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Blatter R, Gökduman B, Amacher SA, Becker C, Beck K, Gross S, Tisljar K, Sutter R, Pargger H, Marsch S, Hunziker S. External validation of the PROLOGUE score to predict neurological outcome in adult patients after cardiac arrest: a prospective cohort study. Scand J Trauma Resusc Emerg Med 2023; 31:16. [PMID: 37016393 PMCID: PMC10074653 DOI: 10.1186/s13049-023-01081-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/31/2023] [Accepted: 03/24/2023] [Indexed: 04/06/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The PROLOGUE score (PROgnostication using LOGistic regression model for Unselected adult cardiac arrest patients in the Early stages) is a novel prognostic model for the prediction of neurological outcome after cardiac arrest, which showed exceptional performance in the internal validation. The aim of this study is to validate the PROLOGUE score in an independent cohort of unselected adult cardiac arrest patients and to compare it to the thoroughly validated Out-of-Hospital Cardiac Arrest (OHCA) and Cardiac Arrest Hospital Prognosis (CAHP) scores. METHODS This study included consecutive adult cardiac arrest patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) of a Swiss tertiary teaching hospital between October 2012 and July 2022. The primary endpoint was poor neurological outcome at hospital discharge, defined as a Cerebral Performance Category (CPC) score of 3 to 5 including death. RESULTS Of 687 patients included in the analysis, 321 (46.7%) survived to hospital discharge with good neurological outcome, 68 (9.9%) survived with poor neurological outcome and 298 (43.4%) died. The PROLOGUE score showed an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.83 (95% CI 0.80 to 0.86) and good calibration for the prediction of the primary outcome. The OHCA and CAHP score showed similar performance (AUROC 0.83 and 0.84 respectively), the differences between the three scores were not significant (p = 0.495). In a subgroup analysis, the PROLOGUE score performed equally in out-of-hospital and in-hospital cardiac arrest patients whereas the OHCA and CAHP score performed significantly better in OHCA patients. CONCLUSION The PROLOGUE score showed good prognostic accuracy for the early prediction of neurological outcome in adult cardiac arrest survivors in our cohort and might support early goals-of-care discussions in the ICU. Trial registration Not applicable.
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Affiliation(s)
- René Blatter
- Medical Communication and Psychosomatic Medicine, University Hospital Basel, Klingelbergstrasse 23, 4031, Basel, Switzerland
| | - Bulus Gökduman
- Medical Communication and Psychosomatic Medicine, University Hospital Basel, Klingelbergstrasse 23, 4031, Basel, Switzerland
| | - Simon A Amacher
- Medical Communication and Psychosomatic Medicine, University Hospital Basel, Klingelbergstrasse 23, 4031, Basel, Switzerland
- Intensive Care Unit, University Hospital Basel, Basel, Switzerland
- Department of Emergency Medicine, University Hospital Basel, Basel, Switzerland
| | - Christoph Becker
- Medical Communication and Psychosomatic Medicine, University Hospital Basel, Klingelbergstrasse 23, 4031, Basel, Switzerland
- Department of Emergency Medicine, University Hospital Basel, Basel, Switzerland
| | - Katharina Beck
- Medical Communication and Psychosomatic Medicine, University Hospital Basel, Klingelbergstrasse 23, 4031, Basel, Switzerland
| | - Sebastian Gross
- Medical Communication and Psychosomatic Medicine, University Hospital Basel, Klingelbergstrasse 23, 4031, Basel, Switzerland
| | - Kai Tisljar
- Intensive Care Unit, University Hospital Basel, Basel, Switzerland
| | - Raoul Sutter
- Intensive Care Unit, University Hospital Basel, Basel, Switzerland
- Medical Faculty, University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland
| | - Hans Pargger
- Intensive Care Unit, University Hospital Basel, Basel, Switzerland
- Medical Faculty, University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland
| | - Stephan Marsch
- Intensive Care Unit, University Hospital Basel, Basel, Switzerland
- Medical Faculty, University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland
| | - Sabina Hunziker
- Medical Communication and Psychosomatic Medicine, University Hospital Basel, Klingelbergstrasse 23, 4031, Basel, Switzerland.
- Medical Faculty, University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland.
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