Popular Votes on Tobacco Tax Increases, 2012-2022

CONTEXT

Researchers have examined the campaign strategies, messaging, and outcomes of popular votes on tobacco tax increases from 1998 to 2008, but no study has investigated measures that have appeared since 2008.

METHODS

The author uses state newspaper archives, voter pamphlets, academic reports, advocacy websites, and personal interviews to obtain information about the 11 tobacco tax increase ballot measures that appeared from 2012 to 2022.

FINDINGS

The three measures that succeeded during 2012-2022 featured sufficient financial resources, collaboration with influential stakeholders, and early public support. Two of the three successful measures offered significant concessions to the tobacco industry, and both were designed as legislatively referred statutes. Elsewhere, proponents sought unsuccessfully to enact citizen-led initiatives that would allocate revenue to progressive policy priorities. In contrast to previous eras, tobacco industry arguments often centered around antitax and antigovernment rhetoric, which was viewed as especially compelling in conservative states. The industry's success rate was higher than in the past, and it continued to outspend its opponents, sometimes by staggering margins.

CONCLUSIONS

Campaign spending and early support remain critical to the success of tobacco tax ballot measures. Big Tobacco can extract significant concessions even in defeat, and direct democracy is an effective but imperfect ally to tobacco control advocates.

A Case of Intergenerational Conflict: The 2015 Finnish Citizens' Initiative on Pension Indexation

Pension reforms become more common in times of population aging. In 2015, a Finnish citizens' initiative recommended increasing pension benefits. Opponents argued this may be at the cost of youths and middle-agers. We investigate the initiative from the viewpoint of intergenerational conflict. A mixed methods analysis reveals no conflict during the signature collection. It only became visible during the newspaper debate, when experts explained the reform effects. The parliament rejected the reform. Findings reveal a unique conflict dynamic in citizens' initiatives: a reflected judgment gradually emerges during the public debate. Policymakers may use this insight to advance pension-related direct democracy.

Why Do some Labour Alliances Succeed in Politicizing Europe across Borders? A Comparison of the Right2Water and Fair Transport European Citizens' Initiatives

Under what conditions can organized labour successfully politicize the European integration process across borders? To answer this question, we compare the European Citizens' Initiatives (ECIs) of two European trade union federations: EPSU's successful Right2Water ECI and ETF's unsuccessful Fair Transport ECI. Our comparison reveals that actor-centred factors matter - namely, unions' ability to create broad coalitions. Successful transnational labour campaigns, however, also depend on structural conditions, namely, the prevailing mode of EU integration pressures faced by unions at a given time. Whereas the Right2Water ECI pre-emptively countered commodification attempts by the European Commission in water services, the Fair Transport ECI attempted to ensure fair working conditions after most of the transport sector had been liberalized. Vertical EU integration attempts that commodify public services are thus more likely to generate successful transnational counter-movements than the horizontal integration pressures on wages and working conditions that followed earlier successful EU liberalization drives.

Eye Movements Predict Large-Scale Voting Decisions

More than 100 countries allow people to vote directly on policies in direct democracy elections (e.g., 2016 Brexit referendum). Politicians are often responsible for writing ballot language, and voters frequently encounter ballot measures that are difficult to understand. We examined whether eye movements from a small group of individuals can predict the consequences of ballot language on large-scale voting decisions. Across two preregistered studies (Study 1: N = 120 registered voters, Study 2: N = 120 registered voters), we monitored laboratory participants' eye movements as they read real ballot measures. We found that eye-movement responses associated with difficulties in language comprehension predicted aggregate voting decisions to abstain from voting and vote against ballot measures in U.S. elections (total number of votes cast = 137,661,232). Eye movements predicted voting decisions beyond what was accounted for by widely used measures of language difficulty. This finding demonstrates a new way of linking eye movements to out-of-sample aggregate-level behaviors.

Direct democracy, policy diffusion, and medicalized marijuana

Virtually all studies of policy diffusion are based on statutory enactments by state legislatures. But a substantial number of medicalized marijuana laws were initiated through citizen initiatives and ratified by referenda (I&R). This case study suggests that the diffusion of laws adopted by I&R requires two modifications to the conventional model of policy diffusion. First, early policy adoptions must occur through direct democracy so that horizontal diffusion results when those past adoptions by the I&R process lead to future adoptions. Second, the necessity of bypassing institutions of representative government must be operationalized as an interaction between the availability of direct democracy and the precise political variable that blocks legislative enactments.

The politics of ageing and retirement: Evidence from Swiss referenda

Ageing threatens the financial sustainability of pay-as-you-go pension systems, since it increases the share of retirees to workers. An often-advocated policy response is to increase retirement age. Ironically, however, the political support for this policy may actually be hindered by population ageing. Using Swiss administrative voting data at municipal level from pension reform referenda (and individual survey data), we show in fact that individuals close to retirement tend to oppose policies that postpone retirement, whereas younger and older individuals are more favourable. The current process of population ageing and the associated increase in the size of the cohort of individuals close to retirement may partially explain why a pension reform that increased retirement age for women was approved in two referenda in 1995 and 1998, while a reform that proposed a similar increase in women's retirement age was defeated in a 2017 referendum.

Who Votes for Medicaid Expansion? Lessons from Maine's 2017 Referendum

CONTEXT

In November 2017, Maine became the first state in the nation to vote on a key provision of the Affordable Care Act: the expansion of Medicaid.

METHODS

This study merged official election results from localities across Maine with Census Bureau and American Hospital Association data to identify characteristics of areas that support Medicaid expansion.

FINDINGS

Places with more bachelor's degree holders more often vote in favor, whereas those with more associate's degree graduates tend to vote against. Conditional on education rates, areas with more uninsured individuals who would qualify for expanded coverage tend to vote in favor, while those with more high-income individuals tend to vote against. Also conditional on education rates, greater hospital employment is associated with support for expansion, but the presence of other health professionals, whose incomes might decrease from expansion, is associated with less support.

CONCLUSIONS

Voting patterns are mostly consistent with economic self-interest, except for the sizable association of bachelor's degree holders with support for Medicaid expansion. Direct democracy can shift Medicaid policy: extrapolating to other states, the model predicts that hypothetical referenda would pass in 5 of the 18 states that had not yet expanded Medicaid at the time of Maine's vote.