Determining and forecasting drought susceptibility in southwestern Iran using multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) coupled with CA-Markov model

Forecasting drought and determining relevant data to predict drought are an important topic for decision-makers and planners. It is critical to predicting drought in the south of Fars province, an important agricultural center in Iran located in arid and semi-arid climates. The purpose of this study was to generate a drought map in 2019 using 12 parameters: altitude, aridity index, erosion, groundwater depth, land use, PET (Potential evapotranspiration), precipitation days, precipitation, slope, soil texture, soil salinity, and distance to river, and predict drought maps in 2030 and 2040 using the cellular automata (CA)-Markov model spatially. The fuzzy method was first used to homogenize the data. Next, by evaluating each parameter, the weight of each parameter was calculated using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), and a map of drought-prone areas was generated. The results of the fuzzy-AHP method showed that the eastern and southeastern regions of the study area were prone to drought. The four most predictive parameters in causing drought, i.e., aridity index, PET, precipitation, and soil texture, were selected using the Best search method and were then chosen as the input to determine drought mapping using the fuzzy and AHP methods. Finally, the CA-Markov model was used to predict future drought maps, and the results showed that in 2030 and 2040 the drought situation in the east and south of the study area would intensify.

Cohort profile: The Hoveyzeh Cohort Study (HCS): A prospective population-based study on non-communicable diseases in an Arab community of Southwest Iran

Background: The Hoveyzeh cohort study (HCS) is a population-based cohort study that conducted in Hoveyzeh County (South-west Iran). HCS focus on common chronic diseases, disorders and risk factors of NCDs in the Arab ethnicity.

Methods: A total number of 10009 participants (35-70 years old) were recruited in this prospective cohort study from May 2016 to August 2018. The HCS data were gathered by trained interviewer through interviewer-administered questionnaires. Also anthropometric measurements, physical examinations, clinical assessments, ophthalmology evaluation, auditory examinations, respiratory and cardiovascular assessments was conducted by means of standard instruments. Biological samples including blood, urine, hair, and nail collected and stored in the biobank.

Results: The overall participation rate was 82.7%. The prevalence of obesity was 27.4% in males and 47% in females. Cigarette smoking prevalence was 20.9% (40.6 % in men and 7.6 % in women). Prevalence of major non communicable diseases such as diabetes, hypertension, metabolic syndrome, cardiac ischemic, myocardial infarction and stroke was 22.2%, 26.4% 31.9 %, 13.6%, 1.85% and 1.6% respectively.

Conclusion: Considering the high prevalence of obesity and smoking in the population of Hoveyzeh and since the important role of these risk factors in development of common non communicable diseases, this issue should be taken into consideration and the necessary interventions in this context must be considered to modify lifestyle. The HCS is the only comprehensive cohort in the region, enabling it to provide valuable evidence about NCDs for a wide geographical area covering millions of people in both Iran and Iraq.

Human cystic echinococcosis in southwest Iran: a 15-year retrospective epidemiological study of hospitalized cases

Background

Cystic echinococcosis (CE) is considered as a neglected disease with significant mortality and morbidity in most of the developing countries. The current study aimed to retrospectively assess the demographic and epidemiologic features of human CE surgical cases in a 15-year period in Fars province, southwestern Iran.

Methods

A 15-year (2004–2018) retrospective study was conducted to find out the epidemiological and clinical picture of CE in patients who undergone surgeries for CE in two main hospitals in Fars Province, southwestern Iran. Hospital records were reviewed, and data were retrieved from each CE patient’s record.

Results

A total of 501 CE surgical cases were recorded during a 15-year period, corresponding to an average annual incidence of 33.4 and a surgical incidence rate of 0.74/100,000 population. Of these, 242 (48.6%) were male, and 256 (52.4%) were female. Patients’ age ranged from 2 to 96 years, with a mean age of 34.92 (± 19.87) years. A significantly higher rate of CE cases was noted in subject’s ≥ 50 years of age. The highest frequency of cases (62:12.5%) was recorded in the year 2017. The most commonly involved organs were liver (339 cases; 57.8%) and lung (279 cases; 47.6%). Concurrent involvement of two organs was seen in 58 (9.9%) cases of both lung and liver, 10 (1.6%) cases of lung and other locations (but not liver), and 23 (3.9%) cases of liver and other locations (but not lung). Reoperation was noted in 67 (13.4%) of the cases. The size of the lung hydatid cyst varied, ranging between 2 and 24 cm (mean = 7.33, SD = 3.737). The size of liver hydatid cysts ranged from 1 to 26 cm (mean 9.04, SD = 4.275).

Conclusion

The findings of the current study demonstrated a nearly constant prevalence of CE during the last 15 years in southern Iran. Further studies are needed to find out the reasons behind the recurrence of the disease, which is substantial, in surgically-treated patients.

The Fauna and Active Season of Mosquitoes in West of Fars Province, Southwest of Iran

Culicidae are highly important for public health as they can be vectors of diseases and are responsible for a wide spectrum of infections. Five collection sites were selected randomly with regards to existing facilities in Firouzabad County. For collecting larvae and total catch for adult mosquitoes, sampling was carried out by dipping technique for collecting larvae and total catch for adult mosquitoes. A total of 689 adults and 1313 larvae of Culicidae were collected, of which 3 genera and 6 species of Culicidae were recognized, namely, Anopheles superpictus, Anopheles d’thali, Culex sinaiticus, Culex theileri, Culex mimeticus, and Culiseta longiareolata. Cx. theileri was the most frequent Culicidae collected at Firouzabad, with a total of 613 and 247 larval and adult specimens, respectively. The highest number of mosquitoes was collected in June (31.1%) and the lowest in May (3.4%). The mean temperatures in June and May were 31.3˚C and 28.2˚C, respectively. We found some vectors that are of medical and veterinary importance; our results could be applied in vector control programs that aim at eradication or control of mosquitoes in this area.

Prevalence and risk factors of intestinal protozoan infections: a population-based study in rural areas of Boyer-Ahmad district, Southwestern Iran

BACKGROUND

Parasitic infections are still a significant health problem in rural areas in developing countries including Iran. There is no recent population-based data about the prevalence of human intestinal parasites in most rural areas of Iran. The current study aimed to determine the prevalence of intestinal protozoan infection in inhabitants of rural areas of Boyer-Ahmad district, Southwestern Iran.

METHODS

A total of 1025 stool samples were collected from the inhabitant of 50 randomly selected villages in Boyer-Ahmad Township. The stool samples were evaluated by parasitological methods including, direct wet-mounting, formalin ethyl acetate concentration, zinc sulfate floatation, and Trichrome permanent stain for detection of protozoan infections. Diarrheic samples were further evaluated with a modified Ziehl-Neelsen staining method for detection of coccidian parasites.

RESULTS

The prevalence of both pathogenic and nonpathogenic intestinal parasites in the population was 37.5% (385 out of 1025 cases), some individual with multiple infections. Giardia lamblia was detected in 179 (17.46%), Blastocystis hominis in 182 (17.76%), Entamoeba histolytica/dispar in 9 (0.87%), Endolimax nana in 216 (21.07%), Entamoeba coli in 151 (14.73%), Ioedamoeba butschlii in 45 (4.39%), Chillomastix mesnili in 22 (2.14%), Trichomonas hominis in 2 (0.19%) and Dientamoeba fragillis in 2 (0.19%) of cases. Multivariate logistic regression revealed significant associations between protozoan infection (pathogenic protozoa) and contact with animals (OR yes/no = 2.22, p < 0.001) and educational status (OR higher/illiterate = 0.40, P = 0.01).

CONCLUSION

Findings of this study demonstrated that protozoan infection rate in rural areas of southwestern Iran is still high and remained as a challenging health problem in these areas.

Molecular Evaluation of a Case of Visceral Leishmaniasis Due to Leishmania tropica in Southwestern Iran

We describe a case of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) due to Leishmania tropica in a 50-year-old Iranian man lived in a VL-endemic area in southwest of Iran. The patient presented with a 3-month history of fever and splenomegaly. Clinical signs and serological findings were suggestive of VL. Spleen biopsy was taken from the patient and intracellular forms of Leishmania amastigotes was seen in Giemsa stained smears. The patient was treated with pentavalent antimonial compound with complete resolution of his systemic signs and symptoms. DNA was extracted from the microscopic slides of the spleen biopsy and the nagt (N-Acetylglucosamine-1-Phosphate Transferase) gene of Leishmania was PCR-amplified. Sequence analysis of the PCR product demonstrated that the case has 99% identity with those of available sequences of L. tropica. Intra-species variation within isolate was 0-0.1%; whereas, inter-species differences of the isolate with those of L. major and L. infantum was significantly higher.