Advancement in Understanding Diabetic Retinopathy: A Comprehensive Review

Diabetic retinopathy (DR) is a significant global health concern, with its prevalence and severity increasing alongside the rising incidence of diabetes. DR is a leading cause of vision impairment among working-age adults, resulting in substantial economic and healthcare burdens. This article explores the epidemiology and pathophysiology of DR, highlighting the global variation in its prevalence and the associated systemic risk factors. It delves into the complex relationship between glycemic control, duration of diabetes, and medication use in the context of DR development and progression. The review also discusses current screening methods and their implications, emphasizing the need for efficient and scalable approaches. Furthermore, it investigates the various treatment strategies available for DR, including laser photocoagulation, vitreous body excision, and anti-vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) therapy, while underlining their limitations and potential side effects. In conclusion, this article underscores the urgency of developing novel preventive and therapeutic approaches for DR. It highlights the potential role of cytokines and growth factors as treatment targets and emphasizes the importance of glycemic control and management of systemic risk factors in mitigating the impact of this vision-threatening complication of diabetes. The article serves as a comprehensive resource for understanding the challenges posed by DR and the need for innovative strategies to address this growing public health concern.

Optimizing strategies to identify high risk of developing type 2 diabetes

Introduction

The success of diabetes prevention based on early treatment depends on high-quality screening. This study compared the diagnostic properties of currently recommended screening strategies against alternative score-based rules to identify those at high risk of developing diabetes.

Methods

The study used data from ELSA-Brasil, a contemporary cohort followed up for a mean (standard deviation) of 7.4 (0.54) years, to develop risk functions with logistic regression to predict incident diabetes based on socioeconomic, lifestyle, clinical, and laboratory variables. We compared the predictive capacity of these functions against traditional pre-diabetes cutoffs of fasting plasma glucose (FPG), 2-h plasma glucose (2hPG), and glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) alone or combined with recommended screening questionnaires.

Results

Presenting FPG > 100 mg/dl predicted 76.6% of future cases of diabetes in the cohort at the cost of labeling 40.6% of the sample as high risk. If FPG testing was performed only in those with a positive American Diabetes Association (ADA) questionnaire, labeling was reduced to 12.2%, but only 33% of future cases were identified. Scores using continuously expressed clinical and laboratory variables produced a better balance between detecting more cases and labeling fewer false positives. They consistently outperformed strategies based on categorical cutoffs. For example, a score composed of both clinical and laboratory data, calibrated to detect a risk of future diabetes ≥20%, predicted 54% of future diabetes cases, labeled only 15.3% as high risk, and, compared to the FPG ≥ 100 mg/dl strategy, nearly doubled the probability of future diabetes among screen positives.

Discussion

Currently recommended screening strategies are inferior to alternatives based on continuous clinical and laboratory variables.

Urinary Lithiasis Risk Assessment after Bariatric Surgery

Malabsorption is a consequence of gastric bypass (GB). GB increases the risk of kidney stone formation. This study aimed to evaluate the accuracy of a screening questionnaire for assessing the risk of lithiasis in this population. We performed a monocentric retrospective study to evaluate a screening questionnaire administered to patients who underwent gastric bypass surgery between 2014 and 2015. Patients were asked to answer a questionnaire that included 22 questions divided into four parts: medical history, episodes of renal colic before and after bypass surgery, and eating habits. A total of 143 patients were included in the study, and the mean age of the patients was 49.1 ± 10.8 years. The time between gastric bypass surgery and the completion of the questionnaire was 50.75 ± 4.95 months. The prevalence of kidney stones in the study population was 19.6%. We found that with a score of ≥6, the sensitivity and specificity were 92.9% and 76.5%, respectively. Positive and negative predictive values were 49.1% and 97.8%, respectively. The ROC curve showed an Area Under the Curve (AUC) of 0.932 ± 0.029 (p < 0.001). We developed a reliable and short questionnaire to identify patients at a high risk of kidney stones after gastric bypass. When the results of the questionnaire were equal to or greater than six, the patient was at a high risk of kidney stone formation. With a good predictive negative value, it could be used in daily practice to screen patients who have undergone gastric bypass and are at a high risk of renal lithiasis.

Cost-effectiveness of targeted screening for non-valvular atrial fibrillation in the United Kingdom in older patients using digital approaches

AIM

Screening for non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) is key in identifying patients with undiagnosed disease who may be eligible for anticoagulation therapy. Understanding the economic value of screening is necessary to assess optimal strategies for payers and healthcare systems. We evaluated the cost effectiveness of opportunistic screening with handheld digital devices and pulse palpation, as well as targeted screening predictive algorithms for UK patients ≥75 years of age.

METHODS

A previously developed Markov cohort model was adapted to evaluate clinical and economic outcomes of opportunistic screening including pulse palpation, Zenicor (extended 14 days), KardiaMobile (extended), and two algorithms compared to no screening. Key model inputs including epidemiology estimates, screening effectiveness, and risks for medical events were derived from the STROKESTOP, ARISTOTLE studies, and published literature, and cost inputs were obtained from a UK national cost database. Health and cost outcomes, annually discounted at 3.5%, were reported for a cohort of 10,000 patients vs. no screening over a time horizon equivalent to a patient's lifetime, Analyses were performed from a UK National Health Services and personal social services perspective.

RESULTS

Zenicor, pulse palpation, and KardiaMobile were dominant (providing better health outcomes at lower costs) vs. no screening; both algorithms were cost-effective vs. no screening, with incremental cost-effectiveness ratios per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) of £1,040 and £1,166. Zenicor, pulse palpation, and KardiaMobile remained dominant options vs. no screening in all scenarios explored. Deterministic sensitivity analyses indicated long-term stroke care costs, prevalence of undiagnosed NVAF in patients 75-79 years of age, and clinical efficacy of anticoagulant on stroke prevention were the main drivers of the cost-effectiveness results.

CONCLUSIONS

Screening for NVAF at ≥75 years of age could result in fewer NVAF-related strokes. NVAF screening is cost-effective and may be cost-saving depending on the program chosen.

The effect of surveillance for differentiated thyroid carcinoma in childhood cancer survivors on survival rates: a decision-tree-based analysis

Background

Childhood cancer survivors (CCS) who received radiation therapy exposing the thyroid gland are at increased risk of developing differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC). Therefore, the International Guideline Harmonization Group (IGHG) on late effects of childhood cancer therefore recommends surveillance. It is unclear whether surveillance reduces mortality.

Aim

The aim of this study was to compare four strategies for DTC surveillance in CCS with the aim of reducing mortality: Strategy-1, no surveillance; Strategy-2, ultrasound alone; Strategy-3, ultrasound followed by fine-needle biopsy (FNB); Strategy-4, palpation followed by ultrasound and FNB.

Materials and methods

A decision tree was formulated with 10-year thyroid cancer-specific survival as the endpoint, based on data extracted from literature.

Results

It was calculated that 12.6% of CCS will develop DTC. Using Strategy-1, all CCS with DTC would erroneously not be operated upon, but no CCS would have unnecessary surgery. With Strategy-2, all CCS with and 55.6% of CCS without DTC would be operated. Using Strategy-3, 11.1% of CCS with DTC would be correctly operated upon, 11.2% without DTC would be operated upon and 1.5% with DTC would not be operated upon. With Strategy-4, these percentages would be 6.8, 3.9 and 5.8%, respectively. Median 10-year survival rates would be equal across strategies (0.997).

Conclusion

Different surveillance strategies for DTC in CCS all result in the same high DTC survival. Therefore, the indication for surveillance may lie in a reduction of surgery-related morbidity rather than DTC-related mortality. In accordance with the IGHG guidelines, the precise strategy should be decided upon in a process of shared decision-making.

[Strategies for screening protective viral antigens and their applications in the development of novel vaccines]

With the development of vaccine research and development technologies, novel vaccines have been widely used in the prevention of various infectious diseases. Due to the excellent safety, novel vaccines have unique advantages in the application of vaccines against virulent pathogens. The major premise of developing novel vaccines is to screen protective antigens. With the development of various omics research, cutting-edge bioinformatics tools for eukaryotes have been well developed, while the much simpler structure of viruses compared with eukaryotic cells corresponds to relatively simple research methods. Strategies for screening protective antigens need to combine the advantages of both bioinformatics methods and traditional molecular biology methods. In this review, the strategies for screening virus protective antigens were discussed from the perspective of host and virus, and a series of bioinformatics tools developed based on eukaryotic cells that may be used for screening protective antigens were listed. This review also summarized the cases of using protective antigens to design novel vaccines, in order to better understand the strategies for screening virus protective antigens and facilitate the research and development of novel vaccines.

Recent advances of integrated microfluidic suspension cell culture system

Microfluidic devices with superior microscale fluid manipulation ability and large integration flexibility offer great advantages of high throughput, parallelisation and multifunctional automation. Such features have been extensively utilised to facilitate cell culture processes such as cell capturing and culturing under controllable and monitored conditions for cell-based assays. Incorporating functional components and microfabricated configurations offered different levels of fluid control and cell manipulation strategies to meet diverse culture demands. This review will discuss the advances of single-phase flow and droplet-based integrated microfluidic suspension cell culture systems and their applications for accelerated bioprocess development, high-throughput cell selection, drug screening and scientific research to insight cell biology. Challenges and future prospects for this dynamically developing field are also highlighted.

New clinical screening strategy to distinguish HNF1A variant-induced diabetes from young early-onset type 2 diabetes in a Chinese population

OBJECTIVE

Maturity-onset diabetes of the young caused by hepatocyte nuclear factor-1 alpha (HNF1A) variants (HNF1A-MODY) is a common form of monogenetic diabetes. Although patients with HNF1A-MODY might specifically benefit from sulfonylurea treatment, available methods for screening this specific type of diabetes are not cost-effective. This study was designed to establish an optimized clinical strategy based on multiple biomarkers to distinguish patients with HNF1A-MODY from clinically diagnosed early-onset type 2 diabetes (EOD) for genetic testing in a Chinese population.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

A case-control study including 125 non-related young patients with EOD and 15 probands with HNF1A-MODY (cohort 1) was conducted to evaluate reported biomarkers for HNF1A-MODY. A cut-off for the fasting insulin (Fins) level, the 97.5 percentile of 150 healthy subjects with normal components of metabolic syndrome (cohort 2), was used to filter out individuals with obvious insulin resistance (Fins <102 pmol/L). An optimized clinical screening strategy (HNF1A-CSS) was established, and its effectiveness was assessed in another group of 410 young patients with EOD (cohort 3).

RESULTS

In cohort 1, body mass index (BMI), serum high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-c) and high-sensitivity C reactive protein (hs-CRP) levels were confirmed to be useful for the differential diagnosis of HNF1A-MODY. In cohort 3, eight probands with HNF1A-MODY were identified. In cohort 3 and young relatives with HNF1A-MODY, meeting three of four criteria (BMI <28 kg/m², hs-CRP <0.75 mg/L, Fins <102 pmol/L and HDL-c >1.12 mmol/L), the sensitivity and specificity of HNF1A-CSS were 100% and 69.3%, respectively. In the pooled analysis of all young patients, HNF1A-CSS displayed 90.5% sensitivity and 73.6% specificity for identifying patients with HNF1A-MODY among those with clinically diagnosed EOD.

CONCLUSION

Our HNF1A-CSS is useful for distinguishing patients with HNF1A-MODY from patients with EOD in a young Chinese population.

Screening for non-alcoholic fatty liver disease in type 2 diabetes using non-invasive scores and association with diabetic complications

OBJECTIVE

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is prevalent in patients with type 2 diabetes. Here, we estimate the proportion of patients with type 2 diabetes that should be referred to hepatologists according to the European Association for the Study of the Liver (EASL)-European Association for the Study of Diabetes (EASD)-European Association for the Study of Obesity (EASO) Guidelines and evaluate the association between non-invasive biomarkers of steatosis and fibrosis and diabetic complications.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

This is a retrospective analysis of type 2 diabetes patients who attended on a regular basis our diabetes clinic between 2013 and 2018 (n=2770). Steatosis was assessed using Fatty Liver Index (FLI), Hepatic Steatosis Index and NAFLD Ridge Score and fibrosis using NAFLD Fibrosis Score (NFS), Fibrosis-4 (FIB-4), aspartate aminotransferase (AST) to platelet ratio index (APRI) and AST/alanine aminotransferase (ALT) ratio. Outcome measures were altered albumin excretion rate (AER), chronic kidney disease (CKD) and cardiovascular disease (CVD).

RESULTS

The prevalence of advanced fibrosis varied from 1% (APRI) to 33% (NFS). The application of the guidelines using a sequential combination of FLI and FIB-4 would lead to referral of 28.3% of patients when using standard FIB-4 cut-offs, while this number dropped to 13.4% when age-adjusted FIB-4 thresholds were applied. A higher prevalence of altered AER was associated with liver steatosis (FLI: OR: 3.49; 95% CI 2.05 to 5.94, p<0.01), whereas liver fibrosis was associated with CKD (FIB-4: OR: 6.39; 95% CI 4.05 to 10.08, p<0.01) and CVD (FIB-4: OR: 2.62; 95% CI 1.69 to 4.04, p<0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

While specific fibrosis scores identify different proportion of patients with advanced fibrosis, the use of age-adjusted FIB-4 cut-offs leads to a drop in gray-zone results, making referrals to hepatologists more sustainable. Interestingly non-invasive biomarkers were consistently associated with a different pattern of diabetic complications.

Barriers to Early Diagnosis and Treatment of Familial Hypercholesterolemia: Current Perspectives on Improving Patient Care

Familial hypercholesterolemia (FH) is a frequent disorder associated with premature atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease. Different clinical diagnosis criteria are available, and cost of genetic testing has been reduced in the last years; however, most cases are not diagnosed worldwide. Patients with FH are at high cardiovascular risk and the risk can be reduced with lifelong lifestyle and pharmacological treatment. Statins and ezetimibe are available as generic drugs in most countries reducing the cost of treatment. However, the use of high-intensity statins combined with ezetimibe and PCSK9 inhibitors, if necessary, is low for different reasons that contribute to a high number of patients not reaching LDL-C targets according to guidelines. On the other hand, cardiovascular risk varies greatly in families with FH; therefore, risk stratification strategies including cardiovascular imaging is another element to consider for improving care and management of FH. There are numerous barriers depending on the awareness, knowledge, perception of risk, management and care of patients living with FH that impact in the diagnosis and treatment of the disorder. In this contemporary review, we analyze different barriers in the diagnosis and care of patients to improve patients’ care and prevention of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease and describe recent advances and strategies to improve the gaps in the care of FH, including global collaboration and advocacy.

Newborn pulse oximetry screening in the context of a high antenatal detection rate of critical congenital heart disease

AIM

Assess the potential additional benefit from pulse oximetry screening in the early detection of critical congenital heart disease in a country with a well-developed antenatal ultrasound screening programme.

METHODS

Live-born infants, pregnancy terminations and stillbirths from 20 weeks' gestational age, between 2013 and 2015, with critical cardiac defects defined as primary or secondary targets of pulse oximetry screening were identified. Critical defects were those resulting in the death of a fetus or an infant in the first 28 days after birth, or a defect requiring intervention in the first 28 days.

RESULTS

Two hundred and sixty-eight infants and Fetuses were identified. Antenatal detection rates improved from 69% to 77% over the study period. An associated co-morbidity improved antenatal detection rates. Twenty-seven live-born infants were diagnosed after discharge: 15 aortic arch obstruction (AAO); 10 d-loop transposition of the great arteries (d-TGA), and two total anomalous pulmonary venous drainage (TAPVD). Of these, five with AAO, nine with d-TGA and likely both with TAPVD could potentially have been detected with oximetry screening.

CONCLUSION

The antenatal detection of critical cardiac anomalies continues to improve in New Zealand. Despite high antenatal detection rates for most lesions, universal postnatal oximetry screening has the potential to improve early detection.

Evaluation of guidelines on the screening and diagnosis of gestational diabetes mellitus: systematic review

OBJECTIVE

Guidelines for screening and diagnosis of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) have been updated in the past several years, and various inconsistencies exist across these guidelines. Moreover, the quality of these updated guidelines has not been clarified. We thus conducted this systematic review to evaluate the relationship between the quality and detailed recommendations of these guidelines.

DATA SOURCES

The Guidelines International Network Library, the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) database, the Medline database, the Embase and the National Guidelines Clearinghouse were searched for guidelines containing recommendations on screening and diagnosis strategies for GDM between 2009 and November 2018.

METHODS

Guidelines included a target group of women with GDM, and contained recommendations for screening and diagnostic strategies for GDM were included in the present systematic review. Reviewers summarised recommendations on screening and diagnosis strategies from each guideline and rated the quality of guidelines by using the Appraisal of Guidelines Research and Evaluation (AGREE) criteria.

RESULTS

A total of 459 citations were collected by the preliminary literature selection, and 16 guidelines that met the inclusion criteria were assessed. The inconsistencies of the guidelines mainly focus on the screening process (one step vs two step) and criteria of oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) (International Association of Diabetes and Pregnancy Study Groups [IADPSG] vs CarpenterandCoustan). Guidelines with higher AGREE scores usually recommend a one-step OGTT strategy with IADPSG criteria between 24 and 28 gestational weeks, and the majority of these guidelines likely to select evidence by Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation criteria.

CONCLUSIONS

The guidelines of WHO-2013, NICE-2015, American Diabetes Association-2018, Endocrine Society-2013, Society of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists of Canada-2016, International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics-2015, American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists-2018, United States Preventive Services Task Force-2014 and IADPSG-2015 are strongly recommended in the present evaluation, according to the AGREE II criteria. Guidelines with higher quality tend to recommend a one-step 75 g OGTT strategy with IADPSG criteria between 24 and 28 gestational weeks.

Comparison of Birth Outcomes by Gestational Diabetes Screening Criteria

Objectives  This study is to examine the association between different diagnostic criteria for gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) and adverse birth outcomes. Study Design  A retrospective cohort study of 5,937 women with a singleton pregnancy was conducted, who completed GDM screening between 24 to 32 weeks gestational age. Four nonoverlapping groups of women defined as: 1) Normal: glucose challenge test (GCT) <130 mg/dL, 2) elevated GCT + normal oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT): abnormal 1 hour GCT + normal 3 hour OGTT, 3) GDM/International Association of Diabetes in Pregnancy Study Group (IADPSG): abnormal 3 hour OGTT by the IADPSG criteria, and 4) GDM/Carpenter-Coustan (CC): diagnosis per CC criteria. We used logistic regression to examine the association between GDM group classification and main outcome of macrosomia and secondary birth outcomes. Results  Prevalences were GDM/CC 4.6%, GDM/IADPSG 3.0, and 7.6% overall. GDM/IADPSG group was associated with increased macrosomia (adj OR [odd ratio] 1.87; 95% CI [confidence interval]: 1.08-3.25; p  = 0.02), while GDM/CC group was associated with increased preterm birth (adj OR 1.75; 95% CI: 1.05-2.80; p  = 0.03). Conclusion  Little difference in birth outcomes was found between the two criteria, GDM/CC and GDM/IADPSG. Randomized controlled trials are needed to clarify the risks and benefits of these screening paradigms before their incorporation into clinical practice.

Standardized screening for periodontitis as an integral part of multidisciplinary management of adults with type 2 diabetes: an observational cross-sectional study of cohorts in the USA and UK

OBJECTIVE

To determine prevalence and factors predictive of periodontitis by using a standardized assessment model in adults with type 2 diabetes.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

We performed an observational cross-sectional study to determine the burden of periodontitis in adults with type 2 diabetes attending urban, ambulatory referral centers in the USA and UK. Full-mouth probing was performed and periodontitis was diagnosed based on either a low (≥5 mm at ≥1 site) or high pocket probing-depth threshold (≥6 mm at ≥1 site). Results were stratified into a five-stage schema and integrated with other clinical variables into the novel Diabetes Cross-Disciplinary Index to function as a balanced health scorecard. Corresponding demographic and routinely collected health data were obtained and comparisons were made between patients with and without periodontitis. Multivariable logistic regression was performed to identify factors predictive of the presence or absence of periodontitis.

RESULTS

Between our two cohorts, 253 patients were screened. Caucasians comprised >90% and Hispanic Americans >75% of the UK and US cohorts, respectively. Males and females were equally distributed; mean age was 53.6±11 years; and 17 (6.7%) were edentulous. Of the 236 dentate patients, 128 (54.2%) had periodontitis by low threshold and 57 (24.2%) by high threshold. Just 17 (7.2%) were periodontally healthy. No significant differences in age, HbA1c, blood pressure, body mass index, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, or smoking status (all p>0.05) were identified between those with or without periodontitis (regardless of threshold) and none was found to be a significant predictor of disease.

CONCLUSIONS

Periodontitis is frequent in adults with type 2 diabetes and all should be screened. Periodontal health status can be visualized with other comorbidities and complications using a novel balanced scorecard that could facilitate patient-clinician communication, shared decision-making, and prioritization of individual healthcare needs.

Assessment of five screening strategies for optimal detection of carriers of third-generation cephalosporin-resistant Enterobacteriaceae in intensive care units using daily sampling

There is no consensus on optimal screening procedures for multidrug-resistant Enterobacteriaceae (MDRE) in intensive care units (ICUs). Therefore, we assessed five strategies for the detection of extended-spectrum beta-lactamase (ESBL) and high-level expressed AmpC cephalosporinase (HL-CASE) producers. During a 3-month period, a rectal screening swab sample was collected daily from every ICU patient, from the first 24 h to the last day of ICU stay. Samples were plated on MDRE-selective media. Bacteria were identified using MALDI-TOF mass spectrometry and antibiograms were performed using disk diffusion. MDREs were isolated from 682/2348 (29.0%) screening samples collected from 93/269 (34.6%) patients. Incidences of patients with ESBL and HL-CASE producers were 17.8 and 19.3 per 100 admissions, respectively. In 48/93 patients, MDRE carriage was intermittent. Compared with systematic screening at admission, systematic screening at discharge did not significantly increase the rate of MDRE detection among the 93 patients (62% vs. 70%). In contrast, screening at admission and discharge, screening at admission and weekly thereafter, and screening at admission and weekly thereafter and at discharge significantly increased MDRE detection (77%, p 0.02; 76%, p 0.01; 86%, p<0.001, respectively). The difference in MDRE detection between these strategies relies essentially on the levels of detection of patients with HL-CASE producers. The most reasonable strategy would be to collect two samples, one at admission and one at discharge, which would detect 87.5% of the ESBL strains, 67.3% of the HL-CASE strains and 77.4% of all MDRE strains. This study should facilitate decision-making concerning the most suitable screening policy for MDRE detection in a given ICU setting.

Optimizing Canadian breast cancer screening strategies: a perspective for action

While controversies regarding optimal breast cancer screening modalities, screening start and end ages, and screening frequencies continue to exist, additional population-based randomized trials are unlikely to be initiated to examine these concerns. Simulation models have been used to evaluate the efficacy and effectiveness of various breast cancer screening strategies, however these models were all developed using US data. Currently, there is a need to examine the optimal screening and treatment policies in the Canadian context. In this commentary, we discuss the current controversies pertaining to breast cancer screening, and describe the fundamental components of a simulation model, which can be used to inform breast cancer screening and treatment policies.

Optimizing Canadian breast cancer screening strategies: a perspective for action

While controversies regarding optimal breast cancer screening modalities, screening start and end ages, and screening frequencies continue to exist, additional population-based randomized trials are unlikely to be initiated to examine these concerns. Simulation models have been used to evaluate the efficacy and effectiveness of various breast cancer screening strategies, however these models were all developed using US data. Currently, there is a need to examine the optimal screening and treatment policies in the Canadian context. In this commentary, we discuss the current controversies pertaining to breast cancer screening, and describe the fundamental components of a simulation model, which can be used to inform breast cancer screening and treatment policies.

A framework for quantifying net benefits of alternative prognostic models

New prognostic models are traditionally evaluated using measures of discrimination and risk reclassification, but these do not take full account of the clinical and health economic context. We propose a framework for comparing prognostic models by quantifying the public health impact (net benefit) of the treatment decisions they support, assuming a set of predetermined clinical treatment guidelines. The change in net benefit is more clinically interpretable than changes in traditional measures and can be used in full health economic evaluations of prognostic models used for screening and allocating risk reduction interventions. We extend previous work in this area by quantifying net benefits in life years, thus linking prognostic performance to health economic measures; by taking full account of the occurrence of events over time; and by considering estimation and cross-validation in a multiple-study setting. The method is illustrated in the context of cardiovascular disease risk prediction using an individual participant data meta-analysis. We estimate the number of cardiovascular-disease-free life years gained when statin treatment is allocated based on a risk prediction model with five established risk factors instead of a model with just age, gender and region. We explore methodological issues associated with the multistudy design and show that cost-effectiveness comparisons based on the proposed methodology are robust against a range of modelling assumptions, including adjusting for competing risks.