A Nomogram for Pretreatment Prediction of Response to Induction Chemotherapy in Locally Advanced Hypopharyngeal Carcinoma

Background

Induction chemotherapy (IC) significantly improves the rate of larynx preservation; however, some patients could not benefit from it. Hence, it is of clinical importance to predict the response to IC to determine the necessity of IC. We aimed to develop a clinical nomogram for predicting the treatment response to IC in locally advanced hypopharyngeal carcinoma.

Methods

We retrospectively include a total of 127 patients with locally advanced hypopharyngeal carcinoma who underwent MRI scans prior to IC between January 2014 and December 2017. The clinical characteristics were collected, which included age, sex, tumor location, invading sites, histological grades, T-stage, N-stage, overall stage, size of the largest lymph node, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, hemoglobin concentration, and platelet count. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression was used to select the significant predictors of IC response. A nomogram was built based on the results of stepwise logistic regression analysis. The predictive performance and clinical usefulness of the nomogram were determined based on the area under the curve (AUC), calibration curve, and decision curve.

Results

Age, T-stage, hemoglobin, and platelet were four independent predictors of IC treatment response, which were incorporated into the nomogram. The AUC of the nomogram was 0.860 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.780-0.940), which was validated using 3-fold cross-validation (AUC, 0.864; 95% CI: 0.755-0.973). The calibration curve demonstrated good consistency between the prediction by the nomogram and actual observation. Decision curve analysis shows that the nomogram was clinically useful.

Conclusion

The proposed nomogram resulted in an accurate prediction of the efficacy of IC for patients with locally advanced hypopharyngeal carcinoma.