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Liu J, Zhang H, Feng D, Wang J, Wang M, Shen B, Cao Y, Zhang X, Lin Q, Zhang F, Zheng Y, Xiao Z, Zhu X, Zhang L, Wang J, Pang A, Han M, Feng S, Jiang E. Development of a Risk Prediction Model of Subsequent Bloodstream Infection After Carbapenem-Resistant Enterobacteriaceae Isolated from Perianal Swabs in Hematological Patients. Infect Drug Resist 2023; 16:1297-1312. [PMID: 36910516 PMCID: PMC9999719 DOI: 10.2147/idr.s400939] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/21/2022] [Accepted: 02/21/2023] [Indexed: 03/08/2023] Open
Abstract
Purpose Patients with hematological diseases are at high risk of carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae (CRE) infection, and CRE-related bloodstream infection (BSI) is associated with high mortality risk. Therefore, developing a predictive risk model for subsequent BSI in hematological patients with CRE isolated from perianal swabs could be used to guide preventive strategies. Methods This was a single-center retrospective cohort study at a tertiary blood diseases hospital, including all hematological patients hospitalized from 10 October 2017 to 31 July 2021. We developed a predictive model using multivariable logistic regression and internally validated it using enhanced bootstrap resampling. Results Of 421 included patients with CRE isolated from perianal swabs, BSI due to CRE occurred in 59. According to the multivariate logistic analysis, age (OR[odds ratio]=1.04, 95% CI[confidence interval]: 1.01-1.06, P=0.004), both meropenem and imipenem minimal inhibitory concentration (MIC) of the isolate from perianal swabs>8ug/mL (OR=5.34, 95% CI: 2.63-11.5, P<0.001), gastrointestinal symptoms (OR=3.67, 95% CI: 1.82-7.58, P<0.001), valley absolute neutrophil count (109/L)>0.025 (OR=0.07, 95% CI: (0.02-0.19, P<0.001) and shaking chills at peak temperature (OR=6.94, 95% CI: (2.60-19.2, P<0.001) were independently associated with CRE BSI within 30 days and included in the prediction model. At a cut-off of prediction probability ≥ 21.5% the model exhibited a sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value of 79.7%, 85.6%, 96.27% and 47.47%. The discrimination and calibration of the prediction model were good on the derivation data (C-statistics=0.8898; Brier score=0.079) and enhanced bootstrapped validation dataset (adjusted C-statistics=0.881; adjusted Brier score=0.083). The risk prediction model is freely available as a mobile application at https://liujia1992.shinyapps.io/dynnomapp/. Conclusion A prediction model based on age, meropenem and imipenem MIC of isolate, gastrointestinal symptoms, valley absolute neutrophil count and shaking chills may be used to better inform interventions in hematological patients with CRE isolated from perianal swabs.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jia Liu
- State Key Laboratory of Experimental Hematology, National Clinical Research Center for Blood Diseases, Haihe Laboratory of Cell Ecosystem, Institute of Hematology & Blood Diseases Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences & Peking Union Medical College, Tianjin, People's Republic of China
| | - Haixiao Zhang
- State Key Laboratory of Experimental Hematology, National Clinical Research Center for Blood Diseases, Haihe Laboratory of Cell Ecosystem, Institute of Hematology & Blood Diseases Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences & Peking Union Medical College, Tianjin, People's Republic of China
| | - Dan Feng
- State Key Laboratory of Experimental Hematology, National Clinical Research Center for Blood Diseases, Haihe Laboratory of Cell Ecosystem, Institute of Hematology & Blood Diseases Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences & Peking Union Medical College, Tianjin, People's Republic of China
| | - Jiali Wang
- State Key Laboratory of Experimental Hematology, National Clinical Research Center for Blood Diseases, Haihe Laboratory of Cell Ecosystem, Institute of Hematology & Blood Diseases Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences & Peking Union Medical College, Tianjin, People's Republic of China
| | - Mingyang Wang
- State Key Laboratory of Experimental Hematology, National Clinical Research Center for Blood Diseases, Haihe Laboratory of Cell Ecosystem, Institute of Hematology & Blood Diseases Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences & Peking Union Medical College, Tianjin, People's Republic of China
| | - Biao Shen
- State Key Laboratory of Experimental Hematology, National Clinical Research Center for Blood Diseases, Haihe Laboratory of Cell Ecosystem, Institute of Hematology & Blood Diseases Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences & Peking Union Medical College, Tianjin, People's Republic of China
| | - Yigeng Cao
- State Key Laboratory of Experimental Hematology, National Clinical Research Center for Blood Diseases, Haihe Laboratory of Cell Ecosystem, Institute of Hematology & Blood Diseases Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences & Peking Union Medical College, Tianjin, People's Republic of China
| | - Xiaoyu Zhang
- State Key Laboratory of Experimental Hematology, National Clinical Research Center for Blood Diseases, Haihe Laboratory of Cell Ecosystem, Institute of Hematology & Blood Diseases Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences & Peking Union Medical College, Tianjin, People's Republic of China
| | - Qingsong Lin
- State Key Laboratory of Experimental Hematology, National Clinical Research Center for Blood Diseases, Haihe Laboratory of Cell Ecosystem, Institute of Hematology & Blood Diseases Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences & Peking Union Medical College, Tianjin, People's Republic of China
| | - Fengkui Zhang
- State Key Laboratory of Experimental Hematology, National Clinical Research Center for Blood Diseases, Haihe Laboratory of Cell Ecosystem, Institute of Hematology & Blood Diseases Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences & Peking Union Medical College, Tianjin, People's Republic of China
| | - Yizhou Zheng
- State Key Laboratory of Experimental Hematology, National Clinical Research Center for Blood Diseases, Haihe Laboratory of Cell Ecosystem, Institute of Hematology & Blood Diseases Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences & Peking Union Medical College, Tianjin, People's Republic of China
| | - Zhijian Xiao
- State Key Laboratory of Experimental Hematology, National Clinical Research Center for Blood Diseases, Haihe Laboratory of Cell Ecosystem, Institute of Hematology & Blood Diseases Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences & Peking Union Medical College, Tianjin, People's Republic of China
| | - Xiaofan Zhu
- State Key Laboratory of Experimental Hematology, National Clinical Research Center for Blood Diseases, Haihe Laboratory of Cell Ecosystem, Institute of Hematology & Blood Diseases Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences & Peking Union Medical College, Tianjin, People's Republic of China
| | - Lei Zhang
- State Key Laboratory of Experimental Hematology, National Clinical Research Center for Blood Diseases, Haihe Laboratory of Cell Ecosystem, Institute of Hematology & Blood Diseases Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences & Peking Union Medical College, Tianjin, People's Republic of China
| | - Jianxiang Wang
- State Key Laboratory of Experimental Hematology, National Clinical Research Center for Blood Diseases, Haihe Laboratory of Cell Ecosystem, Institute of Hematology & Blood Diseases Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences & Peking Union Medical College, Tianjin, People's Republic of China
| | - Aiming Pang
- State Key Laboratory of Experimental Hematology, National Clinical Research Center for Blood Diseases, Haihe Laboratory of Cell Ecosystem, Institute of Hematology & Blood Diseases Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences & Peking Union Medical College, Tianjin, People's Republic of China
| | - Mingzhe Han
- State Key Laboratory of Experimental Hematology, National Clinical Research Center for Blood Diseases, Haihe Laboratory of Cell Ecosystem, Institute of Hematology & Blood Diseases Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences & Peking Union Medical College, Tianjin, People's Republic of China
| | - Sizhou Feng
- State Key Laboratory of Experimental Hematology, National Clinical Research Center for Blood Diseases, Haihe Laboratory of Cell Ecosystem, Institute of Hematology & Blood Diseases Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences & Peking Union Medical College, Tianjin, People's Republic of China
| | - Erlie Jiang
- State Key Laboratory of Experimental Hematology, National Clinical Research Center for Blood Diseases, Haihe Laboratory of Cell Ecosystem, Institute of Hematology & Blood Diseases Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences & Peking Union Medical College, Tianjin, People's Republic of China
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