheric PM_2.5 pollution has become a global issue, and is increasingly being associated with social unrest. As a resource reliant local economy and heavy industry cluster, the North China region has become China's greatest emitter, and the source of much pollution spillover to outside regions. To address this issue, the current study investigates the transfers of embodied PM_2.5 emissions to and from the North China region (which is taken to include Hebei, Henan, Shandong, and Shanxi, and is referred to here as HHSS). The study uses a top-down pollutant emission inventory and environmentally extended multi-regional input-output (EE-MRIO) model. The results indicate that the HHSS area exported a total of 660 Gg of embodied PM_2.5 to other domestic provinces, mainly producing outflows to China's central coastal area (Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai) and the Beijing-Tianjin region. HHSS also imported 224 Gg of embodied PM_2.5 from other domestic regions, primarily from Inner Mongolia and the northeast. Furthermore, the transfer of embodied emissions often occurred between geographically adjacent areas to save costs; Beijing and Tianjin mainly transferred embodied pollution to Hebei and Shanxi, whilst Jiangsu, Shanghai, and Zhejiang tended to import embodied air pollutants from Shandong and Henan. At the sectoral level, the melting and pressing of metals, the production of non-metallic products, and electric and heat power production were the three dominant economic sectors for PM_2.5 emissions, together accounting for 81% of total discharges. Capital formation played a key role in outflows (75%) in all sectors. Moreover, the virtual pollutant emissions exported to foreign countries also significantly affected HHSS' discharges significantly, making up 340 Gg. Allocating responsibility for some proportion of HHSS' emissions to the Beijing-Tianjin area and the central coastal provinces may be an effective approach for mitigating releases in HHSS.