Poland

Background

Research into the politics of health reforms usually looks at parties in a unidimensional way, in the classical left-right axis, where right parties are expected to marketize healthcare while left parties are expected to do the opposite. Populist Radical Right (PRR) parties do not neatly fit this unidimensional approach. The case of the Law and Justice party (PiS) in Poland is illustrative of the tenuous link between traditional neoliberal right-wing health policies and the PPR agenda.

Methods

We conducted a review of available primary sources (legal and policy documents) and secondary literature (academic, press, and think-tank publications). Resulting data was analysed thematically.

Results

Since its rise to power in 2015, PiS has departed from the previous center-right government's market-oriented healthcare policies. It retracted regulations aimed at commercialisation of public healthcare providers, introduced networks of hospitals to reduce internal market of providers and proposed the establishment of National Health Service (later abandoned). It continued the previous government's expansion of health coverage to universal by principle. In the 2019 election manifesto entitled “Polish Model of Welfare State” PiS explicitly states they “reject principles of neoliberalism”. Its most overtly right-wing stances were limited to strictly “cultural wars” context: reproductive health, sexual education, IVF reimbursement etc. Yet even in this instance the harshest proposals (such as stricter abortion laws) were not implemented.

Conclusions

PiS' health policies show that some PRR parties do not conform to a unidimensional left-right divide but rather combine left-wing redistributive policies with right-wing socially conservative stances. In many respects, the current government has enacted health policies that can be described as neo-Weberian and traditionally social-democratic.

Hungary

Background

The impact of Populist Radical Right (PRR) parties on health policy has so far been neglected by health policy and welfare state literature. The case of the Alliance of Young Democrats (Fidesz) in Hungary, a large PPR party which secured three consecutive supermajorities since 2010, is illustrative of the priorities PPR parties.

Methods

We conducted a review of available primary sources (legal and policy documents) and secondary literature (academic, press, and think-tank publications). Resulting data was analyzed thematically.

Results

Under Viktor Orban, Fidesz nominally stopped marketization reforms of the previous governments by re-nationalizing hospitals in its first term. However, voluntary and employer-sponsored private insurance has grown rapidly, resulting in a parallel system of health care financing and provision, likely due to continued underfunding and understaffing of the public sector. The government has not stopped the exodus of health professionals. In public health, Fidesz sought to reduce smoking rates by imposing a wide-reaching smoking ban and by nationalizing the sale of tobacco in its first mandate.

Conclusions

Fidesz' election in 2010 was brought in part due to protests against health privatization. Health care continued to be a prominent theme of the 2018 elections, this time mobilized by the far-right opposition as a grievance against the government. Fidesz's electoral success is less attributable to health policy than to nationalist and populist rhetoric.

Ulcer of Lipschutz, a rare and unknown cause of genital ulceration

Acute genital ulcers are painful and distressing to women. Lipchutz Ulcer is an uncommon disease that typically occurs in sexually inactive young women. The main differential diagnosis are sexually-transmitted or non-infectious diseases which cause genital or oro-genital ulcerations. This article aims to review the diagnosis of acute genital ulcers and, through a rare case of acute genital ulcerations, to discuss diagnostic procedures.

Use of a depot steroid formulation with CHOP-based protocol in the treatment of mediastinal lymphoma in cats

The aims of this retrospective study were to evaluate the efficacy of different steroid formulations (depot vs oral) and if the continuous administration of steroids throughout and beyond a CHOP protocol might improve the survival time and rate of cats with mediastinal lymphoma. The medical records of client-owned cats diagnosed with mediastinal lymphoma were reviewed at two veterinary referral hospitals in Spain. Cases were recruited from 2008 to 2016. Those cats with mediastinal lymphoma treated with chemotherapy were used in the collection of data including surgical procedures, chemotherapy protocol, side effects, complete remission (CR), partial remission and survival time were calculated from time of diagnosis. The median survival time (MST) of group with depot steroid was 370.7 days and all cats are still alive. The MST of group with oral steroid was 267.9 days. The survival distributions were found to be significantly different. The use of depot injectable steroids with a CHOP-based protocol seems to result in a longer survival time in patients with mediastinal lymphoma when comparing the survival distribution for those receiving oral steroids with a CHOP-based protocol. Prospective studies with a higher number of cats are warranted to investigate the utility of injectable steroids depot with a CHOP-based protocol in the treatment of mediastinal lymphoma.

Tracheostomy placement in infants with bronchopulmonary dysplasia: safety and outcomes

Optimizing the timing and safety for the placement of a tracheostomy in infants with bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD) has not been determined. The purpose of the present study was to describe the data from a single institution about the efficacy and safety of tracheostomy placement in infants with BPD needing long-term respiratory support. We established a service line for the comprehensive care of infants with BPD and we collected retrospective clinical data from this service line. We identified patients that had a trachostomy placed using the local Vermont-Oxford database, and obtained clinical data from chart reviews. We identified infants who had a tracheostomy placed for the indication of severe BPD only. Safety and respiratory efficacy was assessed by overall survival to discharge and the change in respiratory supportive care from just before placement to 1-month post-placement. Twenty-two patients (750 ± 236 g, 25.4 ± 2.1 weeks gestation) had a tracheostomy placed on day of life 177 ± 74 which coincided with a post-conceptual age of 51 ± 10 weeks. At placement these infants were on high settings to support their lung disease. The mean airway pressure (MAP) was 14.3 ± 3.3 cmH(2) O, the peak inspiratory pressure was 43.7 ± 8.0 cmH(2) O, and the FiO(2) was 0.51 ± 0.13. The mean respiratory severity score (MAP × FiO(2) ) 1 month after tracheostomy was significantly (P = 0.03) lower than prior to tracheostomy. Survival to hospital discharge was 77%. All patients with tracheostomies that survived were discharged home on mist collar supplemental oxygen. In conclusion, the high survival rate in these patients with severe BPD and the decreased respiratory support after placement of a tracheostomy suggests that high ventilatory pressures should not be a deterrent for placement of a tracheostomy. Future research should be aimed at determining optimal patient selection and timing for tracheostomy placement in infants with severe BPD.

Vibrationally resolved photoionization of N2 near threshold

A recently developed velocity map imaging spectrometer has been used to study the photoionization of molecular nitrogen near threshold. The potentialities of the spectrometer have been exploited to measure simultaneously the energy and angular distribution of the photoelectrons corresponding to the residual N(2)(+) X(2)Σ(g) v = 0-3 ion states. In a single experiment all the experimental observables, i.e., the total and partial cross sections, their branching ratios and the asymmetry parameter of the angular distributions have been determined.

Cytokine gene polymorphisms support diagnostic monitoring of Romanian multiple myeloma patients

INTRODUCTION

Cytokines and their receptor genes are very polymorphic. SNPs in the promotor region of the gene may influence the rate of cytokine secretion and may affect the biological activity of the encoded cytokine. A number of cytokines and cytokine receptors have been directly linked to the development of human cancers. The aim of our study was to determine the cytokine gene polymorphism in Romanian multiple myeloma patients.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

Cytokine genotyping was performed in 80 patients and 100 healthy blood donors using molecular biology methods (SSP-Invitrogen, USA).

RESULTS

Analyzing each polymorphic site, there was an increased frequency of the following genotypes in patients compared to control group: Interleukin-1beta (IL-1β) pos.+3962 TT, IL-12 pos.-1188 CC, gamma-Interferon (γ-IFN) pos.+874 AA, Transforming Growth Factor- beta1 (TGF- β1) codon10 TT, IL-2 pos.-330 TG and pos.+166 TT, Interleukin-4Receptor alpha (IL-4Rα) pos.-33 TC, IL-10 pos.-1082 GG and pos.-592 CC, IL-6 pos.-174 GG. It should be noted that almost one third of multiple myeloma patients had IL-6 pos.-174 GG genotype and 62% IL-10 GCC haplotype. These identified haplotypes are high interleukins producer, and this fact was confirmed by serum IL-6 and IL-10 levels performed by ELISA and enhanced chemiluminiscence methods.

CONCLUSION

These markers could be successfully used, together with other specific clinical and biological parameters, as reliable individualized prognostic factors in multiple myeloma patients.

Hand transplant--a challenge in immunological management of patients

The concept of composite tissue allotransplantation (CTA) for restoration of congenital or acquired deformities is not new and the recent success of clinical composite tissue allotransplantation (CTA) attests to the fact that composite tissue allografts have tremendous potential in these life-enhancing reconstructions. A hand transplant, unlike a solid organ transplant, involves multiple tissues (skin, muscle, tendon, bone, cartilage, fat, nerves and blood vessels) and can be considered the 'gold standard' in CTA. In this regard, no other organ or tissue transplant matches the hand transplant in its immunogenicity as well as complexity. Development of assays that allow us to monitor the current state of an immune response (rejection/tolerance) is of great interest and requires an in-depth understanding of the complex and rare phenomenon of tolerance.

A photoelectron velocity map imaging spectrometer for experiments combining synchrotron and laser radiations

A velocity map imaging/ion time-of-flight spectrometer designed specifically for pump-probe experiments combining synchrotron and laser radiations is described. The in-house built delay line detector can be used in two modes: the high spatial resolution mode and the coincidence mode. In the high spatial resolution mode a kinetic energy resolution of 6% has been achieved. The coincidence mode can be used to improve signal-to-noise ratio for the pump-probe experiments either by using a gate to count electrons only when the laser is present or by recording coincidences with the ion formed in the ionization process.

Primary immunodeficiencies of the B lymphocyte

The immune response consists of two main components: humoral immunity represented by B lymphocytes and cellular immunity maintained by the T lymphocytes. Immunoglobulins, produced by B-lymphocytes, are the main mediators of humoral immunity, and deficiencies at this level affect the body's response to infection. Plasmocytes produce nine antibody izotypes: immunoglobulins G (IgG1, IgG2, IgG3, IgG4), immunoglobulins M (IgM), immunoglobulins A (IgA1, IgA2), immunoglobulins D (IGD) and immunoglobulins E (IgE). Primary hypogammaglobulinemias are characterized by the occurrence of recurrent infections and, paradoxically, by the occurrence of autoimmune diseases. Characteristic for these diseases is that symptoms occur at 7-9 months after birth, when transplacental antibody titers transmitted from the mother decrease, and the infant's body is unable to synthesize them to normal levels. Primary hypogammaglobulinemias are transmitted genetically, but mutations at the molecular level are still not fully understood. The most common are: Bruton agammaglobulinemia, transient newborn hypogammaglobulinemia, selective immunoglobulin deficiency and variable common immunodeficiency. Treatment consists of monthly antibiotics and immunoglobulins, depending on antibody titers (except for IgA deficiency).

Excitation of 1S and 3S metastable helium atoms to doubly excited states

We present spectra of triplet and singlet metastable helium atoms resonantly photoexcited to doubly excited states. The first members of three dipole-allowed ;{1,3}P;{o} series have been observed and their relative photoionization cross sections determined, both in the triplet (from 1s2s ;{3}S;{e}) and singlet (from 1s2s ;{1}S;{e}) manifolds. The intensity ratios are drastically different with respect to transitions from the ground state. When radiation damping is included the results for the singlets are in agreement with theory, while for triplets spin-orbit interaction must also be taken into account.

State-to-state inelastic scattering of OH by HI: A comparison with OH–HCl and OH–HBr

Relative state-to-state cross sections and steric asymmetries have been measured for the scattering process: OH (X (2)Pi(32),v=0,J=32,M(J)=32,f)+HI ((1)Sigma,v=0,J<4)-->OH (X (2)Pi,v=0,Omega=12,J=12-52 and Omega=32,J=32-92,ef)+HI, at 690 cm(-1) collision energy. Comparison with the previously studied systems OH-HCl and OH-HBr reveals relevant features of the potential energy surfaces of these molecular systems. Some measured differences concerning the internal energy distribution after collision and the propensities for the impact with one or the other side of the OH molecule in scattering by HCl, HBr, and HI molecules are discussed.

Rotationally inelastic scattering of OH (Π3∕22, v=0, J=3∕2, f) by HBr (Σ1, v=0, J<4)

Relative state-to-state cross sections of OH molecules in the (2)Pi(32), v=0, J=32, M(J)=32, f state have been determined for transitions up to (2)Pi(32), v=0, J=112, f and (2)Pi(12), v=0, J=72, e states by collisions with HBr molecules ((1)Sigma, v=0, J<4) at 750 cm(-1) collision energy. In order to investigate features of the anisotropy of the OH-HBr potential energy surface, the steric asymmetries, which account for the effect of the OH orientation with respect to the collision partner, have been measured. A comparison with other systems previously studied shows strong similarities with the OH-HCl system.

Evaluating different radiology workstation interaction techniques with radiologists and laypersons

This paper presents a new methodology for evaluating radiology workstation interaction features, using lay subjects to perform a radiology look-alike task with artificial stimuli. We validated this methodology by evaluating two different workstation interaction techniques with two groups of subjects: laypersons and radiologists, using a set of artificial targets to simulate the reading of a diagnostic examination. Overall, the results from the two groups of subjects performing the same tasks were very similar. Both groups showed significantly faster response times using a new interaction technique, and the mouse clicks for both groups were very similar, showing that all the subjects mastered the style of interaction in a similar way. The errors made by both groups were comparable. These results show that it is possible to test new workstation interaction features using look-alike radiological tasks and inexperienced laypersons, and that the results do transfer to radiologists performing the same tasks.

Steric effects in state-to-state scattering of OH (Π3∕22,J=3∕2,f) by HCl

In this paper we address stereo-dynamical issues in the inelastic encounters between OH (chi2pi) radicals and HCl (chi1sigma+). The experiments were performed in a crossed molecular-beam machine at the nominal collision energy of 920 cm(-1). Prior to the collisions, the OH molecules were selected using a hexapole in a well-defined rotational state v=0, omega=32, J=32, M(J)=32, f, and subsequently oriented in a homogeneous electrical field. We have measured rotationally resolved relative cross sections for collisions in which OH is oriented with either the O side or the H side towards HCl, from which we have calculated the corresponding steric asymmetry factors S. The results are presented in comparison with data previously obtained by our group for the inelastic scattering of OH by CO (E(coll)=985 cm(-1)) and N2 (E(coll)=985 cm(-1)) studied under similar experimental conditions. The dissimilarity in the behavior of the OH+HCl system revealed by this comparison is explained on the basis of the difference in the anisotropy of the interaction potential governing the collisions. The interpretation of the data takes into account the specific features of both nonreactive and reactive parts of the potential-energy surface. The results indicate that the scattering dynamics at this collision energy may be influenced by the HO-HCl van der Waals well and by reorientation effects determined by the long-range electrostatic forces and, furthermore, may involve reactive collisions.

Inelastic state-to-state scattering of OH (Π3∕22,J=3∕2,f) by HCl

Parity resolved state-to-state cross sections for inelastic scattering of OH (X2Pi) by HCl were measured in a crossed molecular beam experiment at the collision energy of 920 cm(-1). The OH (X2Pi) radicals were prepared in a single quantum state, Omega=3/2, J=3/2, MJ=3/2, f, by means of electrostatic state selection in a hexapole field. The rotational distribution of the scattered OH radicals by HCl was probed by saturated LIF spectroscopy of the 0-0 band of the A 2Sigma+ - X 2Pi transition. Relative state-to-state cross sections were measured for rotational excitations up to J=9/2 within the Omega=3/2 spin-orbit manifold and up to J=7/2 within the Omega=1/2 spin-orbit manifold. A propensity for spin-orbit conserving transitions was found, but no propensity for excitation into a particular Lambda-doublet component of the same rotational state was evident. The data are presented and discussed in comparison with results previously obtained for collisions of OH with CO (Ecoll=450 cm(-1)) and N2 (Ecoll=410 cm(-1)) and with new data we have measured for the OH+CO system at a comparable collision energy (Ecoll=985 cm(-1)). This comparison suggests that the potential energy surface (PES) governing the interaction between OH and HCl is more anisotropic than the PES's governing the intermolecular interaction of OH with CO and N2.

Blood pressure variability and cognitive function in older hypertensives

Several studies have shown that cerebrovascular organ damage can related not only to average blood pressure (BP) levels, but also to BP variability. The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between 24 hr BP variability and cognitive function in older hypertensives. Forty older, never treated hypertensives were submitted to 24 hr ambulatory BP monitoring (ABPM) and subdivided, according to the variability of the systolic BP (SBP), in two groups: 23 with higher (> PV) and 17 with lower (< PV) SBP variability, defined as the standard deviation (SD) of the mean 24 hr SBP values and as coefficient of variation (CV). They underwent a cognitive assessment by mini mental state examination (MMSE) and a recording of the brain event-related potentials (ERPs). ERPs record neuronal electric activity when the patients are submitted to frequent and rare acoustic stimuli and must recognize and count rare (target) stimuli. The two groups with statistically different 24 hr SBP variability, did not show significant differences in MMSE scores or in N2 and P300 ERP latencies, thus indicating a lack of difference in the cognitive ability between the two groups. Our results show that cognitive function is not related to 24 hr SBP variability in older hypertensives.

Cyclooxygenase-2 in synovial tissue and fluid of dysfunctional temporomandibular joints with internal derangement

PURPOSE

This study investigated cyclooxygenase-2 (COX-2) gene expression in temporomandibular joint (TMJ) synovial tissue and fluid from patients with internal derangement.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Seventeen synovial tissue biopsy specimens and 16 synovial fluid samples were obtained from patients (1 male and 11 female) during arthroscopic TMJ surgery. The samples were frozen at -70 degrees C and, by using Northern and reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) analysis, the levels of COX-2 RNA in relation to beta-actin RNA message levels were determined.

RESULTS

COX-2 RNA message was detected in 16 of 17 synovial tissue samples (94%) and 12 of 16 synovial fluid samples (75%) by using beta-actin RNA levels in the same sample (either tissue or fluid) as an internal control. Samples were not quantified because of the same sample mass.

CONCLUSION

COX-2, an important inflammatory mediator, is present in the TMJ synovial tissue and fluid from patients with internal derangement. Therefore, COX-2 antagonists may be indicated in the treatment of TMJ arthralgia.

Prenatal ultrasonographic description and postnatal pathological findings in atelosteogenesis type 1

Atelosteogenesis type 1 (AO1) is a rare lethal chondrodysplasia characterized by incomplete ossification of cartilage anlagen. Histologically, the cartilage contains irregular clusters that occasionally include giant chondrocytes. Pulmonary hypoplasia is a characteristic finding that has been presumed to be the cause of neonatal lethality. We report on a male fetus with AO1 and document the early ultrasonographic/ radiologic progression of this disorder from 15 weeks gestation until delivery at 41 weeks. While the radiological findings we describe are typical of AO1 by the lack of proximal and middle phalangeal ossification, the complete radiological picture showed considerable overlap with boomerang dysplasia. Although pulmonary hypoplasia was present, it was moderate and considered unlikely to be the sole cause of death. Detailed neonatal and postmortem examination showed severe subglottic hypoplasia and tracheomalacia. The tracheal walls were supported by thin and pliable cartilaginous plates that allowed luminal collapse with minimal pressure. The marked luminal narrowing, tracheomalacia, and temporal proximity of extubation to demise support tracheal collapse as a major contributor to the death in AO1. The detailed description of this patient should contribute to earlier diagnosis of this condition; anticipation of the poor prognosis in AO1 is essential for appropriate genetic counseling of the parents and for determining postnatal treatment options.

ERWIN: an E-region wind interferometer

A field-widened Michelson interferometer designed to measure upper atmospheric winds at three altitudes near the mesopause by using airglow emissions from O(1)S, OH, and O(2) is described. A very large path difference (11 cm) is used to suppress the fringes from the hot F-region emission of O(1)S and to facilitate accurate measurements. Field widening and thermal compensation are achieved over the large spectral range (557.7-866.0 nm) by the use of three types of glass in the interferometer's arms. The instrument was installed at Resolute Bay, Canada (74.3 N, 94.5 W), in November 1992 and has been operated remotely from Toronto for four winter seasons. Some examples of data are shown to illustrate ERWIN's performance.

Imaging Fabry-Perot spectrometer for twilight observations

An imaging Fabry-Perot spectrometer specifically designed for ground-based studies of thermospheric photochemistry in twilight has been built, tested, and successfully applied to the measurement of the atomic-oxygen O I 844.6-nm emission. It employs a narrow-band interference filter in series with a stabilized étalon with fixed-plate separation and a 512 × 512 pixel bare CCD, and it achieves a bandpass of 0.02 nm. A least-squares data-reduction technique is shown to be effective in extracting the target feature from the surrounding background continuum. Data from one evening show slant column emission rates of 600 to 130 R.

[An association between ankylosing spondylitis and rheumatoid polyarthritis; comments on 3 cases]

The article is an analysis of 3 clinical cases, characterized by the presence of the lumbosacral axial involvement, with the radiological evidence of a bilateral sacroiliitis and a peripheral polyarthritis displaying a rheumatoid picture, with rheumatoid factors in the serum and in 2 of the cases also in the articular fluid. These cases belong to the HLA-27 B histocompatibility type, a feature which could be, according also to the data of literature, an explanation of the association of these two diseases.

Dietary vitamin A, beta carotene and risk of epidermoid lung cancer in south-western France

This hospital-based case-control study was designed to investigate the association of low dietary vitamin A and beta carotene consumption with epidermoid lung cancer. Cases were patients with histologically confirmed epidermoid lung cancer diagnosed in six selected hospitals of southwestern France in 1983-84. Controls were selected from patients admitted to the same hospitals during the same period with diagnoses other than cancer. Cases and controls were matched for sex, age, place of residence, occupation, professional exposure to carcinogens, tobacco and alcohol consumption. A total of 106 cases of epidermoid lung cancer and 212 controls were interviewed on their typical weekly intake of 80 food items rich in preformed vitamin A and beta carotene. Index measures of the vitamin A and beta carotene daily intakes were computed for each individual patient and expressed in retinol equivalent (RE). A statistically significant odds ratio (OR) was found for preformed vitamin A (OR = 4.3; 95% CI: 2.5-7.3) with the threshold of 1,000 RE. A similar result was found for beta carotene with the same threshold (OR = 4.1; 95% CI: 2.3-7.4). Using the conditional logistic regression, consumption of preformed vitamin A and consumption of beta carotene were significantly and independently associated with epidermoid lung cancer. While confirming the protective role of beta carotene against epidermoid lung cancer, this study also shows that preformed vitamin A might have a distinct and important protective effect.

[Prediction of true and false positive responses to exertion by a second exercise under sublingual nitroglycerin. Multivariate analysis]

The authors consider that the diagnostic value of exercise tests could be improved by a multivariate analysis integrating the ergometric data of two exercise tests: a reference test and a test performed under nitroglycerin. 109 patients without previous myocardial infarction who suffered from angina-like chest pain were explored. All had an ischaemic-type ST depression on the CM5 lead during the first exercise test and were tested again after sublingual administration of nitroglycerin. Both tests were continued until the theoretical maximum heart rate was reached or symptoms were no longer bearable. Coronary arteriography showed that 27 patients had normal coronary vessels and 82 had a coronary disease. At univariate analysis, two parameters were significant in predicting coronary disease. These were an in increase, between the two tests, of maximal work performed (from 95 +/- 1578 kpm to 2085 +/- 1662 kpm, p less than 0.001) and of the double product, i.e. maximum heart rate x maximum systolic arterial pressure (from 181 +/- 5289 to 3826 +/- 4245 mmHg.b.min-1, p less than 0.001). Five variables were selected by logistic regression analysis, viz.: change in ST depression between the two tests, double product during the first test, sex, modification of work performed between the two tests and occurrence of chest pain during the first test. By using a threshold analysis (less than 20 p. 100, greater than 80 p. 100), 76 p. 100 of the population was correctly classified; 82.9 p. 100 of coronary disease patients and 53 p. 100 of normal subjects were well classified, whereas 2.7 p. 100 of the population studied (all normal subjects) were erroneously classified.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Clinical and angiographic correlates and prognostic significance of the coronary extent score

The clinical and angiographic correlates and the prognostic significance of the "coronary extent score" in a consecutive series of 313 patients who were catheterized twice were studied. The extent score was defined as the number of 5 to 75% stenosed segments in a 15-segment coding system. The extent score was higher in subgroups of patients with new onset angina at the time of the first angiogram (4.3 +/- 2.4 vs 3.3 +/- 1.9, p less than 0.01), unstable angina at the time of the second angiogram (4.0 +/- 2.0 vs 3.3 +/- 1.9, p less than 0.05) or multifocal progression from the first to the second angiogram (4.0 +/- 2.1 vs 3.3 +/- 1.9, p less than 0.01), suggesting that it is an index of active coronary artery disease. The extent score did not correlate with the number of diseased vessels (r = 0.03), the ejection fraction (r = 0.03), the Friesinger score (r = 0.04) and the Gensini score (r = -0.07) (difference not significant for each). Cox's model was fit to the survival data recorded on a prospective basis after the second angiogram. Independent predictors of survival were ejection fraction (p less than 0.001), extent score (p = 0.001), number of diseased vessels (p = 0.01) and percent of left main luminal stenosis (p less than 0.05). The extent score was also an independent predictor of myocardial infarction and unstable angina. Thus, the extent score, an index of active progressive disease, is an independent predictor of mortality and cardiac events in patients with coronary artery disease.

Constrained poststratification

Adjustment for covariates (or poststratification) is frequently used in the analysis of randomized clinical trials. The purpose of such analysis is mainly to eliminate some residual bias resulting from any imbalance between treatment groups for some important covariates. Usually, covariate effect is modeled with the data at hand. In this paper, we present a new method of poststratification ("constrained poststratification") which consists of estimating the prognostic significance of covariates in a large historical data base, transferring the model's coefficients into the (smaller) randomized trial data set, and estimating treatment effects conditional on this a priori information. In a simulated experiment, constrained poststratification allowed not only reduction of the bias but also enhancement of the efficiency of the estimation of treatment effect.

Risk of preangioplasty occlusion and myocardial infarction in one-vessel-disease patients scheduled for percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty

Coronary occlusion or myocardial infarction occurred in 50 of 394 (13%) one-vessel-disease patients awaiting percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty (PTCA). To identify risk factors for these events, we first matched the 37 patients who demonstrated occlusion on the immediate preangioplasty repeat angiogram with 37 patients who did not. Matching was based on the time interval between angiograms, the date of the procedure, and the site of the lesion. Preangioplasty occlusion patients did differ from controls by age (47 +/- 11 vs 54 +/- 8 years, P less than .01), smoking status (34/37 vs 24/37, P less than .01), and angina class (2.6 +/- 1.0 vs 2.3 +/- 0.7, P less than .10) at the time of the first angiogram. Second, we pooled the data of the 37 preangioplasty occlusion patients with those of the 13 patients with preangioplasty myocardial infarction. The 50 cases with complication (coronary occlusion or myocardial infarction) were younger (47 +/- 12 vs 54 +/- 8 years, P less than .01), more often smokers (42/50 vs 24/37, P less than .05), and more symptomatic (2.7 +/- 0.8 vs 2.3 +/- 0.7, P less than .05) than the 37 controls. This study suggests that young smokers with severe angina are at high risk of preangioplasty occlusion and/or myocardial infarction; prompt management of these patients, when considered for PTCA, seems advisable.

Factors associated with progression of coronary artery disease in patients with normal or minimally narrowed coronary arteries

This study was performed to identify the subset of patients with normal or with minimal (49% or less) stenosis of the coronary vessels who may be prone to progressive coronary artery disease (CAD). Data were collected from 51 patients (19 men, 32 women, mean age 48 years) with normal coronary arteries (20 patients) or with minimal narrowing (31 patients) on a first angiogram, who underwent repeat catheterization 4 to 120 months later (mean 52) because of persistent chest pain. Three classic lifestyle-related risk factors (systemic hypertension, cigarette smoking status and hypercholesterolemia) were noted; the number of diseased segments on the first angiogram was counted according to a 15-segment coding system. Progression of CAD required the consensus of 3 observers on a 30% or greater decrease in luminal diameter. Progression was recorded in 16 of 31 patients with minimal CAD and in 3 of 20 patients with normal coronary arteries (p less than 0.01). By multivariate logistic regression, progression was predicted by (1) number of diseased segments (p = 0.001), (2) age (p less than 0.01), (3) smoking status (p less than 0.05) and (4) initial cholesterol level (p less than 0.05). Using the probability computed by the logistic model, we could separate the 51 patients in groups with low (0 of 18), medium (9 of 23) and high (10 of 10) risk of progression. Thus, patients with normal or minimally narrowed coronary arteries at angiography form a heterogeneous population including both normal or borderline subjects and patients with CAD at its early stage. The latter condition was associated with presence of risk factors and to the angiographic extent of the disease.

Comparison of receiver operating curves derived from the same population: a bootstrapping approach

The receiver operating curve (ROC) gives a representation of sensitivity and specificity of a prediction model when varying the cutpoint of a decision rule on a whole spectrum. Evaluation of two models established (or tested) in the same population of patients warrants a valid statistical comparison of their ROC curves. Hanley et al. recently provided a method for overall comparison of ROC curves (J. A. Hanley and B. J. McNeil, Radiology 148, 839-843, 1983). Often ROC curves cross, or differ in only a part of their courses. Bootstrapping of ROC curves is proposed as a graphical check for the statistical significance of differences confined to a part of the curve. An example comparing two models of prediction of coronary artery disease progression is given to illustrate this new approach.

Prognostic significance of progression of coronary artery disease

Angiographically documented coronary artery disease (CAD) can progress. Although progression itself is frequently recognized in patients who have undergone repeat cardiac catheterization, its prognostic significance remains unclear. To evaluate the influence of progression on survival, 313 patients with CAD who underwent catheterization twice (39 +/- 25 months apart) were followed for 3 to 129 months (mean 41 +/- 30) after the second angiogram. At the time of the second angiogram, 21, 91, 113 and 88 patients had 0-, 1-, 2- and 3-vessel CAD, respectively. The mean ejection fraction (EF) of the group was 55 +/- 13%. Progression was noted in 139 patients (44%). Of the 313 patients, 33 died and 39 had acute myocardial infarction (AMI) during follow-up. Four-year survival was estimated at 94% and 83% in the nonprogression and progression groups, respectively. Progression was predictive of survival by (univariate) long-rank test (p less than 0.01), but only EF (p less than 0.001), number of diseased vessels (p less than 0.01) and percent stenosis in the left main coronary artery (p less than 0.05) were independently significant by (multivariate) Cox regression analysis. Four-year survival without AMI was 89% and 73% in the nonprogression and progression groups, respectively. Progression was related to survival without AMI (p less than 0.001) by log-rank test. Cox regression analysis provided 3 independent predictors of survival without AMI: number of diseased vessels (p less than 0.01), progression (p less than 0.01), relative risk = 2.28) and EF (p less than 0.01). Results were similar when analyzing only the 39 AMIs.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Comparison of clinical variables and variables derived from a limited predischarge exercise test as predictors of early and late mortality after myocardial infarction

An exercise test limited to 5 METS or 70% of age-predicted maximal heart rate was performed 1 day before hospital discharge by 225 survivors of acute myocardial infarction, all of whom were subsequently followed up for at least 5 years. The mortality rate was 11.1% during the first year, but averaged only 2.9% per year from the second to fifth year. Over the entire follow-up period, the five variables that predicted mortality by multivariate analysis were QRS score, an exercise-induced ST segment shift, previous infarction, failure to achieve target heart rate or work load and ventricular arrhythmia during the exercise test. Because mortality differed markedly before and after 1 year, Cox regression analyses were performed separately for both of these periods. The factors that were predictive of mortality during the first year were an exercise-induced ST shift (p less than 0.0001, relative risk 7.8), failure to increase systolic blood pressure by 10 mm Hg or more during exercise (p = 0.0039, relative risk 4.3) and angina in hospital 48 hours or longer after admission (p = 0.0046, relative risk 3.4). None of these three variables was predictive of mortality after 1 year. Previous infarction (p = 0.0007), QRS score (p = 0.0042) and ventricular arrhythmia during the exercise test (p = 0.016) were predictive of mortality after the first year. Thus, clinical and exercise test variables are complementary predictors of mortality after myocardial infarction. An abnormal ST segment response during an early limited exercise test and angina in the hospital are common strong predictors of mortality to 1 year, but not thereafter. Late mortality correlates with markers of poor left ventricular function.

Coronary angiographic significance of left anterior fascicular block during acute myocardial infarction

The clinical and angiographic significance of isolated left anterior fascicular block occurring during the early stage of acute myocardial infarction was studied in 141 consecutive patients who underwent cardiac catheterization before hospital discharge. Left anterior fascicular block occurred in 15 of the 62 patients with an anterior wall infarction and in 13 of the 79 with an inferior infarction. None of the clinical characteristics differed among patients with or without left anterior fascicular block. The number of coronary vessels with significant stenosis, the Friesinger and the Gensini scores for severity of stenosis and the ejection fraction were also similar in the two groups. Patients with left anterior fascicular block had more severe narrowing of the coronary artery supplying the infarct zone (88 +/- 21 versus 70 +/- 35%, p less than 0.001) and tended to have less developed collateral circulation (collateral score 0.7 +/- 0.8 versus 1 +/- 0.8, p = 0.10). A significant stenosis of the left anterior descending coronary artery was found as frequently in patients with as in those without left anterior fascicular block (64 versus 65%); 29% of the patients with inferior wall infarction and left anterior fascicular block had left anterior descending coronary artery stenosis compared with 47% of the patients without this conduction disturbance (no significant difference). When the infarction was located anteriorly, a significant stenosis of the proximal segment of the left anterior descending coronary artery was present in 47% of the patients with and in 45% of the patients without left anterior fascicular block.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Spontaneous regression of coronary artery obstructions: incidence in 313 consecutive repeat angiograms

We studied the incidence of reversibility of coronary obstructions in a consecutive series of 313 patients with nonoperated coronary artery disease catheterized twice 3 to 118 (mean 38) months apart. Recanalization was observed in three patients and regression from an initial less than 100% obstruction in six patients. Progression in a different location occurred in six of the nine patients who demonstrated one recanalized or one regressive lesion. We conclude that true regression is an infrequent event in the natural history of medically treated patients with coronary artery disease; moreover, the pathophysiology and clinical relevance of angiographic regression remain poorly defined.

Is progression of coronary artery disease occurring at bouts or as a continuous process? Serial cineangiographic studies in 44 patients

In order to assess if coronary artery disease progression occurs as a slow, continuous process or at bouts, the coronary angiograms of 44 patients catheterized three times were reviewed. A previously developed logistic model, taking into account time interval between the angiograms, age, occurrence of unstable angina, and extent score of coronary artery disease, was used to compute a probability of progression from the second to the third angiogram. Two groups of patients were considered: those with (n = 15) and those without (n = 29) progression from the first to the second angiogram (PROGRESSION 1-2). A simulation provided in each group the distribution of the expected number of patients with progression from the second to the third catheterization. In the group without PROGRESSION 1-2, the observed number of progressions from the second to the third angiogram was in agreement with the expected one. However, in the group with PROGRESSION 1-2, the progression from the second to the third angiogram was more frequent than expected (p = 0.068). These results suggest that, in many patients, coronary artery disease progression is continuous over several years.

Clinical and angiographic predictors of new total coronary occlusion in coronary artery disease: analysis of 313 nonoperated patients

A new coronary artery occlusion was found in 98 of 313 consecutive patients (31%) with coronary artery disease treated medically who underwent catheterization twice, 39 +/- 25 months apart. Multivariate logistic regression displayed 8 independent predictors of new occlusion. Four were available at the time of the second angiogram: the interval between the 2 studies (p = 0.005), a decrease in ejection fraction (p less than 0.01), the appearance of bundle branch block (p less than 0.01), and an interim myocardial infarction (p less than 0.05). Four other predictors were found at the time of the first angiogram: 2 angiographic characteristics, 1 related to the severity (presence of an 80% or greater luminal diameter narrowing of an artery supplying a non-akinetic left ventricular segment [p less than 0.005]) and 1 to the extent (count of the lesions narrowed 75% or less in luminal diameter in a 15-segment coding system [p less than 0.05]) of coronary artery disease, and 2 risk factors: smoking status (p less than 0.05) and male sex (p less than 0.05). The 140 male smokers with at least 80% diameter stenosis or at least 4 segments with moderate (75% or less) stenosis were at a higher risk of occlusion than the 173 other patients after intervals of less than 2 years (13 of 53 vs 7 of 74, p less than 0.01), 2 to 4 years (23 of 40 vs 10 of 47, p less than 0.005) and more than 4 years (27 of 47 vs 18 of 54, p less than 0.05).(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Clinical and angiographic factors associated with progression of coronary artery disease

To characterize the clinical and angiographic factors associated with progression of coronary atherosclerosis, 313 consecutive medically treated patients who had had two coronary arteriograms 3 to 119 months (mean 39 +/- 25) apart were studied. One hundred eighty-one patients underwent recatheterization for stable angina, 52 for unstable angina and 80 for various other reasons. In addition to the conventional angiographic features present at the first angiographic study (number of diseased vessels 1.5 +/- 0.8, ejection fraction 59 +/- 11%), an extent score was defined based on the number of coronary segments with 5 to 75% narrowings from a 15 segment coding system. Multivariate logistic regression identified four independent predictors of progression of coronary artery disease: the interval between studies (p less than 0.0001), unstable angina (p less than 0.0001), a high extent score (p = 0.0001) and young age (p = 0.0026). In a subset of 74 patients aged 50 years or younger with, at the time of the first evaluation, an extent score of 4 or more, the probability of progression between 2 and 4 years and after 4 years was, respectively, 80 and 90% compared with 50% for the other patients. Risk stratification for progression of coronary artery disease can thus be obtained.

Exercise testing in the early period after myocardial infarction in the evaluation of prognosis

Prognosis for the patient recovery from an acute myocardial infarction is related mainly to electrical instability, left ventricular function, residual ischemia, and extent of coronary atherosclerosis. Many procedures now exist that allow investigation of these various aspects of cardiovascular function and stratification of risk. No ideal marker of prognosis exists because prognosis is not related to a single factor, because the various determinants are often interdependent, and also because they are time dependent. Thus, the presence of ischemia may be particularly important in the first year when the risk is greater, whereas left ventricular function may be the most important factor thereafter. For this reason, an active strategy for detecting ischemia, by exercise testing or other means, may add to clinical observation. Exercise testing is a safe and noninvasive method that can provide information not only on residual ischemia but also on other aspects of cardiovascular function. Many parameters can be studied, such as ST segment elevation or depression, chest pain, ventricular arrhythmias, tolerance to exercise, completion or not of the test, and the heart rate and blood pressure responses. Some of these data are not specific and must be complemented by further investigation. Such as approach should allow an overall evaluation of the cardiovascular function of the patient and an assessment of risk, and help institute an optimal treatment.

Unstable angina and progression of coronary atherosclerosis

We studied the progression of atherosclerotic coronary lesions in 38 patients who had previously undergone angiography and were later hospitalized for an episode of unstable angina pectoris, and in 38 matched patients with stable angina who had also undergone prior catheterization. Patients with unstable angina and those with stable angina were similar in terms of age (mean, 49 and 50 years, respectively), number of risk factors (1.5 per patient in both groups), interval between studies (mean +/- S.D., 44 +/- 31 and 35 +/- 31 months, respectively), number of diseased vessels on the first angiogram (1.52 in both groups), and initial ejection fraction (65 and 63 per cent, respectively). Progression of coronary lesions was demonstrated in 29 of the 38 patients with unstable angina, as compared with 12 of the 38 with stable angina (P less than 0.0005). Progression to 70 per cent or more stenosis was recorded in 21 of the patients with unstable angina but in only 5 of those with stable angina (P less than 0.0005). Also more frequent in the patients with unstable angina were multifocal progression (11 vs. 2, P less than 0.01) and progression of the left main or preseptal left anterior descending artery or both (9 vs. 1, P less than 0.01). Thus, we have demonstrated by angiography that unstable angina is associated with progression in the extent and severity of coronary atherosclerosis.