Impacts of rainfall shocks on out-migration are moderated more by per capita income than by agricultural output in Türkiye

Rural populations are particularly exposed to increasing weather variability, notably through agriculture. In this paper, we exploit longitudinal data for Turkish provinces from 2008 to 2018 together with precipitation records over more than 30 years to quantify how variability in a standardized precipitation index (SPI) affects out-migration as an adaptation mechanism. Doing so, we document the role of three potential causal channels: per capita income, agricultural output, and local conflicts. Our results show that negative SPI shocks (droughts) are associated with higher out-migration in rural provinces. A mediated-moderator approach further suggests that changes in per capita income account for more than one quarter of the direct effect of droughts on out-migration, whereas agricultural output is only relevant for provinces in the upper quartile of crop production. Finally, we find evidence that local conflict fatalities increase with drought and trigger out-migration, although this channel is distinct from the direct effect of SPI shocks on out-migration.

Land-System Changes and Migration Amidst the Opium Poppy Collapse in the Southern Highlands of Oaxaca, Mexico (2016-2020)

For decades, Mexico has been one of the major illegal opium poppy cultivation countries in the world. In 2017-2018 the price of the opium gum dropped abruptly to a historical low, causing a sudden collapse of production. We analyze the dynamics of rural land systems amid this price collapse through a multi-site approach in three neighboring municipalities in the Southern Highlands of the state of Oaxaca, Mexico. We use medium-scale spatial resolution satellite imagery for a quantitative assessment in a five-year period (2016-2020), complemented by secondary data and structured/semi-structured interviews with poppy growers and other key informants. Findings show that all three municipalities experienced pronounced declines in the areas of overall cultivated agricultural land immediately after the poppy price collapsed (2017-2018). However, there is a clear contrast among municipalities in how these areas recovered the following years (2019-2020). We identify three differentiating factors that explain this contrast in land-system trajectories: different levels of extreme poverty, livelihood diversification, and geographic isolation associated to (trans)national migration networks. These findings contribute to the analysis of the dynamic relationships among rural land systems, local resource management (including agrobiodiversity), and economic globalization involving illegal crop-commodity cultivation and migration, particularly in Latin America.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10745-022-00388-4.

Impact of floods and river-bank erosion on the riverine people in Manikchak Block of Malda District, West Bengal

Floods and river-bank erosion are the most frequent natural hazards in India, specifically in the deltaic regions. In West Bengal, floods and river-bank erosion predominantly affect Malda district as it is located in the moribund part of the Bengal delta. This article studies the recent trend of shifting course of the River Ganga and the effects of floods and consequent river-bank erosion on livelihoods of the residents of chars [The chars (called Diara in the upper reaches of the Gangetic plains) are virgin, low-lying river islands and sand bars occurring in the plains, particularly the deltaic parts of rivers (Lahiri-Dutt and Samanta, South Asia: J South Asia Stud 30:327-350, 2007).] and river-bank areas of Manikchak block in the Malda district. Around 300 sample households were selected by random stratified sampling technique from four gram panchayats of Manikchak block. Both primary and secondary data have been used. After analysing satellite images from the year 1973 to 2018, it has been observed that the River Ganga continues to shift eastwards and is eroding villages one after another. Inhabitants face multidimensional obstacles to run their households. Large numbers of people are displaced every year due to loss of land. Failure in facilitating the required assistance in the form of alternative spaces for resettlement and other disaster-mitigating public support systems against these hazards would make it impossible for the deplorable condition of the vulnerable people to improve.

Feminization, rural transformation, and wheat systems in post-soviet Uzbekistan

This paper examines how rural transformation in Uzbekistan alters gender norms and roles and, consequently, affects women's involvement in agriculture. We focus on the role that contextual factors, particularly kinship relations, government goals, and institutional structures each contribute to rural transformation and male out-migration, and how these, in turn, increase women's work in wheat production and processing. The wheat is the most important crop in the country which has the highest area coverage (35%) in Uzbekistan. We begin by highlighting the post-Soviet transition in Uzbekistan and its effects on the agricultural sector, including how households respond to opportunities for innovation. We then move to a discussion of our methodological approach drawing on insights from the GENNOVATE project, a collaborative initiative across 11 CGIAR centres that explored the relationship between changing gender norms in relation to women's roles in agricultural production and processing. Next, we examine an understudied topic in migration research i.e., how the transformation of agriculture contributes to increased dependence on unpaid female agricultural labour. We conclude with an analysis of how the feminization of agriculture alters household relations and women's participation in the public sphere. Significantly, we close with a reflection on what these changes mean for gender and innovation studies.

Fertility Drain or Fertility Gain? Emigration and Fertility During the Great Recession in Italy

How does emigration affect fertility in the country of origin? We address this question by estimating counterfactual fertility during the Great Recession in order to understand what the effect of the recession on fertility would be in the absence of emigration. Between 2009 and 2014, Southern European countries suffered from harsh economic instability, which triggered a sharp drop in fertility and a spike in emigration. We focus on Italy, exploiting the richness of the Italian Administrative Registry of Italians Residing Abroad (AIRE), which records information about all Italian citizens moving their residence abroad, as well as Italian birth records. Using an instrumental variable approach, which helps overcome endogeneity issues in the fertility-migration relationship, we find a positive impact of emigration on the total fertility rate at the Italian province level. This result suggests that emigrants are selected among those individuals who have a lower risk of having children. Therefore, in the absence of emigration, counterfactual fertility would have been lower than it actually is. Such a positive effect of out-migration on fertility in the area of origin could thereby lead to an underestimation of the effect of the recession on fertility.

Social Change, Out-migration, and Exit from Farming in Nepal

Though international out-migration is widespread, little evidence exists regarding the consequences for economic change in sending countries, particularly in the densely populated agricultural areas of Asia. We examine associations between labor out-migration, remittances, and agricultural change in Nepal. Existing studies of this important population-environment relationship generally ignore the role of local community context, which is known to shape demographic behavior and likely exit from farming as well. Research offers opposing views of the consequences of out-migration for agricultural change - (1) loss of farm labor reduces engagement in agriculture, versus (2) loosening credit constraints from remittances increases engagement in agriculture - and indicates that both mechanisms likely operate simultaneously. Both of these mechanisms are likely to be shaped by changes in local context. Using multilevel dynamic models, we estimate associations between out-migration and remittances by household members and subsequent exit from farming, controlling for variations in community context. Results suggest international out-migration is associated with higher odds of exit from farming and simultaneously remittances are associated with lower odds of exit from farming. Results are robust against several key variations in model specification, including controls for household characteristics and local community context. However, local community context exerts an important independent influence on the hazard of exit from farming.

Examining the effect of land transfer on landlords' income in China: An application of the endogenous switching model

The paper looks at factors that influence landlords' decision to transfer their farmlands and how farmland transfer has impacted on landlords' income. The essence of farmland transfer policy is to promote efficiency in agricultural land use. Endogenous regression model was adopted for the study because of its ability to handle the transfer decisions and impact of transfer decision on outcome simultaneously. The data were obtained from selected communities in Yunnan province, China. A total of 260 landlords were randomly selected for the study. The result shows that out-migration, off-farm income, agesq, public infrastructure and skill training influence transfer decision positively. The results further show that famine experience, access to credit, education and age negatively influence farmland transfer decision. The results show that farmland transfer leads to a significant increase in landlords' income.

Food insecurity among senior citizens in high out-migration areas: evidence from Western Nepal

Background

Food insecurity is a critical public health challenge, particularly in low- and middle-income countries such as Nepal. The demographic transition has resulted in a growing population of senior citizens. However, the determinants of food insecurity among Nepali senior citizens remain unknown. This study aims to fill this gap by assessing food insecurity among the older populations in the far-western region, one of the poorest regions of the country. Further, we also aim to assess the potential association between adult children's migration and the food insecurity status of the left behind older parents.

Methods

A community-based cross-sectional study was conducted among 260 randomly selected senior citizens in the Kanchanpur district in far-western Nepal. The short form of the household food security scale, originally developed by the United States Department of Agriculture, was used to measure household food security. Associations were examined by logistic regression.

Results

The prevalence of food insecurity in senior citizens' households was 41.1%. Senior citizen households with their adult children's migration (AOR = 0.47, 95% CI: 0.24-0.95) had lower odds of being food insecure whereas households with lower family income (<$100 compared to ≥ $100) had two times higher odds of being food insecure (AOR = 2.26, 95% CI: 1.08-4.76). Also, households owning a cultivable land/farm (AOR = 0.14, 95% CI: 0.05-0.40), primary source of income as service/pension (AOR = 0.26, 95% CI: 0.08-0.89) or business (AOR = 0.15, 95% CI: 0.03-0.59) and participants who received geriatric allowances (AOR = 0.05, 95% CI = 0.01-0.16) had lower odds of being food insecure.

Conclusion

The prevalence of food insecurity among households with a senior citizen in Kanchanpur district was high and associated with the migration status of adult children, and household socioeconomic status. This calls for a greater policy response focused specifically on households with older adults and the integration of gerontological evidence into the existing food security and nutrition strategies.