National trends in prescription drug expenditures and projections for 2021

Purpose

To report historical patterns of pharmaceutical expenditures, to identify factors that may influence future spending, and to predict growth in drug spending in 2021 in the United States, with a focus on the nonfederal hospital and clinic sectors.

Methods

Historical patterns were assessed by examining data on drug purchases from manufacturers using the IQVIA National Sales Perspectives database. Factors that may influence drug spending in hospitals and clinics in 2021 were reviewed—including new drug approvals, patent expirations, and potential new policies or legislation. Focused analyses were conducted for biosimilars, cancer drugs, generics, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic influence, and specialty drugs. For nonfederal hospitals, clinics, and overall (all sectors), estimates of growth of pharmaceutical expenditures in 2021 were based on a combination of quantitative analyses and expert opinion.

Results

In 2020, overall pharmaceutical expenditures in the United States grew 4.9% compared to 2019, for a total of $535.3 billion. Utilization (a 2.9% increase) and new drugs (a 1.8% increase) drove this increase, with price changes having minimal influence (a 0.3% increase). Adalimumab was the top drug in 2020, followed by apixaban and insulin glargine. Drug expenditures were $35.3 billion (a 4.6% decrease) and $98.4 billion (an 8.1% increase) in nonfederal hospitals and clinics, respectively. In clinics, growth was driven by new products and increased utilization, whereas in hospitals the decrease in expenditures was driven by reduced utilization. Several new drugs that will influence spending are expected to be approved in 2021. Specialty and cancer drugs will continue to drive expenditures along with the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Conclusion

For 2021, we expect overall prescription drug spending to rise by 4% to 6%, whereas in clinics and hospitals we anticipate increases of 7% to 9% and 3% to 5%, respectively, compared to 2020. These national estimates of future pharmaceutical expenditure growth may not be representative of any particular health system because of the myriad of local factors that influence actual spending.

National trends in prescription drug expenditures and projections for 2019

PURPOSE

Historical trends and factors likely to influence future pharmaceutical expenditures are discussed, and projections are made for drug spending in 2019 in nonfederal hospitals, clinics, and overall (all sectors).

METHODS

Drug expenditure data through calendar year 2018 were obtained from the IQVIA National Sales Perspectives database and analyzed. New drug approvals, patent expirations, and other factors that may influence drug spending in hospitals and clinics in 2019 were also reviewed. Expenditure projections for 2019 for nonfederal hospitals, clinics, and overall (all sectors) were made through a combination of quantitative analyses and expert opinion.

RESULTS

U.S. prescription sales in calendar year 2018 totaled $476.2 billion, a 5.5% increase from 2017 spending. The top 3 drugs by expenditures were adalimumab ($19.1 billion), insulin glargine ($9.3 billion), and etanercept ($8.0 billion). Prescription expenditures in nonfederal hospitals totaled $35.8 billion, a 4.8% increase from 2017. Expenditures in clinics in 2018 increased by 13.0% to $80.5 billion. The increase in spending in nonfederal hospitals was largely driven by new products and increased utilization of existing products. The list of the top 25 drugs by expenditures in nonfederal hospitals and clinics was dominated by specialty drugs.

CONCLUSION

We predict continued moderate growth of 4-6% in overall drug expenditures (across the entire U.S. market). We expect the clinic sector to continue to experience high (11-13%) growth in drug spending in 2019. Finally, for nonfederal hospitals we anticipate growth in the range of 3-5%. These estimates are at the national level. Health-system pharmacy leaders should carefully examine local drug utilization patterns to determine their own organization's anticipated spending in 2019.

National trends in prescription drug expenditures and projections for 2018

PURPOSE

Historical trends and factors likely to influence future pharmaceutical expenditures are discussed, and projections are made for drug spending in 2018 in nonfederal hospitals, clinics, and overall (all sectors).

METHODS

Drug expenditure data through calendar year 2017 were obtained from the IQVIA (formerly QuintilesIMS) National Sales Perspectives database and analyzed. New drug approvals, patent expirations, and other factors that may influence drug spending in hospitals and clinics in 2018 were also reviewed. Expenditure projections for 2018 for nonfederal hospitals, clinics, and overall (all sectors) were made based on a combination of quantitative analyses and expert opinion.

RESULTS

Total U.S. prescription sales in the 2017 calendar year were $455.9 billion, a 1.7% increase compared with 2016. The top drug based on expenditures was adalimumab ($17.1 billion), followed by insulin glargine and etanercept. Prescription expenditures in nonfederal hospitals totaled $34.2 billion, a 0.7% decrease in 2017 compared with 2016. Expenditures in clinics increased 10.9%, to a total of $70.8 billion. The decrease in spending in nonfederal hospitals was driven by lower utilization. The top 25 drugs by expenditures in nonfederal hospitals and clinics were dominated by specialty drugs.

CONCLUSION

We project a 3.0-5.0% increase in total drug expenditures across all settings, a 11.0-13.0% increase in clinics, and a 0.0-2.0% increase in hospital drug spending in 2018. Health-system pharmacy leaders should carefully examine their own local drug utilization patterns to determine their own organization's anticipated spending in 2018.

National trends in prescription drug expenditures and projections for 2017

PURPOSE

Historical trends and factors likely to influence future pharmaceutical expenditures are discussed, and projections are made for drug spending in 2017 in nonfederal hospitals, clinics, and overall (all sectors).

METHODS

Drug expenditure data through calendar year 2016 were obtained from the QuintilesIMS National Sales Perspectives database and analyzed. Other factors that may influence drug spending in hospitals and clinics in 2017, including new drug approvals and patent expirations, were also reviewed. Expenditure projections for 2017 for nonfederal hospitals, clinics, and overall (all sectors) were made based on a combination of quantitative analyses and expert opinion.

RESULTS

Total U.S. prescription sales in the 2016 calendar year were $448.2 billion, a 5.8% increase compared with 2015. More than half of the increase resulted from price hikes of existing drugs. Adalimumab was the top drug overall in 2016 expenditures ($13.6 billion); in clinics and nonfederal hospitals, infliximab was the top drug. Prescription expenditures in clinics and nonfederal hospitals totaled $63.7 billion (an 11.9% increase from 2015) and $34.5 billion (a 3.3% increase from 2015), respectively. In nonfederal hospitals and clinics, growth in spending was driven primarily by price increases of existing drugs and increased volume, respectively.

CONCLUSION

We project a 6.0-8.0% increase in total drug expenditures across all settings, an 11.0-13.0% increase in clinics, and a 3.0-5.0% increase in hospital drug spending in 2017. Health-system pharmacy leaders should carefully examine their own local drug utilization patterns to determine their own organization's anticipated spending in 2017.