Iterative learning control for lane-changing trajectories upstream off-ramp bottlenecks and safety evaluation

This paper proposes an iterative learning control framework for lane changing to improve traffic operation and safety at a diverging area nearby a highway off-ramp in an environment with connected and automated vehicles (CAVs). This framework controls CAVs in the off-ramp bottlenecks by imitating the trajectories optimized by machine learning algorithms. Next Generation Simulation (NGSIM) dataset is utilized as the raw data and filtered by cost function. The traffic models, including lane-changing decision (LCD) models and lane-changing execution (LCE) models, are completed by Random Forest (RF) and Back Propagation Neural Network (BPNN) algorithms. Based on simulation results, simulation data satisfying the predetermined criterion will be added to dataset in the next iteration. Various metrics are considered to evaluate the proposed framework systematically from both lateral and longitudinal aspects, including time exposed time-to collision (TET), time integrated time-to-collision (TIT), rear-end collision risk indexes (RCRI) and lane-changing risk index (LCRI). The results present that the iterative framework can decrease the longitudinal risk of the system by a factor of two times, and can reduce the lateral risk by 28.7%. When the CAVs market penetration rate (MPR) reaches 100%, the longitudinal and lateral risk values of the off-ramp system can be reduced by 90% and 35%, respectively. However, it is worth noting that only when the CAVs MPR reaches 50% does the system's value at risk change significantly.