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Liu R, Ma Z, Gasparrini A, de la Cruz A, Bi J, Chen K. Integrating Augmented In Situ Measurements and a Spatiotemporal Machine Learning Model To Back Extrapolate Historical Particulate Matter Pollution over the United Kingdom: 1980-2019. Environ Sci Technol 2023; 57:21605-21615. [PMID: 38085698 DOI: 10.1021/acs.est.3c05424] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/27/2023]
Abstract
Historical PM2.5 data are essential for assessing the health effects of air pollution exposure across the life course or early life. However, a lack of high-quality data sources, such as satellite-based aerosol optical depth before 2000, has resulted in a gap in spatiotemporally resolved PM2.5 data for historical periods. Taking the United Kingdom as an example, we leveraged the light gradient boosting model to capture the spatiotemporal association between PM2.5 concentrations and multi-source geospatial predictors. Augmented PM2.5 from PM10 measurements expanded the spatiotemporal representativeness of the ground measurements. Observations before and after 2009 were used to train and test the models, respectively. Our model showed fair prediction accuracy from 2010 to 2019 [the ranges of coefficients of determination (R2) for the grid-based cross-validation are 0.71-0.85] and commendable back extrapolation performance from 1998 to 2009 (the ranges of R2 for the independent external testing are 0.32-0.65) at the daily level. The pollution episodes in the 1980s and pollution levels in the 1990s were also reproduced by our model. The 4-decade PM2.5 estimates demonstrated that most regions in England witnessed significant downward trends in PM2.5 pollution. The methods developed in this study are generalizable to other data-rich regions for historical air pollution exposure assessment.
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Affiliation(s)
- Riyang Liu
- State Key Laboratory of Pollution Control and Resource Reuse, School of the Environment, Nanjing University, Nanjing, Jiangsu 210023, People's Republic of China
- Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, Connecticut 06520, United States
- Yale Center on Climate Change and Health, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, Connecticut 06520, United States
| | - Zongwei Ma
- State Key Laboratory of Pollution Control and Resource Reuse, School of the Environment, Nanjing University, Nanjing, Jiangsu 210023, People's Republic of China
| | - Antonio Gasparrini
- Environment & Health Modelling (EHM) Lab, Department of Public Health Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London WC1H 9SH, United Kingdom
| | - Arturo de la Cruz
- Environment & Health Modelling (EHM) Lab, Department of Public Health Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London WC1H 9SH, United Kingdom
| | - Jun Bi
- State Key Laboratory of Pollution Control and Resource Reuse, School of the Environment, Nanjing University, Nanjing, Jiangsu 210023, People's Republic of China
| | - Kai Chen
- Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, Connecticut 06520, United States
- Yale Center on Climate Change and Health, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, Connecticut 06520, United States
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