Frei C, Hillen T, Rhodes A. A stochastic model for cancer metastasis: branching stochastic process with settlement.
Math Med Biol 2020;
37:153-182. [PMID:
31162540 DOI:
10.1093/imammb/dqz009]
[Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/01/2018] [Revised: 01/29/2019] [Accepted: 04/10/2019] [Indexed: 11/13/2022]
Abstract
We introduce a new stochastic model for metastatic growth, which takes the form of a branching stochastic process with settlement. The moving particles are interpreted as clusters of cancer cells, while stationary particles correspond to micro-tumours and metastases. The analysis of expected particle location, their locational variance, the furthest particle distribution and the extinction probability leads to a common type of differential equation, namely, a non-local integro-differential equation with distributed delay. We prove global existence and uniqueness results for this type of equation. The solutions' asymptotic behaviour for long time is characterized by an explicit index, a metastatic reproduction number $R_0$: metastases spread for $R_{0}>1$ and become extinct for $R_{0}<1$. Using metastatic data from mouse experiments, we show the suitability of our framework to model metastatic cancer.
Collapse