Amundsen Sea Ice Loss Contributes to Australian Wildfires

Wildfires in Australia have attracted extensive attention in recent years, especially for the devastating 2019-2020 fire season. Remote forcing, such as those from tropical oceans, plays an important role in driving the abnormal weather conditions associated with wildfires. However, whether high latitude climate change can impact Australian fires is largely unclear. In this study, we reveal a robust relationship between Antarctic sea ice concentration (SIC), primarily over the Amundsen Sea region, with Australian springtime fire activity, by using reanalysis data sets, AMIP simulation results, and a state-of-the-art climate model simulation. Specifically, a diminished Amundsen SIC leads to the formation of a high-pressure system above Australia as a result of the eastward propagation of Rossby waves. Meanwhile, two strengthened meridional cells originating from the tropic and polar regions also enhance subsiding airflow in Australia, resulting in prolonged arid and high-temperature conditions. This mechanism explains about 28% of the variability of Australian fire weather and contributed more than 40% to the 2019 extreme burning event, especially in the eastern hotspots. These findings contribute to our understanding of polar-low latitude climate teleconnection and have important implications for projecting Australian fires as well as the global environment.

Theoretical and Computational Analysis of the Thermal Quasi-Geostrophic Model

This work involves theoretical and numerical analysis of the thermal quasi-geostrophic (TQG) model of submesoscale geophysical fluid dynamics (GFD). Physically, the TQG model involves thermal geostrophic balance, in which the Rossby number, the Froude number and the stratification parameter are all of the same asymptotic order. The main analytical contribution of this paper is to construct local-in-time unique strong solutions for the TQG model. For this, we show that solutions of its regularised version α -TQG converge to solutions of TQG as its smoothing parameter α → 0 and we obtain blow-up criteria for the α -TQG model. The main contribution of the computational analysis is to verify the rate of convergence of α -TQG solutions to TQG solutions as α → 0 , for example, simulations in appropriate GFD regimes.

Heat Extremes Driven by Amplification of Phase-Locked Circumglobal Waves Forced by Topography in an Idealized Atmospheric Model

Heatwaves are persistent temperature extremes associated with devastating impacts on human societies and ecosystems. In the midlatitudes, amplified quasi-stationary Rossby waves have been identified as a key mechanism for heatwave occurrence. Amplified waves with preferred longitudinal locations lead to concurrent extremes in specific locations. It is therefore important to identify the essential components in the climate system that contribute to phase-locking of wave patterns. Here, we investigate the role of dry atmospheric dynamics and topography in causing concurrent heatwaves by using an idealized general circulation model. Topography is included in the model experiments as a Gaussian mountain. Our results show that amplified Rossby waves exhibit clear phase-locking behavior and a decrease in the zonal phase speed when a large-scale localized topographic forcing is imposed, leading to concurrent heat extremes at preferred locations.

The life cycle of meridional heat flux peaks

Covariance between meridional wind and air temperature in the lower troposphere quantifies the poleward flux of dry static energy in the atmosphere; in the midlatitudes, this is primarily realised by baroclinic weather systems. It is shown that strong covariance between temperature and meridional wind results from both enhanced correlation and enhanced variance, and that the two evolve according to a distinct temporal structure akin to a life-cycle. Starting from a state of low correlation and variance, there is first a gradual build-up to modal growth at constant, high correlation, followed by a rapid decay at relatively low correlation values. This life-cycle evolution is observed most markedly over oceanic regions, and cannot be explained on purely statistical grounds. We find that local peaks of meridional heat flux are not exclusively linked to the action of individual weather systems and can affect the atmospheric circulation on larger length-scales through wave propagation along waveguides.

Planetary, inertia-gravity and Kelvin waves on the f-plane and β -plane in the presence of a uniform zonal flow

A linear wave theory of the Rotating Shallow-Water Equations (RSWE) is developed in a channel on the midlatitude f-plane or β -plane in the presence of a uniform mean zonal flow that is balanced geostrophically by a meridional gradient of the fluid surface height. Here we show that this surface height gradient is a potential vorticity (PV) source that generates Rossby waves even on the f-plane similar to the generation of these waves by PV sources such as the β -effect, shear of the mean flow and bottom topography. Numerical solutions of the RSWE show that the resulting Rossby, Poincaré and "Kelvin-like" waves differ from their counterparts without mean flow in both their phase speeds and meridional structures. Doppler shifting of the "no mean-flow" phase speeds does not account for the difference in phase speeds, and the meridional structure is often trapped near one of the channel's boundaries and does not oscillate across the channel. A comparison between the phase speeds of Rossby waves of the present theory and those of the Quasi-Geostrophic Shallow-Water (QG-SW) theory shows that the former can be 2.5 times faster than those of the QG-SW theory. The phase speed of "Kelvin-like" waves is modified by the presence of a mean flow compared to the classical gravity wave speed, and furthermore their meridional velocity does not vanish. The gaps between the dispersion curves of adjacent Poincaré modes are not uniform but change with the zonal wave number, and the convexity of the dispersion curves also changes with the zonal wave number. These results have implications for the propagation of Rossby wave packets: QG theory overestimates the zonal group velocity.

Nonlinear MHD Rossby wave interactions and persistent geomagnetic field structures

The geomagnetic field presents several stationary features that are thought to be linked to inhomogeneities at the core-mantle boundary. Particularly important stationary structures of the geomagnetic field are the flux lobes, which appear in pairs in mid- to high mid- to high latitudes. A recently discovered stratified layer at the top of the Earth's core poses important constraints on the dynamics at this layer and on the interaction of the core dynamics and the base of the mantle. In this article, we introduce the linear and nonlinear theories of magnetic Rossby waves in a thin shell at the top of the Earth's core. We study the nonlinear interaction of these waves in the presence of prescribed forcings at the base of the mantle of both a thermal and a topographic nature. We show that the combined effects of forcing and nonlinear interaction can lead the wave phases to be locked around a particular geographical longitude, generating a quasi- stationary flow pattern with a significant meridional component. The solutions of the system are shown to be analogous to atmospheric blocking phenomena. Therefore, we argue that persistent and long-lived structures of the geomagnetic field, such as the geomagnetic lobes, might be associated with a blocking at the top of the Earth's core due to nonlinear stationary waves.

The linearity of the El Niño teleconnection to the Amundsen Sea region

El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) drives interannual variability in West Antarctic climate through altering atmospheric circulation in the Amundsen Sea region (ASR). The El Niño-ASR teleconnection is known to be strongest in austral winter and spring, but its variation with El Niño amplitude is underexplored. This study uses experiments from the HadGEM3-A climate model to investigate the El Niño-ASR teleconnection for a range of imposed SST perturbations spanning weak (0.75 K) to strong (3 K) amplitudes. In austral winter, the El Niño-ASR teleconnection behaves linearly for El Niño amplitudes up to 2.25 K, but is found to weaken for stronger forcing (3 K). The anomalous Rossby wave source in the subtropical South Pacific increases monotonically with El Niño amplitude. However, a Rossby wave reflection surface originally located in the western South Pacific sector extends progressively eastward with increasing El Niño amplitude, reducing wave propagation into the ASR. The wave reflection surface is associated with curvature in the upper tropospheric zonal winds which intensifies as the subtropical jet strengthens under El Niño forcing. In contrast, the El Niño-ASR teleconnection in austral summer, which more closely resembles the Southern Annular Mode, is found to increase linearly for El Niño amplitudes up to 3 K. The results explicitly demonstrate that a linear approximation of the El Niño teleconnection to the ASR is reasonable based on the range of El Niño amplitudes observed in recent history.

Northern Hemisphere Stationary Waves in a Changing Climate

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Stationary waves are planetary-scale longitudinal variations in the time-averaged atmospheric circulation. Here, we consider the projected response of Northern Hemisphere stationary waves to climate change in winter and summer. We discuss how the response varies across different metrics, identify robust responses, and review proposed mechanisms.

RECENT FINDINGS

Climate models project shifts in the prevailing wind patterns, with corresponding impacts on regional precipitation, temperature, and extreme events. Recent work has improved our understanding of the links between stationary waves and regional climate and identified robust stationary wave responses to climate change, which include an increased zonal lengthscale in winter, a poleward shift of the wintertime circulation over the Pacific, a weakening of monsoonal circulations, and an overall weakening of stationary wave circulations, particularly their divergent component and quasi-stationary disturbances.

SUMMARY

Numerous factors influence Northern Hemisphere stationary waves, and mechanistic theories exist for only a few aspects of the stationary wave response to climate change. Idealized studies have proven useful for understanding the climate responses of particular atmospheric circulation features and should be a continued focus of future research.

Could hydrodynamic Rossby waves explain the westward drift?

A novel theory for the origin of the westward drift of the Earth's magnetic field is proposed, based upon the propagation of hydrodynamic Rossby waves in the liquid outer core. These waves have the obscure property that their crests always progress eastwards-but, for a certain subset, energy can nevertheless be transmitted westwards. In fact, this subset corresponds to sheet-like flow structures, extended in both the axial and radial directions, which are likely to be preferentially excited by convective upwellings in the Earth's rapidly rotating outer core. To enable their analysis, the quasi-geostrophic (QG) approximation is employed, which assumes horizontal motions to be independent of distance along the rotation axis, yet accounts for variations in the container height (i.e. the slope of the core-mantle boundary). By projecting the momentum equation onto flows of a QG form, a general equation governing their evolution is derived, which is then adapted for the treatment of two initial value problems-in both Cartesian and spherical geometries-which demonstrate the preference for westward energy propagation by the waves in question. The merits of this mechanism as an explanation for westward drift are discussed.