[Analysis of the Spatiotemporal Distribution of Algal Blooms and Its Driving Factors in Chaohu Lake Based on Multi-source Datasets]

Eutrophication and harmful algae blooms are one of the common ecological and environmental problems faced by freshwater lakes all over the world. As a typical inland freshwater lake, Chaohu Lake exhibits a high level of eutrophication and algae blooms year-round and shows a spatiotemporal difference in different regions of the lake. In order to understand the basic regularity of the development and outbreak of algal blooms in Chaohu Lake, the data from the comprehensive water observation platform and remote sensing were integrated to obtain the spatiotemporal distribution of algal blooms from 2015 to 2020. Then, an evaluation model based on Boosted Regression Trees (BRT) was constructed to quantitatively assess the importance and interactions of various environmental factors on algal blooms at different stages. The results indicated that:① The occurrence of algal blooms in Chaohu Lake exhibited significant seasonal variations, with the cyanobacteria beginning to recover in spring and bring about a light degree of algal blooms in the western and coastal areas of Chaohu Lake. The density of cyanobacteria reached its maximum in summer and autumn, accompanied by moderate and severe degrees of algal bloom outbreaks. ② During the non-outbreak period, the variation in the cyanobacteria density was greatly affected by physical and chemical factors, which explained 80.3% of the variance in the change in cyanobacteria density. The high concentrations of dissolved oxygen content in the water column and the weak alkalinity (7.2-7.6) and appropriate water temperature (about 3℃) provided a favorable environmental condition for the breeding and growth of cyanobacteria. In addition, the onset of algal blooms was closely related to the air temperature steadily passing through the threshold. According to the statistics, the date of first outbreak of algal blooms in Chaohu Lake was 11 days or so after the air temperature steadily remained above 7℃. ③ During the outbreak period, the occurrence of algal blooms was influenced by the combination of cyanobacterial biomass and meteorological conditions such as temperature, wind speed, and sunshine duration. The cumulative contribution ratio of the four factors was as high as 95%, and each factor had an optimal interval conductive to the outbreak of algal blooms. Furthermore, the results of multi-factor interaction analysis indicated a larger probability of the outbreak of algal blooms in Chaohu Lake under the combined effect of high cyanobacteria density, suitable temperature, and the breeze. This study analyzed and revealed the spatiotemporal characteristics and the dominant influencing factors of algal blooms in Chaohu Lake at different stages, which could provide the scientific basis for the prediction, early warning, and disposal of algal blooms under the context of climate change.