Early prediction of unfavorable evolution after a first clinical episode suggestive of multiple sclerosis: the EUMUS score

BACKGROUND

Predicting disease progression in patients with the first clinical episode suggestive of multiple sclerosis (MS) is crucial for personalized therapeutic approaches. This study aimed to develop the EUMUS score for accurately estimating the risk of early evidence of disease activity and progression (EDA).

METHODS

Retrospective analysis was conducted on data from 221 patients with a first clinical MS episode collected from four Italian MS centers. Various variables including socio-demographics, clinical features, cerebrospinal fluid analysis, evoked potentials, and brain MRI were considered. A prognostic multivariate regression model was identified to develop the EUMUS score. The optimal cutoff for predicting the transition from no evidence of disease activity (NEDA3) to EDA was determined. The accuracy of the prognostic model and score were tested in a separate UK MS cohort.

RESULTS

After 12 months, 61.54% of patients experienced relapses and/or new MRI lesions. Younger age (OR 0.96, CI 0.93-0.99; p = 0.005), MRI infratentorial lesion(s) at baseline (OR 2.21, CI 1.27-3.87; p = 0.005), positive oligoclonal bands (OR 2.89, CI 1.47-5.69; p = 0.002), and abnormal lower limb somatosensory-evoked potentials (OR 2.77, CI 1.41-5.42; p = 0.003) were significantly associated with increased risk of EDA. The EUMUS score demonstrated good specificity (72%) and correctly classified 80% of patients with EDA in the independent UK cohort.

CONCLUSIONS

The EUMUS score is a simple and useful tool for predicting MS evolution within 12 months of the first clinical episode. It has the potential to guide personalized therapeutic approaches and aid in clinical decision-making.

The course of cervical spinal cord atrophy rate and its relationship with NEDA in relapsing remitting multiple sclerosis

This study aimed to compare the annualized segmental cervical spinal cord atrophy rate (ASCAR) in the early and late stages of relapsing remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS), and to investigate the relationship between ASCAR and no evidence of disease activity (NEDA) in RRMS. Participants in this study included early stage MS (EMSg) patients, late stage MS (LMSg) patients, and healthy controls. All of the included participants (n = 175 subjects) were followed up for 14 months, and an MRI was performed on each participant at the beginning and at the end of the study. Cervical spinal cord average segmental area (CSCA) was measured by a semi-automated method, and ASCAR (mm²/year) was calculated. Data from the EMSg (n = 81 subjects) and LMSg (n = 94 subjects) patient groups were compared with each other and with the control group (n = 43 subjects). Examination of the initial CSCA values revealed that the baseline CSCA of the control group was larger than that of the EMSg (p < 0.001), and the baseline CSCA of the EMSg was larger than that of the LMSg (p < 0.001). The ASCAR of the control group, LMSg, and EMSg were 0.48, 0.93, and 1.81 mm² (p < 0.001), respectively. Regression analysis revealed that disability increase was associated with ASCAR, while MRI activity and relapse presence were unrelated to ASCAR. In both patient groups, ASCAR was slower in those who fulfilled NEDA but this relationship was not significant. Cervical spinal cord atrophy progression over time occurs at a greater rate in the early stages of RRMS disease compared to the late stages. ASCAR was unrelated to MRI activity and relapse, which are clinical markers of acute inflammation.

A real-world single-centre analysis of alemtuzumab and cladribine for multiple sclerosis

BACKGROUND

Highly active MS may warrant higher efficacy treatments for disease control. However, these often confer more risk and have not been compared in head-to-head clinical trials, making relative efficacy and safety difficult to interpret. Alemtuzumab and cladribine are two high-efficacy treatments given as discrete courses separated by one year, followed by a durable response that potentially does not require ongoing treatment. Before the approval of oral cladribine, our centre had been treating patients with a bioequivalent intravenous (IV) regimen since 2010. The objective of this study is to report the safety and efficacy data of alemtuzumab and cladribine in a real-world, single centre setting.

METHODS

We retrospectively reviewed all patients treated with alemtuzumab or cladribine at the Ottawa Hospital MS Clinic with 2 or more years of follow-up. Information on baseline demographic variables, previous treatment, and prior disease activity was collected. Outcomes investigated were "no evidence of disease activity" (NEDA) and its constituents: new clinical relapse, new MRI activity, and Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) progression; as well as any adverse events or treatment discontinuation. We performed univariate and multiple logistic regression to determine differences in 2-year NEDA and time-to-event analyses with Cox regression models to determine factors associated with each outcome through the study period.

RESULTS

Forty-six patients were treated with alemtuzumab and 65 with cladribine of whom 51 (78%) received the intravenous regimen, followed for a total of 420.1 person-years. The cladribine group was older (p=.0002), with higher baseline EDSS (p=.0015), and more likely secondary progressive (p<.0001). Alemtuzumab had a higher rate of 2-year NEDA than cladribine (OR 4.78, 95%CI: 1.57-14.50, p=.006), but beyond 2 years the difference was not statistically significant (HR 0.50, 95%CI: 0.25-1. 30, p=.061). More prior treatments were associated with lower likelihood of retaining NEDA (HR 1.26, 95%CI: 1.03-1.54, p=.027). Alemtuzumab had more infusion reactions (80% vs. 17%, p<.0001), shingles (22% vs. 2%, p=.005), and secondary autoimmunity (52% vs. 3%, p<.0001) than cladribine, but there was no difference in grade 3 or higher adverse events (21.7% vs. 18.5%, p=1.0).

CONCLUSION

In our cohort alemtuzumab and cladribine achieved similar rates of NEDA in long-term follow-up, with overall less adverse events with cladribine. Patient registries would allow more robust comparisons, detection of adverse events, and assessment of a durable response.

"No evidence of disease activity": Is it an aspirational therapeutic goal in multiple sclerosis?

'No evidence of disease activity' (NEDA) that has been identified as a potential outcome measure for the evaluation of DMTs effects. The concept has been adopted from other diseases such as cancer where treatment is intended to free the patient from the disease. Disease-free status has been substituted by NEDA in MS, since we are limited when it comes to fully evaluating the underlying disease. In general, NEDA, otherwise termed as NEDA-3, is defined by the lack of disease activity based on the absence of clinical relapses, disability progression with the expanded disability status score (EDSS), and radiological activity. Recently, brain atrophy, a highly predictive marker of disability progression, has been added as a fourth component (NEDA-4). The use of this composite allowed a more comprehensive assessment of the disease activity. Indeed, it has an important role in clinical trials as a secondary outcome in addition to primary endpoints. However, the evidence is insufficient regarding the ability of NEDA to predict future disability and treatment response. Moreover, combining different composites does not eliminate the limitation of each, therefore the use of NEDA in clinical routine is still not implemented. The aim of this review is first to report from the literature the available definitions of NEDA and its different variants, and second, evaluate the importance of its use as a surrogate marker to assess the efficacy of different DMTs.