Performance of the non-laboratory based 2019 WHO cardiovascular disease risk prediction chart in Eastern Sub-Saharan Africa

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The World Health Organization (WHO) updated its cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk prediction charts in 2019 to cover 21 global regions. We aimed to assess the performance of an updated non-lab-based risk chart for people with normoglycaemia, impaired fasting glucose (IFG), and diabetes in Eastern Sub-Saharan Africa.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We used data from six WHO STEPS surveys conducted in Eastern Sub-Saharan Africa between 2012 and 2017. We included 9857 participants aged 40-69 years with no CVD history. The agreement between lab- and non-lab-based charts was assessed using Bland-Altman plots and Cohen's kappa. The median age of the participants was 50 years (25-75th percentile: 44-57). The pooled median 10-year CVD risk was 3 % (25-75th percentile: 2-5) using either chart. According to the estimation, 7.5 % and 8.4 % of the participants showed an estimated CVD risk ≥10 % using the non-lab-based chart or the lab-based chart, respectively. The concordance between the two charts was 91.3 %. The non-lab-based chart underestimated the CVD risk in 57.6 % of people with diabetes. In the Bland-Altman plots, the limits of agreement between the two charts were widest among people with diabetes (-0.57-7.54) compared to IFG (-1.75-1.22) and normoglycaemia (-1.74-1.06). Kappa values of 0.79 (substantial agreement), 0.78 (substantial agreement), and 0.43 (moderate agreement) were obtained among people with normoglycaemia, IFG, and diabetes, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Given limited healthcare resources, the updated non-lab-based chart is suitable for CVD risk estimation in the general population without diabetes. Lab-based risk estimation is suitable for individuals with diabetes to avoid risk underestimation.

Performance of WHO updated cardiovascular disease risk prediction charts in a low-resource setting - Findings from a community-based survey in Puducherry, India

BACKGROUND AND AIM

The World Health Organization has revised the cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk prediction charts in 2019 for each of the 21 Global Burden of Disease regions. These charts (non-lab and lab versions) estimate the total CVD risk in an individual, of which the non-lab is for low-resource settings. We aimed to estimate the burden of ten-year risk of fatal or non-fatal CVD event in the district of Puducherry in India using 'non-lab' and 'lab' versions of WHO CVD risk prediction charts, and to evaluate the agreement between them.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We included 710 individuals aged 40-69 years who participated in a district wide non-communicable diseases survey conducted in Puducherry, India, during 2019-20. Both charts use information on age, gender, systolic blood pressure and smoking status. Additionally, lab-chart requires individual's status on diabetes mellitus and total cholesterol while non-lab requires body mass index. Population in different CVD risk levels was presented using proportions (95% confidence intervals). Agreement between lab and non-lab charts was evaluated using Cohen's Kappa (k). The lab and non-lab charts estimated 3% (95% CI: 1.7-4.2) and none of the population respectively, to have high risk (≥20%) for fatal or non-fatal CVD event over the next ten years. Both the charts showed 89.4% (95% CI:87.2%-91.7%) concordance in CVD risk prediction indicating a good level of agreement (k = 0.653).

CONCLUSION

WHO updated CVD risk prediction charts are feasible to apply when data is available and there is good agreement between non-lab and lab based charts.