Predicting cancer relapse following lung stereotactic radiotherapy: an external validation study using real-world evidence

Purpose

For patients receiving lung stereotactic ablative radiotherapy (SABR), evidence suggests that high peritumor density predicts an increased risk of microscopic disease (MDE) and local-regional failure, but only if there is low or heterogenous incidental dose surrounding the tumor (GTV). A data-mining method (Cox-per-radius) has been developed to investigate this dose-density interaction. We apply the method to predict local relapse (LR) and regional failure (RF) in patients with non-small cell lung cancer.

Methods

199 patients treated in a routine setting were collated from a single institution for training, and 76 patients from an external institution for validation. Three density metrics (mean, 90th percentile, standard deviation (SD)) were studied in 1mm annuli between 0.5cm inside and 2cm outside the GTV boundary. Dose SD and fraction of volume receiving less than 30Gy were studied in annuli 0.5-2cm outside the GTV to describe incidental MDE dosage. Heat-maps were created that correlate with changes in LR and RF rates due to the interaction between dose heterogeneity and density at each distance combination. Regions of significant improvement were studied in Cox proportional hazards models, and explored with and without re-fitting in external data. Correlations between the dose component of the interaction and common dose metrics were reported.

Results

Local relapse occurred at a rate of 6.5% in the training cohort, and 18% in the validation cohort, which included larger and more centrally located tumors. High peritumor density in combination with high dose variability (0.5 - 1.6cm) predicts LR. No interactions predicted RF. The LR interaction improved the predictive ability compared to using clinical variables alone (optimism-adjusted C-index; 0.82 vs 0.76). Re-fitting model coefficients in external data confirmed the importance of this interaction (C-index; 0.86 vs 0.76). Dose variability in the 0.5-1.6 cm annular region strongly correlates with heterogeneity inside the target volume (SD; ρ = 0.53 training, ρ = 0.65 validation).

Conclusion

In these real-world cohorts, the combination of relatively high peritumor density and high dose variability predicts increase in LR, but not RF, following lung SABR. This external validation justifies potential use of the model to increase low-dose CTV margins for high-risk patients.

Radial Data Mining to Identify Density-Dose Interactions That Predict Distant Failure Following SABR

Purpose

Lower dose outside the planned treatment area in lung stereotactic radiotherapy has been linked to increased risk of distant metastasis (DM) possibly due to underdosage of microscopic disease (MDE). Independently, tumour density on pretreatment computed tomography (CT) has been linked to risk of MDE. No studies have investigated the interaction between imaging biomarkers and incidental dose. The interaction would showcase whether the impact of dose on outcome is dependent on imaging and, hence, if imaging could inform which patients require dose escalation outside the gross tumour volume (GTV). We propose an image-based data mining methodology to investigate density-dose interactions radially from the GTV to predict DM with no a priori assumption on location.

Methods

Dose and density were quantified in 1-mm annuli around the GTV for 199 patients with early-stage lung cancer treated with 60 Gy in 5 fractions. Each annulus was summarised by three density and three dose parameters. For parameter combinations, Cox regressions were performed including a dose-density interaction in independent annuli. Heatmaps were created that described improvement in DM prediction due to the interaction. Regions of significant improvement were identified and studied in overall outcome models.

Results

Dose-density interactions were identified that significantly improved prediction for over 50% of bootstrap resamples. Dose and density parameters were not significant when the interaction was omitted. Tumour density variance and high peritumour density were associated with DM for patients with more cold spots (less than 30-Gy EQD2) and non-uniform dose about 3 cm outside of the GTV. Associations identified were independent of the mean GTV dose.

Conclusions

Patients with high tumour variance and peritumour density have increased risk of DM if there is a low and non-uniform dose outside the GTV. The dose regions are independent of tumour dose, suggesting that incidental dose may play an important role in controlling occult disease. Understanding such interactions is key to identifying patients who will benefit from dose-escalation. The methodology presented allowed spatial dose-density interactions to be studied at the exploratory stage for the first time. This could accelerate the clinical implementation of imaging biomarkers by demonstrating the impact of incidental dose for tumours of varying characteristics in routine data.