Prolonged Wait Time Prior to Entry to Home Care Packages Increases the Risk of Mortality and Transition to Permanent Residential Aged Care Services: Findings from the Registry of Older South Australians (ROSA)

BACKGROUND

Older Australians prefer to live in their own homes for longer and reforms have attempted to increase the volume of home care packages (HCPs) accordingly but there remains a queue with the longer-term consequences unclear.

OBJECTIVES

This study aims to characterise older Australians according to their wait times for a home care package (HCP), evaluate the association between wait time and mortality and evaluate the association between wait time and transition to permanent residential aged care services after HCP.

DESIGN

A retrospective cohort study using data from the National Historical cohort (2003-2014) of the Registry of Older South Australians (ROSA) was conducted.

SETTING

Home based aged care services, national cohort.

METHODS

Wait time was estimated from approval date to date of receiving a HCP. Descriptive, survival estimates (95% confidence intervals (CIs)), and multivariable survival analyses (Cox-regression) were conducted to evaluate the risk of mortality and transition to permanent residential aged care services by quartiles of wait time for HCP.

RESULTS

The cohort was followed for 4.0 years (interquartile range IQR (1.8-7.2)) and 38% were alive at the end of the study period with a median wait time for HCP of 62 (21-187) days. From 178,924 older people who received a HCP during the study period (2003-2013), 33.2% people received HCP within 30 days, 74.3% within 6 months and 25.7% after 6 months. The effect of wait time on risk of mortality was time-dependent, with longer wait times associated with higher mortality in the longer term. Compared to people who waited ≤30 days for a HCP, individuals who waited more than 6 months had an almost 20% excess risk of death (adjusted hazard ratio (aHR), 95%CI = (1.18, 1.16-1.21)) 2 years after entry into a HCP. Those who waited more than 6 months also had a 10% (1.10, 1.06-1.13) higher risk of transition to permanent residential aged care services after two years.

CONCLUSION

Prolonged wait times for HCP is associated with a higher risk of long-term mortality as well as transition to permanent residential aged care. It remains to be seen if a shortening of this wait time translates into better health outcomes.

The genetic overlap between mood disorders and cardiometabolic diseases: a systematic review of genome wide and candidate gene studies

Meta-analyses of genome-wide association studies (meta-GWASs) and candidate gene studies have identified genetic variants associated with cardiovascular diseases, metabolic diseases and mood disorders. Although previous efforts were successful for individual disease conditions (single disease), limited information exists on shared genetic risk between these disorders. This article presents a detailed review and analysis of cardiometabolic diseases risk (CMD-R) genes that are also associated with mood disorders. First, we reviewed meta-GWASs published until January 2016, for the diseases 'type 2 diabetes, coronary artery disease, hypertension' and/or for the risk factors 'blood pressure, obesity, plasma lipid levels, insulin and glucose related traits'. We then searched the literature for published associations of these CMD-R genes with mood disorders. We considered studies that reported a significant association of at least one of the CMD-R genes and 'depression' or 'depressive disorder' or 'depressive symptoms' or 'bipolar disorder' or 'lithium treatment response in bipolar disorder', or 'serotonin reuptake inhibitors treatment response in major depression'. Our review revealed 24 potential pleiotropic genes that are likely to be shared between mood disorders and CMD-Rs. These genes include MTHFR, CACNA1D, CACNB2, GNAS, ADRB1, NCAN, REST, FTO, POMC, BDNF, CREB, ITIH4, LEP, GSK3B, SLC18A1, TLR4, PPP1R1B, APOE, CRY2, HTR1A, ADRA2A, TCF7L2, MTNR1B and IGF1. A pathway analysis of these genes revealed significant pathways: corticotrophin-releasing hormone signaling, AMPK signaling, cAMP-mediated or G-protein coupled receptor signaling, axonal guidance signaling, serotonin or dopamine receptors signaling, dopamine-DARPP32 feedback in cAMP signaling, circadian rhythm signaling and leptin signaling. Our review provides insights into the shared biological mechanisms of mood disorders and cardiometabolic diseases.

Mortality and Disability-Adjusted Life-Years (Dalys) for Common Neglected Tropical Diseases in Ethiopia, 1990-2015: Evidence from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

INTRODUCTION

Neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) are important public health problems in Ethiopia. In 2013, the Federal Ministry of Health (FMOH) has launched a national NTD master plan to eliminate major NTDs of public health importance by 2020. Benchmarking the current status of NTDs in the country is important to monitor and evaluate the progress in the implementation of interventions and their impacts. Therefore, this study aims to assess the trends of mortality and Disability-adjusted Life-Years (DALY) for the priority NTDs over the last 25 years.

METHODS

We used the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2015 estimates for this study. The GBD 2015 data source for cause of death and DALY estimation included verbal autopsy (VA), Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS), and other disease specific surveys, Ministry of Health reports submitted to United Nations (UN) agencies and published scientific articles. Cause of Death Ensemble modeling (CODEm) and/or natural history models were used to estimate NTDs mortality rates. DALY were estimated as the sum of Years of Life Lost (YLL) due to premature mortality and Years Lived with Disability (YLD).

RESULTS

All NTDs caused an estimated of 6,293 deaths (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 3699-10,080) in 1990 and 3,593 deaths (95% UI: 2051 - 6178) in 2015, a 43% reduction over the 25 years. Age-standardized mortality rates due to schistosomiasis, STH and leshmaniasis have declined by 91.3%, 73.5% and 21.6% respectively between 1990 to 2015. The number of DALYs due to all NTDs has declined from 814.4 thousand (95% UI: 548 thousand-1.2million) in 1990 to 579.5 thousand (95%UI: 309.4 thousand-1.3 million) in 2015. Age-standardized DALY rates due to all NTDs declined by 30.7%, from 17.6 per 1000(95%UI: 12.5-26.5) in 1990 to 12.2 per 1000(95%UI: 6.5 - 27.4) in 2015. Age-standardized DALY rate for trachoma declined from 92.7 per 100,000(95% UI: 63.2 - 128.4) in 1990 to 41.2 per 100,000(95%UI: 27.4-59.2) in 2015, a 55.6% reduction between 1990 and 2015. Age-standardized DALY rates for onchocerciasis, schistosomiasis and lymphiaticfilariasis decreased by 66.2%, 29.4% and 12.5% respectively between 1990 and 2015. DALY rate for ascariasis fell by 56.8% over the past 25 years.

CONCLUSIONS

Ethiopia has made a remarkable progress in reducing the DALY rates for most of the NTDs over the last 25 years. The rapid scale of interventions and broader system strengthening may have a lasting impact on achieving the 2020 goal of elimination of most of NTDs. Ethiopia should strengthen the coverage of integrated interventions of NTD through proper coordination with other health programs and sectors and community participation to eliminate NTDs by 2020.