Arredondo A, Cuadra SM, Duarte MB. Challenges of the epidemiological and economic burdens associated with hypertension in middle income countries: evidence from Mexico.
BMC Public Health 2015;
15:1106. [PMID:
26546356 PMCID:
PMC4636741 DOI:
10.1186/s12889-015-2430-x]
[Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/11/2015] [Accepted: 10/16/2015] [Indexed: 11/28/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND
In order to identify the challenges resulting from hypertension in a middle income country, this study has developed probabilistic models to determine the epidemiological and economic burden of hypertension in Mexico.
METHODS
Considering a population base of 654,701 reported cases of adults with hypertension, we conducted a longitudinal analyses in order to identify the challenges of epidemiological changes and health care costs for hypertension in the Mexican health system. The cost-evaluation method used was based on the instrumentation technique. To estimate the epidemiological changes for 2015-2017, probabilistic models were constructed according to the Box-Jenkins technique.
RESULTS
Regarding changes in expected cases for 2015 vs. 2017, an increase of 12 % is expected (p < 0.001). Comparing the economic impact in 2015 versus 2017 (p < 0.001), there is a 23 % increase in financial requirements. The total amount for hypertension in 2016 (US dollars) will be $6306,685,320 Of these, $ 2990,109,035 will be as direct costs and $ 3316,576,285 as indirect costs.
CONCLUSIONS
If the risk factors and care models remain as they are currently in the health system, the financial consequences will have a major impact on the out-of-pocket users, following in order of importance, on social security providers and on public assistance providers.
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