Predictive Model of Nonneoplastic Pathology after Endoscopic Resection of Gastric Epithelial Neoplasia

Background/Aims

The rate of nonneoplastic pathology (NNP) after endoscopic resection (ER) of gastric epithelial neoplasia (GEN) has been reported to be 3%–7%. However, to date, the associations of pretreatment characteristics with NNP have not been identified. The aim of this study was to develop a predictive model for NNP after ER.

Methods

Among 817 patients who underwent ER for GEN, factors associated with NNP were identified by univariate and multivariate analyses. Weighted points considering the β coefficient were allocated to each variable that was significant in the multivariate analysis. The predictive score was calculated by the total points. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) was calculated for the predictive score.

Results

The rate of NNP was 8.8%. After multivariate analysis, poor demarcation from the background, no ulceration, a flat appearance, and low-grade dysplasia were significant factors predictive of NNP. One point each was allocated for no ulcer, flat appearance, and low-grade dysplasia. Two points were allocated for poor demarcation from the background. The predictive score ranged from 0 to 5 points. Patients were categorized as being at low risk (0, 1, or 2 points) or high risk (3, 4, or 5 points) for NNP. The AUROC was 0.82 (95% confidence interval, 0.77 to 0.88; p<0.01). With a cutoff value of 2.5, the sensitivity and specificity of the score for predicting NNP were 0.72 and 0.84, respectively.

Conclusions

We developed a model to predict NNP after ER. Endoscopic re-biopsy or re-evaluation by pathologists is strongly recommended for the high-risk group.