1
|
Xu L, Fan Y, Zheng J, Guan J, Lin J, Wu J, Liu L, Wu R, Liu Y. Impacts of climate change and human activity on the potential distribution of Aconitum leucostomum in China. Sci Total Environ 2024; 912:168829. [PMID: 38030008 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.168829] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/05/2023] [Revised: 11/20/2023] [Accepted: 11/22/2023] [Indexed: 12/01/2023]
Abstract
Aconitum leucostomum is a poisonous grass that disturbs grassland populations and livestock development, and its spread is influenced by climate change and human activities. Therefore, exploring its potential distribution area under such conditions is crucial to maintain grassland ecological security and livestock development. The present study initially selected 39 variables that may influence the spatial distribution of A. leucostomum, including bioclimate, soil, topography, solar radiation, and human footprint data; the variables were screened by Spearman's correlation coefficient and the jackknife method. Twenty variables were finally identified, and three types of models based on the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model were constructed to predict the distribution of A. leucostomum within China under three shared economy pathways (SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585): A: prediction of environmental variables under the current climate model; B: prediction of environmental variables + human footprint under the current climate model; and C: prediction of environmental variables under the future climate model (including the 2030s, 2050s, and 2070s). The effects of human activities and climate change on the potential geographic distribution of A. leucostomum were explored separately. The results show that precipitation seasonality, human footprint, solar radiation and mean diurnal range are the main factors affecting the distribution of A. leucostomum. Human activities inhibit the spread of A. leucostomum, and climate change promotes its growth, with areas of high suitability and area variation mainly in northern Xinjiang and northern Yunnan. With climate change, in the future, the distribution center of A. leucostomum shows a tendency to migrate to the southeast on the horizontal gradient and to move to higher altitudes on the vertical gradient. This study provides a positive reference value for the control of A. leucostomum and the maintenance of grassland ecological security.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Li Xu
- College of Geography and Remote Sensing Science, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830046, China; Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Oasis Ecology, Urumqi 830046, China
| | - Yuan Fan
- College of Geography and Remote Sensing Science, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830046, China; Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Oasis Ecology, Urumqi 830046, China
| | - Jianghua Zheng
- College of Geography and Remote Sensing Science, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830046, China; Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Oasis Ecology, Urumqi 830046, China.
| | - Jingyun Guan
- College of Geography and Remote Sensing Science, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830046, China; College of Tourism, Xinjiang University of Finance & Economics, Urumqi 830012, China
| | - Jun Lin
- Xinjiang Office of Locust Control and Rodent Eradication Command, Urumqi 830001, China
| | - Jianguo Wu
- Xinjiang Office of Locust Control and Rodent Eradication Command, Urumqi 830001, China
| | - Liang Liu
- College of Geography and Remote Sensing Science, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830046, China; Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Oasis Ecology, Urumqi 830046, China
| | - Rui Wu
- College of Geography and Remote Sensing Science, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830046, China; Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Oasis Ecology, Urumqi 830046, China
| | - Yujia Liu
- College of Geography and Remote Sensing Science, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830046, China; Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Oasis Ecology, Urumqi 830046, China
| |
Collapse
|