A critical evaluation of whether recombination in virus-resistant transgenic plants will lead to the emergence of novel viral diseases

In the evaluation of the potential impacts of first-generation genetically modified (GM) crops, one of the most complex issues has been whether the expression of viral sequences would lead to the emergence of novel viruses, which could occur through recombination between transgene mRNA and that of an infecting non-target virus. Here, we examine this issue, focusing on Cucumber mosaic virus (CMV), which is a particularly pertinent choice, as it is both a major plant pathogen and also the virus with which this question has been studied in the most detail. Using recent results on recombination in CMV, we employ a novel framework giving particular prominence to the formulation of the risk hypothesis and to hypothesis testing via examination of the potential pathway to harm. This allows us to conclude with greater certainty that the likelihood of this potential harm, the emergence of novel viruses, is low.