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Zhou L, Yang H, Pan W, Xu J, Feng Y, Zhang W, Shao Z, Li T, Li S, Huang T, Wang C, Li W, Li M, He S, Zhan Y, Pan M. Association between meteorological factors and the epidemics of influenza (sub)types in a subtropical basin of Southwest China. Epidemics 2022; 41:100650. [PMID: 36375312 DOI: 10.1016/j.epidem.2022.100650] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/06/2020] [Revised: 10/13/2022] [Accepted: 10/27/2022] [Indexed: 11/11/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The effects of climatic conditions on the prevalence of individual influenza (sub)types are not well understood in the subtropics. This study aims to evaluate the associations between meteorological factors and seasonal epidemics of A(H3N2), A(H1N1)pdm09, and type B influenza viruses, as well as to estimate the interactions between climatic variables in a subtropical basin region. METHODS The seasonality of influenza (sub)types during 2010-2019 were characterized in Chengdu Plain Economic Zone, a densely populated and highly humid plain area in Sichuan Basin in subtropical Southwest China. Generalized additive models were adopted to assess the independent exposure-response relationship between meteorological variables and influenza prevalence. The interactions of meteorological variables were further estimated using bivariate response surface models and strata models. RESULTS Our analyses indicated that the temperature, relative humidity, and absolute humidity have exhibited a major influence on influenza infection in Chengdu Plain Economic Zone. Low temperature was shown to promote the prevalence of A(H1N1)pdm09 and type B in winter-spring days at all levels of relative humidity. High risk of A(H3N2) infections was observed at low temperature or high temperature, and at higher relative humidity. Moreover, absolute humidity decreased or increased influenza (sub)type infections within different ranges. CONCLUSIONS This study found different nonlinear relationships between meteorological factors and the seasonality of influenza (sub)types, as well as significant interactive effects between climatic variables, contributing to the research on the climate drivers of influenza prevalence in warm-humid basin regions in the subtropics.
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Affiliation(s)
- Linlin Zhou
- Department of Pathogenic Biology, West China School of Basic Medical Sciences & Forensic Medicine, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610041, China
| | - Huiping Yang
- Sichuan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Chengdu 610041, China
| | - Wen Pan
- College of Computer Science, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610065, China
| | - Jianan Xu
- Sichuan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Chengdu 610041, China
| | - Yuliang Feng
- Sichuan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Chengdu 610041, China
| | - Weihua Zhang
- College of Computer Science, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610065, China
| | - Zerui Shao
- College of Computer Science, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610065, China
| | - Tianshu Li
- Sichuan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Chengdu 610041, China
| | - Shuang Li
- Sichuan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Chengdu 610041, China
| | - Ting Huang
- Sichuan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Chengdu 610041, China
| | - Chuang Wang
- Department of Medical Technology, West China School of Public Health, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610041, China
| | - Wanyi Li
- Department of Pathogenic Biology, West China School of Basic Medical Sciences & Forensic Medicine, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610041, China
| | - Mingyuan Li
- Department of Pathogenic Biology, West China School of Basic Medical Sciences & Forensic Medicine, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610041, China
| | - Shusen He
- Sichuan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Chengdu 610041, China
| | - Yu Zhan
- Department of Environmental Science and Engineering, Sichuan University, Chengdu, Sichuan 610065, China.
| | - Ming Pan
- Sichuan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Chengdu 610041, China.
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