Evaluation of three scoring systems for predicting renal prognosis in antineutrophil cytoplasmic antibody-associated glomerulonephritis

BACKGROUND

Antineutrophil cytoplasmic antibody (ANCA)-associated glomerulonephritis (AAGN) is characterized by rapidly progressive glomerulonephritis, and timely initiation of treatment and evaluation is critical to prevent the progression of renal disease to end-stage renal disease (ESRD). The aim of this study was to evaluate predictive value of the renal risk score (RRS), Birmingham vasculitis activity score (BVAS), and renal vascular lesions (RVLs) score for renal prognosis in AAGN.

METHODS

A retrospective analysis of ninety-four patients diagnosed with AAGN after renal biopsy was performed. The RRS, BVAS, and RVLs score were evaluated in relation to clinicopathologic features and renal prognosis. A receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) was used to evaluate their renal prognostic value.

RESULTS

The median follow-up time was 36 months. Thirty-eight patients progressed to ESRD. Survival analysis showed that renal prognosis worsened in the RRS group in order of low, medium, and high RRS (P < 0.05). Within the RVLs group, the renal prognosis of the groups with severe and moderate RVLs was worse than that of the group without RVLs (P = 0.012, P < 0.001), and the group with mild RVLs was close to that of the group without RVLs. ROC analysis showed that the AUC of RRS, BVAS, RVLs score, RVLs score combined with RRS (RVLs score & RRS, RR), RVLs score, and RRS combined with BVAS (RVLs score & RRS & BVAS, RRB) were 0.865, 0.624, 0.763, 0.910, and 0.942, respectively. The predictive power of RRB and RR was comparable and significantly better than the RRS, BVAS, and RVLs score. Based on simplicity and validity, RR was selected as the best predictor, and the relationship between RRS, RVLs score, and RR was calculated using a linear fit, resulting in the linear equation RR = -0.4766 + 0.1231 × RVLs score + 0.395 × RRS (P < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

In AAGN, the predictive power of RR for renal prognosis was superior to that of RRS, BVAS, and RVLs score. RR may serve as a new predictor of renal prognosis in AAGN.

A modified renal risk score for Chinese patients with antineutrophil cytoplasmic antibody-associated vasculitis

BACKGROUND

The renal risk score (RRS) is a useful tool to predict end-stage renal disease (ESRD) in patients with antineutrophil cytoplasmic antibody (ANCA)-associated vasculitis (AAV). The current study aimed to validate the predictive performance of RRS and to further modify this model in Chinese AAV patients.

METHODS

Two hundred and seventy-two patients diagnosed with AAV confirmed by renal biopsies were retrospectively enrolled from a single center. The RRS was calculated based on 3 categorical variables, i.e., the proportion of normal glomeruli, the proportion of interstitial fibrosis and tubular atrophy (IF/TA), and eGFR at biopsy, classifying these patients into low-, medium-, and high-risk groups. In addition, a modified model was developed based on the RRS and was further validated in another independent cohort of 117 AAV patients. The predictive performance of each model was evaluated according to discrimination and calibration.

RESULTS

Patients were classified by the RRS into low- (26.5%), medium- (46.7%), and high-risk (26.8%) groups, with 120-month renal survival rates of 93.3%, 57.2%, and 18.4%, respectively (P < 0.001). The RRS showed good discrimination but less satisfactory calibration. Therefore, a modified model with improved discrimination and calibration was developed in Chinese AAV patients, with eGFR, proportion of normal glomeruli (both as continuous variables), and IF/TA (< 25%, 25-50%, > 50%) included. Internal and external validation of the modified model were performed. Finally, an online risk prediction tool was developed based on the modified model.

CONCLUSIONS

The RRS was an independent predictor of ESRD of AAV patients. The modified model could predict the probability of ESRD for AAV patients with improved performance in Chinese AAV patients.

Evaluation of a newly proposed renal risk score for Japanese patients with ANCA-associated glomerulonephritis

BACKGROUND

We determined the usefulness and prognostic ability of the renal risk score (RRS), proposed in Europe, for Japanese patients with antineutrophil cytoplasmic antibody (ANCA)-associated glomerulonephritis (AAGN) and high myeloperoxidase (MPO)-ANCA positivity; these aspects remain to be verified.

METHODS

This retrospective study was conducted on 86 Japanese patients with new, biopsy-confirmed AAGN. We calculated the RRS and analyzed the relationship between this classification, and clinicopathological features and prognosis. We also compared the predictive values between RRS for endpoints including renal death and conventional prognostic tools for patients with AAGN.

RESULTS

There were 33, 37, and 16 patients in the low-, medium-, and high-risk groups, respectively. All patients were MPO-ANCA positive. The median follow-up period was 33 months; 16 (18.6%) patients progressed to end-stage renal disease (ESRD). In the high-risk group, 9/16 (56.3%) patients progressed to ESRD, and renal prognosis was significantly poorer than that in other groups (low-risk group, P < 0.001; medium-risk group, P = 0.004). In Cox multivariate regression analysis, RRS was an independent, poor renal prognostic factor (hazard ratio 5.22; 95% confidence interval 2.20-12.40; P < 0.001). The receiver-operating characteristic curves of the RRS for each endpoint were comparable with those of the 2010 histological classification and those of the severity classification of Japanese rapidly progressive glomerulonephritis.

CONCLUSIONS

This is the first study to report the usefulness of the RRS for predicting renal outcomes among Japanese patients with AAGN. Our predictive value of the RRS was comparable with that of conventional prognostic tools.