Enhancing Radar Echo Extrapolation by ConvLSTM2D for Precipitation Nowcasting

Precipitation nowcasting in real-time is a challenging task that demands accurate and current data from multiple sources. Despite various approaches proposed by researchers to address this challenge, models such as the interaction-based dual attention LSTM (IDA-LSTM) face limitations, particularly in radar echo extrapolation. These limitations include higher computational costs and resource requirements. Moreover, the fixed kernel size across layers in these models restricts their ability to extract global features, focusing more on local representations. To address these issues, this study introduces an enhanced convolutional long short-term 2D (ConvLSTM2D) based architecture for precipitation nowcasting. The proposed approach includes time-distributed layers that enable parallel Conv2D operations on each image input, enabling effective analysis of spatial patterns. Following this, ConvLSTM2D is applied to capture spatiotemporal features, which improves the model's forecasting skills and computational efficacy. The performance evaluation employs a real-world weather dataset benchmarked against established techniques, with metrics including the Heidke skill score (HSS), critical success index (CSI), mean absolute error (MAE), and structural similarity index (SSIM). ConvLSTM2D demonstrates superior performance, achieving an HSS of 0.5493, a CSI of 0.5035, and an SSIM of 0.3847. Notably, a lower MAE of 11.16 further indicates the model's precision in predicting precipitation.

MLAM: Multi-Layer Attention Module for Radar Extrapolation Based on Spatiotemporal Sequence Neural Network

Precipitation nowcasting is mainly achieved by the radar echo extrapolation method. Due to the timing characteristics of radar echo extrapolation, convolutional recurrent neural networks (ConvRNNs) have been used to solve the task. Most ConvRNNs have been proven to perform far better than traditional optical flow methods, but they still have fatal problems. These models lack differentiation in the prediction of echoes of different intensities, which leads to the omission of responses from regions with high intensities. Moreover, because it is difficult for these models to capture long-term feature dependencies among multiple echo maps, the extrapolation effect declines sharply over time. This paper proposes an embedded multi-layer attention module (MLAM) to address the shortcomings of ConvRNNs. Specifically, an MLAM mainly enhances attention to critical regions in echo images and the processing of long-term spatiotemporal features through the interaction between input and memory features in the current moment. Comprehensive experiments were conducted on the radar dataset HKO-7 provided by the Hong Kong Observatory and the radar dataset HMB provided by the Hunan Meteorological Bureau. Experiments show that ConvRNNs embedded with MLAMs achieve more advanced results than standard ConvRNNs.

LSTMAtU-Net: A Precipitation Nowcasting Model Based on ECSA Module

Precipitation nowcasting refers to the use of specific meteorological elements to predict precipitation in the next 0-2 h. Existing methods use radar echo maps and the Z-R relationship to directly predict future rainfall rates through deep learning methods, which are not physically constrained, but suffer from severe loss of predicted image details. This paper proposes a new model framework to effectively solve this problem, namely LSTMAtU-Net. It is based on the U-Net architecture, equipped with a Convolutional LSTM (ConvLSTM) unit with the vertical flow direction and depthwise-separable convolution, and we propose a new component, the Efficient Channel and Space Attention (ECSA) module. The ConvLSTM unit with the vertical flow direction memorizes temporal changes by extracting features from different levels of the convolutional layers, while the ECSA module innovatively integrates different structural information of each layer of U-Net into the channelwise attention mechanism to learn channel and spatial information, thereby enhancing attention to the details of precipitation images. The experimental results showed that the performance of the model on the test dataset was better than other examined models and improved the accuracy of medium- and high-intensity precipitation nowcasting.