Spatial signatures of an approaching regime shift in Posidonia oceanica meadows

Determining the proximity of ecosystems to tipping points is a critical yet complex task, heightened by the growing severity of climate change and local anthropogenic stressors on ecosystem integrity. Spatial Early Warning Signals (EWS) have been recognized for their potential in preemptively signaling regime shifts to degraded states, but their performance in natural systems remains uncertain. In this study, we investigated the performance of 'recovery length' - the spatial extent of recovery from a perturbation - and spatial EWS as early warnings of regime shifts in Posidonia oceanica meadows. Our experimental approach involved progressively thinning the P. oceanica canopy, from 0 to 100%, at the edge of a dead-matte area - a structure formed by dead P. oceanica rhizomes and colonized by algal turfs - to promote the propagation of algal turfs. We calculated recovery length as the distance from the dead-matte edge to the point where algal turfs colonized the canopy-thinned region. Our results showed a linear increase in recovery length with canopy thinning, successfully anticipated the degradation of P. oceanica. While spatial skewness decline with increased canopy degradation, other spatial EWS, such as Moran correlation at lag-1, low-frequency spatial spectra, and spatial variance, were ineffective in signaling this degradation. These findings underscore the potential of recovery length as a reliable early warning indicator of regime shifts in marine coastal ecosystems.

Drift-kelp suppresses foraging movement of overgrazing sea urchins

Sea urchins have the capacity to destructively overgraze kelp beds and cause a wholesale shift to an alternative and stable 'urchin barren' reef state. However, destructive grazing appears labile and contingent on behavioural shift. Changes in supply of allochthonous 'drift-kelp' food are hypothesised as a trigger of change in urchin grazing behaviour, yet field tests are lacking. Here we conduct a suite of in situ behavioural surveys and manipulative experiments within kelp beds and on urchin barrens to examine foraging movements and evidence for a behavioural switch to an 'overgrazing mode' by the Australian urchin Heliocidaris erythrogramma (Echinometridae). Tracking urchins using time-lapse photography revealed urchin foraging to conform to a random walk model within kelp beds and on barrens. However, many individuals tended towards local movement within proximal crevices and movement was reduced in kelp beds compared to barrens. Directional movement of urchins toward newly available kelp was experimentally inducible, consistent with locally observed 'mobile-feeding-fronts' that develop at barrens-kelp interfaces. Habitat-specific feeding modes were also evidenced by herbivory assays which revealed urchin grazing rates to be high on both drift-kelp and standing kelp on barren grounds, while drift-kelp but not standing kelp was consumed at high rates within kelp beds. Time-lapse tracking of urchin foraging before/after addition of drift-kelp revealed a reduction in foraging across the reef surface after drift-kelp capture. Collectively, results indicate that the availability of drift-kelp is a pivotal trigger in determining urchin feeding modes which thus mediates the shift between alternative stable states for rocky reef ecosystems.