Effects of weather-related social distancing on city-scale transmission of respiratory viruses: a retrospective cohort study

Background

Unusually high snowfall in western Washington State in February 2019 led to widespread school and workplace closures. We assessed the impact of social distancing caused by this extreme weather event on the transmission of respiratory viruses.

Methods

Residual specimens from patients evaluated for acute respiratory illness at hospitals in the Seattle metropolitan area were screened for a panel of respiratory viruses. Transmission models were fit to each virus to estimate the magnitude reduction in transmission due to weather-related disruptions. Changes in contact rates and care-seeking were informed by data on local traffic volumes and hospital visits.

Results

Disruption in contact patterns reduced effective contact rates during the intervention period by 16 to 95%, and cumulative disease incidence through the remainder of the season by 3 to 9%. Incidence reductions were greatest for viruses that were peaking when the disruption occurred and least for viruses in an early epidemic phase.

Conclusion

High-intensity, short-duration social distancing measures may substantially reduce total incidence in a respiratory virus epidemic if implemented near the epidemic peak. For SARS-CoV-2, this suggests that, even when SARS-CoV-2 spread is out of control, implementing short-term disruptions can prevent COVID-19 deaths.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12879-021-06028-4.

[Epidemiology and molecular biology of respiratory syncytial virus among hospitalized children in Guangzhou from 2013 to 2017]

Objective: To understand the genetic variation and epidemiological characteristics of human respiratory syncytial virus (HRSV) in Guangzhou. Methods: Nasopharyngeal swabs specimens were collected from 0-6 year old children hospitalized with acute respiratory infection, then HRSV was tested and genotyped by RT-PCR. Phylogenetic tree was bulit using MEGA 6.0 software. NetNGlyc 1.0 server was used to predict the potential N-linked glycosylation sites. Results: A total of 1 225 nasopharyngeal specimens were collected, including 783 males and 442 females. The median (P(25), P(75)) age was 8 (3, 24) months. Among the 209 HRSV-positive cases (17.06%), 117 cases (55.98%) were HRSV-A and 92 cases (44.02%) were HRSV-B. The two distinct subgroups (HRSV-A and HRSV-B) alternately played dominant role to cause HRSV infection and exchange almost once every two years. The HRSV prevalence rate decreased with age. The HRSV-positive rate among children under 2 years old was 18.83% (196 cases), accounting for 93.78% of the total positive cases. There were 32 HRSV positive cases co-infected with at least one respiratory virus, with the co-infection rate of 15.31%. Phylogenetic tree analysis of the second hypervariable region (HVR2) of the G protein classified the HRSV-A specimens into ON1 (n=62) and NA1 (n=2) genotypes while all HRSV-B specimens belonged to BA genotype (n=53). The HVR2 of the G protein varied in using stop condon, amino acid substitutions, glycosylation sites. Conclusion: Children under 2 years old were the high risk population of HRSV infection in Guangzhou. ON1 genotype turned into a primary genetype of the HRSV-A subgroup while BA genotype dominated the HRSV-B subgroup. A greater diversification of amino acid substitutions, and some deletion and insertion of glycosylation sites embodied the polymorphism of G protein as main protective antigen.