1
|
He H, Wu Y, Jia Z, Xu H, Pan Y, Cao D, Zhang Y, Tao X, Zhao T, Lv H, Yi J, Wang Y, Gao Y, Kou C, Niu J, Jiang J. Risk-stratified approach by aMAP score for community population infected with hepatitis B and C to guide subsequent liver cancer screening practice: A cohort study with 10-year follow-up. J Viral Hepat 2023; 30:859-869. [PMID: 37723945 DOI: 10.1111/jvh.13884] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/14/2023] [Revised: 07/12/2023] [Accepted: 08/14/2023] [Indexed: 09/20/2023]
Abstract
The aim of this study was to determine whether the age-Male-ALBI-Platelet (aMAP) score is applicable in community settings and how to maximise its role in risk stratification. A total of thousand five hundred and three participants had an aMAP score calculated at baseline and were followed up for about 10 years to obtain information on liver cancer incidence and death. After assessing the ability of aMAP to predict liver cancer incidence and death in terms of differentiation and calibration, the optimal risk stratification threshold of the aMAP score was explored, based on absolute and relative risks. The aMAP score achieved higher area under curves (AUCs) (almost all above 0.8) within 10 years and exhibited a better calibration within 5 years. Regarding absolute risk, the risk of incidence of and death from liver cancer showed a rapid increase after an aMAP score of 55. The cumulative incidence (5-year: 8.3% vs. 1.3% and 10-year: 20.9% vs. 3.6%) and mortality (5-year: 6.7% vs. 1.1% and 10-year: 17.5% vs. 3.1%) of liver cancer in individuals with an aMAP score of ≥55 were significantly higher than in those with a score of <55 (Grey's test p < .001). In terms of relative risk, the risk of death from liver cancer surpassed that from other causes after an aMAP score of ≥55 [HR = 1.38(1.02-1.87)]. Notably, the two types of death risk had opposite trends between the subpopulation with an aMAP score of ≥55 and < 55. To conclude, this study showed the value of the aMAP score in community settings and recommends using 55 as a new risk stratification threshold to guide subsequent liver cancer screening.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Hua He
- Department of Clinical Epidemiology, the First Hospital of Jilin University, Changchun, China
| | - Yanhua Wu
- Department of Clinical Epidemiology, the First Hospital of Jilin University, Changchun, China
| | - Zhifang Jia
- Department of Clinical Epidemiology, the First Hospital of Jilin University, Changchun, China
| | - Hongqin Xu
- Department of Hepatology, the First Hospital of Jilin University, Changchun, China
- Center of Infectious Diseases and Pathogen Biology, the First Hospital of Jilin University, Changchun, China
| | - Yuchen Pan
- Department of Clinical Epidemiology, the First Hospital of Jilin University, Changchun, China
- Center of Infectious Diseases and Pathogen Biology, the First Hospital of Jilin University, Changchun, China
| | - Donghui Cao
- Department of Clinical Epidemiology, the First Hospital of Jilin University, Changchun, China
| | - Yangyu Zhang
- Department of Clinical Epidemiology, the First Hospital of Jilin University, Changchun, China
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Jilin University, Changchun, China
| | - Xuerong Tao
- Department of Clinical Epidemiology, the First Hospital of Jilin University, Changchun, China
| | - Tianye Zhao
- Department of Clinical Epidemiology, the First Hospital of Jilin University, Changchun, China
| | - Haiyong Lv
- Department of Clinical Epidemiology, the First Hospital of Jilin University, Changchun, China
| | - Jiaxin Yi
- Department of Clinical Epidemiology, the First Hospital of Jilin University, Changchun, China
| | - Yuehui Wang
- Department of Geriatrics, the First Hospital of Jilin University, Changchun, China
| | - Yanhang Gao
- Department of Hepatology, the First Hospital of Jilin University, Changchun, China
- Center of Infectious Diseases and Pathogen Biology, the First Hospital of Jilin University, Changchun, China
| | - Changgui Kou
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Jilin University, Changchun, China
| | - Junqi Niu
- Department of Hepatology, the First Hospital of Jilin University, Changchun, China
- Center of Infectious Diseases and Pathogen Biology, the First Hospital of Jilin University, Changchun, China
| | - Jing Jiang
- Department of Clinical Epidemiology, the First Hospital of Jilin University, Changchun, China
- Center of Infectious Diseases and Pathogen Biology, the First Hospital of Jilin University, Changchun, China
| |
Collapse
|