[Coal Control and Carbon Reduction Path in Henan Province's Power Industry Under the Carbon Peak and Neutralization Target: A Medium- and Long-term Study]

Achieving peak carbon dioxide emissions and accelerating decarbonization progress in the power industry is of paramount significance to Henan Province's objective of achieving carbon peak and neutrality. In this study, the Carbon Emission-Energy Integrated Model (iCEM) was employed to conduct scenario studies on the coal reduction and carbon reduction paths under the "dual-carbon" goal of Henan's power industry. The results indicated that, by considering measures such as optimizing the power source structure and technological progress, Henan Province's power industry carbon emissions will reach their peak between 2028-2033, with coal consumption in the power industry continuing to grow during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period. With a peak range between 2027-2031, the peak value increased by 1881, 1592, and 11.48 million tce, respectively, compared with that in 2020. To control coal in Henan Province under the constraint of carbon peak goals, it is proposed to develop clean energy sources such as wind and solar power, use more low-carbon or zero-carbon heat sources, increase the proportion of external electricity supply, and enhance energy-saving transformation in coal-fired power plants. Accelerating the elimination of backward units and energy-saving transformation of existing units, accelerating non-fossil energy development, advanced planning for external electricity supply, improving market mechanisms for the exit of coal-fired power plants and peak regulation, increasing system flexibility, and accelerating external policies to ensure clean energy security are effective paths for controlling coal and reducing carbon emissions in Henan's power industry. Additionally, inland nuclear power layout is one of the crucial paths to alleviate coal control pressure in Henan Province and achieve "dual-carbon" goals during the carbon-neutral stage. Therefore, it is imperative to conduct research on demonstrations in advance. Henan Province is highly dependent on energy from other provinces, and the power supply and demand situation in Henan Province will become increasingly tense in the future. It is necessary to support Henan Province from the State Grid and coordinate the construction of inter-provincial and inter-regional power transmission channels.

[Coal-carbon-pollutant Coordinated Control of Coal Chemical Industry Under Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutrality Constraints]

Under carbon peak and carbon neutrality constraints, the coal chemical industry should take stricter measures to tackle carbon reduction. Based on the intensity differences of five major coal and carbon reduction measures applied by the coal chemical industry, which include raw material structure adjustment, fuel structure adjustment, energy-saving technology transformation, terminal capture technology, and industrial structure adjustment, this study adopted the downstream sector demand method and project method, combined with the air pollution reduction model, to predict three scenarios (benchmark, policy, and enhancement) of coal chemical industry peak year and peak amount of coal consumption and carbon dioxide emission, associated with air pollutant reduction row effects. The results showed that coal consumption under the benchmark and policy scenarios of the coal chemical industry is expected to reach a peak in the late period of China's "14^th Five-Year Plan", with peak values of 0.96 billion and 0.93 billion tons, respectively. By contrast, under the enhanced scenario, it is expected to peak in the early period of the "14^th Five-Year Plan" with a value of 0.91 billion tons. The carbon peak will arrive in the late period of the "15^th Five-Year Plan" under the benchmark scenario but in the early and late period of the "14^th Five-Year Plan" under the policy and enhanced scenarios, with peak values of approximately 0.64 billion, 0.57 billion, and 0.55 billion tons, respectively. Controlling the construction scale of new coal chemical projects, tapping the space for raw material substitution, and speeding up the energy-saving technological transformation are important measures for coal and carbon control in the coal chemical industry. The implementation of coal and carbon reduction measures of the coal chemical industry will coordinately reduce air pollutant emissions, such as SO₂, NO_x, PM, and VOCs by 37, 43, 11, and 28 thousand tons per year after 2035.

[Roadmap of Coal Control and Carbon Reduction in the Steel Industry Under the Carbon Peak and Neutralization Target]

The low-carbon green transformation and the earlier peak in coal consumption and carbon emissions of the steel industry will make important contributions to the overall carbon peaking goal and high-quality economic development in China. Based on the carbon emission-energy integration model, we conducted a scenario study on the path of coal control and carbon reduction under the "carbon peak and neutralization" target of the steel industry. The results showed that the steel industry is likely to achieve a carbon peak in the early stage of the "14^th Five-Year Plan," with a peak value of 1.64-1.67 billion tons (including process and indirect emissions), and coal will also peak together as the main form of energy consumption, with a peak value of 460-470 million tons of standard coal (including coke). In the most aggressive intensification scenario, coal consumption and carbon emissions will drop to 38% and 49%, respectively, in 2035. The yield of crude steel will largely dominate the carbon peaking of the steel industry. Promoting the short process of all-scrap electric furnaces and increasing the utilization of scrap steel are the most important measures to control coal and reduce carbon in the carbon peak stage. The roadmap for coal control and carbon reduction based on the forecasted results showed that, on the demand side, the yield of crude steel will reach its peak and begin to decline, with the level of industrialization and urbanization gradually reaching the level of developed countries, even without considering the constraints of the carbon peak and neutralization target, the growth of steel demand brought about by the construction of new energy-related infrastructure during the period of achieving carbon neutrality is relatively limited. In terms of technological progress, promoting the application of long-process energy-saving and carbon-reducing technology is a cost-effective measure in the short term, and by increasing the average ratio of blast furnace pellets at the same time, the carbon capture and storage technology will have greater carbon emission reduction potential in the long term. In terms of production capacity structure, promoting the short process of all-scrap electric furnaces is the main measure of the steel industry in the carbon peak stage, and the proportion of electric furnace steel will increase to 15%-20% by the end of the "14^th Five-Year Plan" period. Under the carbon neutrality target, hydrogen metallurgy is the only production process with ultra-low carbon emission potential. In the future, with the increase in the supply of green hydrogen produced by renewable energy or waste heat, hydrogen metallurgy will become a steel production process that is as important as the short process of electric furnaces based on scrap steel.