Effects of Substitution of Higher-Alcohol Products with Lower-Alcohol Products on Population-Level Alcohol Purchases: ARIMA Analyses of Spanish Household Data

In its action plan (2022−2030) to reduce the harmful use of alcohol, the WHO calls on economic operators to “substitute, whenever possible, higher-alcohol products with no-alcohol and lower-alcohol products in their overall product portfolios, with the goal of decreasing the overall levels of alcohol consumption in populations and consumer groups”. This paper investigates substitution at the level of the consumer, based on Spanish household purchase data. ARIMA modelling of market research data of 1.29 million alcohol purchases from 18,954 Spanish households is used to study the potential impact of lower-strength alcohol products and the impact of beer prices in reducing household purchases of grams of alcohol between the 2nd quarter of 2017 and 1st quarter of 2022. Reducing the alcohol strength of existing higher-strength beers and wines had a much greater associated impact on reducing the purchases of all grams of alcohol than the relatively small increases in purchases of no-alcohol beers (ABV ≤ 1.0%) and zero-alcohol wines (ABV = 0.0%). For beers, the relative price per gram of alcohol decreased with the increasing ABV of the beer. Increasing the price per gram of alcohol in beers with an ABV > 3.5%, adjusted for the ABV of the beer, was associated with much greater increases in purchases of no-alcohol beers (ABV ≤ 1.0%) and much greater decreases in purchases of all grams of alcohol than decreases in the price of no-alcohol beers or increases in the price of beers with an ABV > 3.5% unadjusted for ABV. Thus, a key to reducing purchases of grams of alcohol, which also results in increased purchases of no-alcohol beers, is to increase the price of higher strength beers (ABV > 3.5%) with the price per gram of alcohol increasing as the ABV of the product increases.

The Impact of Lower-Strength Alcohol Products on Alcohol Purchases by Spanish Households

In its action plan (2022–2030) to reduce the harmful use of alcohol, the WHO calls on economic operators to “substitute, whenever possible, higher-alcohol products with no-alcohol and lower-alcohol products in their overall product portfolios, with the goal of decreasing the overall levels of alcohol consumption in populations and consumer groups”. In this paper, we investigate substitution at the level of the consumer based on Spanish household purchase data. ARIMA modelling of market research data of 1.29 million alcohol purchases from 18,954 Spanish households is used to study the potential impact of lower-strength alcohol products on reducing household purchases of grams of alcohol between the second quarter of 2017 and the first quarter of 2022. For households that recently bought either no-alcohol beer or wine (ABV ≤ 0.5%), the subsequent associated purchases of higher-strength beers and wines, respectively, and total grams of alcohol were reduced, the more so the higher the volume of initial purchases of beers and wines. The introduction of 20% ABV variants of same-branded 40% ABV whisky and gin during early 2021 was associated with reduced purchases of grams of alcohol within all spirits and of total grams of alcohol as a result of switching from other spirits products to the 20% variants, although not associated with reduced purchases of grams of alcohol within all variants of the studied same-branded whisky and gin; instead, an increase was observed in this category. With respect to Spanish household purchase data, the evidence behind the WHO’s call for substitution is substantiated. Further research across different jurisdictions is needed to provide ongoing monitoring of the impact of potential substitution on consumer behavior and public health, including unintended consequences, with findings from research informing future alcohol policies at all levels.

Choosing the best method to estimate the energy density of a population using food purchase data

BACKGROUND

Energy density (ED) is a measure of the energy content of a food component or diet relative to a standard unit of weight. Widespread variation in ED assessment methodologies exist. The present study aimed to explore the feasibility of calculating the ED of the Scottish diet using UK food purchase survey data and to identify the most appropriate method for calculating ED for use in the development of a Scottish Dietary Goal that captures any socioeconomic differences.

METHODS

Energy density was calculated using five different methods [food; food and milk; food, milk and energy containing (non-alcoholic) beverages; food, milk and all non-alcoholic beverages; and all food and beverages]. ED of the Scottish diet was estimated for each of the ED methods and data were examined by deprivation category.

RESULTS

Mean ED varied from 409 to 847 kJ 100 g(-1) depending on the method used. ED values calculated from food (847 kJ 100 g(-1) ) and food and milk (718 kJ 100 g(-1) ) were most comparable to other published data, with the latter being a more accurate reflection of all food consumed. For these two methods, there was a significant gradient between the most and least deprived quintiles (892-807 and 737-696 kJ 100 g(-1) for food and food and milk, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

Because the World Cancer Research Fund recommendations are based on ED from food and milk, it was considered prudent to use this method for policy purposes and for future monitoring work of the Scottish Diet to ensure consistency of reporting and comparability with other published studies.