Predictive value of 8-year blood pressure measures in intracerebral hemorrhage risk over 5 years

AIMS

The relationships between long-term blood pressure (BP) measures and intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH), as well as their predictive ability on ICH, were unclear. We aimed to investigate the independent associations of multiple BP measures with subsequent 5-year ICH risk, as well as the incremental value of these measures over a single-point BP measurement in ICH risk prediction.

METHODS

We included 12,398 participants from the China Kadoorie Biobank (CKB) who completed three surveys every four to five years. The following long-term BP measures were calculated: mean, minimum, maximum, standard deviation, coefficient of variation, average real variability, and cumulative BP exposure (cumBP). Cox proportional hazard models were used to examine the associations between these measures and ICH. The potential incremental value of these measures in ICH risk prediction was assessed using Harrell's C statistics, continuous net reclassification improvement (cNRI), and relative integrated discrimination improvement (rIDI).

RESULTS

The hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) of incident ICH associated with per SD increase in cumSBP and cumDBP were 1.62 (1.25, 2.10) and 1.59 (1.23, 2.07), respectively. When cumBP was added to the conventional 5-year ICH risk prediction model, the C-statistic change was 0.009 (-0.001, 0.019), the cNRI was 0.267 (0.070, 0.464), and the rIDI was 18.2% (5.8%, 30.7%). Further subgroup analyses revealed a consistent increase in cNRI and rIDI in men, rural residents, and participants without diabetes. Other long-term BP measures showed no statistically significant associations with incident ICH and generally did not improve model performance.

CONCLUSION

The nearly 10-year cumBP was positively associated with an increased 5-year risk of ICH and could significantly improve risk reclassification for the ICH risk prediction model that included single-point BP measurement.

Effect of 10-year cumulative blood pressure exposure on atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease of different age groups: kailuan cohort study

Background

The level at which cumulative blood pressure (BP) can increase the risk of ASCVD in different age groups remains unclear. This study aimed to investigate the association of 10-year cumulative BP levels with the long-term risk of ASCVD of different age groups.

Methods

Cumulative BP exposure was assessed using the time-weighted average (TWA) BP divided into four BP groups. The participants were also divided into four groups according to their baseline age (<50, 50-59, 60-69, or ≥70 years). The association between TWA BP and the risk of ASCVD was assessed by age group using multivariate Cox models. The China-PAR prediction model was used to assess the ability of TWA BP to predict ASCVD.

Results

In the group aged <50 years, the hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals for the risk of ASCVD were 2.66 (1.04-6.80), 3.38 (1.54-7.43), and 3.13 (1.36-7.24) for the elevated BP, stage 1 hypertension, and stage 2 hypertension groups, respectively, when compared with the normal BP group. There was a significant difference in the risk of ASCVD between the age groups, with participants aged <50 years having the highest risk, followed by those aged 50-59, 60-69, and ≥70 years.

Conclusions

The risk of ASCVD with high cumulative BP exposure was age-dependent, with a gradual decrease in risk with increasing age.

Cumulative Blood Pressure in Early Adulthood and Coronary Artery Calcium and Carotid Intima-Media Thickness in Middle Age Among Adults With Maintained Blood Pressure of <130/80 mm Hg: A Post Hoc Analysis

BACKGROUND

To examine the association of blood pressure (BP) levels with coronary artery calcium and carotid intima-media thickness (CIMT) in people with maintained BP below the hypertension range based on current definitions.

METHODS AND RESULTS

In this post hoc analysis of the CARDIA (Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults) prospective observational cohort study conducted in 4 US cities, we examined 1233 study participants (mean [SD] age at year 20 examination was 45.3 [3.5] years; 65.4% women). Participants with BP assessments across 20 years and untreated BP of <130/80 mm Hg were included. Multivariable logistic or linear regression models, adjusted for age, sex, race, education, diabetes, body mass index, serum creatinine, smoking, alcohol intake, physical activity, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and triglycerides, were used to examine the associations between cumulative BP measures with coronary artery calcium and CIMT. Higher long-term cumulative systolic BP and pulse pressure across early adulthood were associated with higher CIMT (both P<0.001) but not coronary artery calcium in the multivariable-adjusted model. The associations remained significant even after adjustment for a single BP measurement at year 0 or year 20. The odds ratio (OR) of a maximal CIMT >1.01 mm was ≈50% higher per 1-SD increase in systolic BP (OR, 1.50 [95% CI, 1.19-1.88]) and pulse pressure (OR, 1.46 [95% CI, 1.19-1.79]). Similar findings for CIMT were observed among individuals with a coronary artery calcium score of 0 as well as those with maintained BP of <120/80 mm Hg throughout young adulthood.

CONCLUSIONS

Long-term cumulative systolic BP and pulse pressure across early adulthood within the nonhypertensive range were associated with adverse midlife alterations in CIMT.

Longitudinal blood pressure patterns and cardiovascular disease risk

Observational and interventional studies have unequivocally demonstrated that "present", i.e. single-occasion, blood pressure is one of the key determinants of cardiovascular disease risk. Over the past two decades, however, numerous publications have suggested that longitudinal blood pressure data and assessment of long-term blood pressure exposure provide incremental prognostic value over present blood pressure. These studies have used several different indices to quantify the overall exposure to blood pressure, such as time-averaged blood pressure, cumulative blood pressure, blood pressure trajectory patterns, and age of hypertension onset. This review summarises existing research on the association between these indices and hard cardiovascular outcomes, outlines the strengths and weaknesses of these indices, and provides an overview of how longitudinal blood pressure changes can be measured and used to improve cardiovascular disease risk prediction.KEY MESSAGESNumerous recent publications have examined the relation between cardiovascular disease and long-term blood pressure (BP) exposure, quantified using indices such as time-averaged BP, cumulative BP, BP trajectory patterns, and age of hypertension onset.This review summarises existing research on the association between these indices and hard cardiovascular outcomes, outlines the strengths and weaknesses of these indices, and provides an overview of how longitudinal BP changes can be measured and used to improve cardiovascular disease risk prediction.Although longitudinal BP indices seem to predict cardiovascular outcomes better than present BP, there are considerable differences in the clinical feasibility of these indices along with a limited number of prospective data.

Can Antihypertensive Treatment Restore the Risk of Cardiovascular Disease to Ideal Levels?: The Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) Study and the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA)

Background

It is unclear whether antihypertensive treatment can restore cardiovascular disease risk to the risk level of persons with ideal blood pressure (BP) levels.

Methods and Results

Data from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) and the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) study were analyzed. Outcomes were compared among participants without or with antihypertensive treatment at 3 BP levels: <120/<80 mm Hg, systolic BP 120 to 139 mm Hg or diastolic BP 80 to 89 mm Hg (120 to 129/≤80 mm Hg for participants with diabetes), and systolic BP ≥140 or diastolic BP ≥90 mm Hg (systolic BP ≥130 or diastolic BP ≥80 mm Hg for participants with diabetes). Among MESA participants aged ≥50 years at baseline, those with BP <120/<80 mm Hg on treatment had higher left ventricular mass index, prevalence of estimated glomerular filtration rate <60 mL/min per 1.73 m², prevalence of coronary calcium score >100, and twice the incident cardiovascular disease rate over 9.5 years of follow-up than those with BP <120/<80 mm Hg without treatment. In CARDIA at year 25, persons with BP <120/<80 mm Hg with treatment had much longer exposure to higher BP and higher risk of end-organ damage and subclinical atherosclerosis than those with BP <120/<80 mm Hg without treatment. An exploratory analysis suggested that when cumulative systolic BP was high (eg, >3000 mm Hg–years in 25 years), the increase in left ventricular mass index accelerated.

Conclusions

The data suggest that based on the current approach, antihypertensive treatment cannot restore cardiovascular disease risk to ideal levels. Emphasis should be placed on primordial prevention of BP increases to further reduce cardiovascular disease morbidity and mortality.