1
|
Klock E, Wilson E, Fernandez RE, Piwowar-Manning E, Moore A, Kosloff B, Bwalya J, Bell-Mandla N, James A, Ayles H, Bock P, Donnell D, Fidler S, Hayes R, Eshleman SH, Laeyendecker O. Validation of population-level HIV-1 incidence estimation by cross-sectional incidence assays in the HPTN 071 (PopART) trial. J Int AIDS Soc 2021; 24:e25830. [PMID: 34897992 PMCID: PMC8666582 DOI: 10.1002/jia2.25830] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/19/2021] [Accepted: 09/10/2021] [Indexed: 11/10/2022] Open
Abstract
Introduction Cross‐sectional incidence testing is used to estimate population‐level HIV incidence and measure the impact of prevention interventions. There are limited data evaluating the accuracy of estimates in settings where antiretroviral therapy coverage and levels of viral suppression are high. Understanding cross‐sectional incidence estimates in these settings is important as viral suppression can lead to false recent test results. We compared the accuracy of multi‐assay algorithms (MAA) for incidence estimation to that observed in the community‐randomized HPTN 071 (PopART) trial, where the majority of participants with HIV infection were virally suppressed. Methods HIV incidence was assessed during the second year of the study, and included only individuals who were tested for HIV at visits 1 and 2 years after the start of the study (2016–2017). Incidence estimates from three MAAs were compared to the observed incidence between years 1 and 2 (MAA‐C: LAg‐Avidity <2.8 ODn + BioRad Avidity Index <95% + VL >400 copies/ml; LAg+VL MAA: LAg‐Avidity <1.5 ODn + VL >1000 copies/ml; Rapid+VL MAA: Asanté recent rapid result + VL >1000 copies/ml). The mean duration of recent infection (MDRI) used for the three MAAs was 248, 130 and 180 days, respectively. Results and discussion The study consisted of: 15,845 HIV‐negative individuals; 4406 HIV positive at both visits; and 221 who seroconverted between visits. Viral load (VL) data were available for all HIV‐positive participants at the 2‐year visit. Sixty four (29%) of the seroconverters and 3227 (72%) prevelant positive participants were virally supressed (<400 copies/ml). Observed HIV incidence was 1.34% (95% CI: 1.17–1.53). Estimates of incidence were similar to observed incidence for MAA‐C, 1.26% (95% CI: 1.02–1.51) and the LAg+VL MAA, 1.29 (95% CI: 0.97–1.62). Incidence estimated by the Rapid+VL MAA was significantly lower than observed incidence (0.92%, 95% CI: 0.69–1.15, p<0.01). Conclusions MAA‐C and the LAg+VL MAA provided accurate point estimates of incidence in this cohort with high levels of viral suppression. The Rapid+VL significantly underestimated incidence, suggesting that the MDRI recommended by the manufacturer is too long or the assay is not accurately detecting enough recent infections.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Ethan Klock
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, School of Medicine, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland, USA
| | - Ethan Wilson
- Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | - Reinaldo E Fernandez
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, School of Medicine, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland, USA
| | - Estelle Piwowar-Manning
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, School of Medicine, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland, USA
| | | | - Barry Kosloff
- Zambart, Lusaka, Zambia.,Clinical Research Department, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | | | - Nomtha Bell-Mandla
- Desmond Tutu Tuberculosis Center, Department of Pediatrics and Child Health, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, Stellenbosch University, Cape Town, South Africa
| | - Anelet James
- Desmond Tutu Tuberculosis Center, Department of Pediatrics and Child Health, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, Stellenbosch University, Cape Town, South Africa
| | - Helen Ayles
- Zambart, Lusaka, Zambia.,Clinical Research Department, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Peter Bock
- Desmond Tutu Tuberculosis Center, Department of Pediatrics and Child Health, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, Stellenbosch University, Cape Town, South Africa
| | - Deborah Donnell
- Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | | | - Richard Hayes
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Susan H Eshleman
- Department of Pathology, School of Medicine, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland, USA
| | - Oliver Laeyendecker
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, School of Medicine, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland, USA.,National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Medicine, Bethesda, Maryland, USA
| | -
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, School of Medicine, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland, USA
| |
Collapse
|