Intermediate levels of scientific knowledge are associated with overconfidence and negative attitudes towards science

Overconfidence is a prevalent problem and it is particularly consequential in its relation with scientific knowledge: being unaware of one's own ignorance can affect behaviours and threaten public policies and health. However, it is not clear how confidence varies with knowledge. Here, we examine four large surveys, spanning 30 years in Europe and the United States and propose a new confidence metric. This metric does not rely on self-reporting or peer comparison, operationalizing (over)confidence as the tendency to give incorrect answers rather than 'don't know' responses to questions on scientific facts. We find a nonlinear relationship between knowledge and confidence, with overconfidence (the confidence gap) peaking at intermediate levels of actual scientific knowledge. These high-confidence/intermediate-knowledge groups also display the least positive attitudes towards science. These results differ from current models and, by identifying specific audiences, can help inform science communication strategies.

Overconfidence in the Cognitive Reflection Test: Comparing Confidence Resolution for Reasoning vs. General Knowledge

This research examines the metacognitive awareness that people have about their reasoning performance in the Cognitive Reflection Test (CRT). The first two studies compare confidence judgments about the CRT vs. general knowledge (GK) questions. Results show that (1) people are generally able to discriminate between correct and incorrect answers, but this ability is far from perfect, and it is greater for GK questions than for CRT problems. Indeed, and strikingly, (2) incorrect responses to CRT problems are produced with approximately the same level of confidence as correct responses to GK questions. However, (3) even though confidence is high for incorrect responses to CRT problems, it is even higher for correct responses. The results of two additional studies show that these differences in confidence are ultimately related to the conflict that CRT problems pose between intuition and deliberation. These findings have implications for the possibility of implicit error monitoring and dual-process models of overconfidence.

Anchoring in a Social Context: How the Possibility of Being Misinformed by Others Impacts One's Judgment

Building on research about naïve theories of biases, we propose that people are more likely to engage in critical thinking when assessing others’ reasoning. Hence, anchoring effects should be reduced when anchor values are presented as others’ estimates and people perceive others as less knowledgeable (i.e., more prone to biases) than themselves. Three experiments tested this hypothesis by presenting the same anchors as other participants’ answers or without a specified source. This source manipulation was combined with explicit forewarnings about the anchoring effect, which have been shown to trigger debiasing efforts. In support of our hypothesis, results showed that anchors provided by a social source effectively reduced the anchoring effect and did so in a more reliable way than forewarnings. Furthermore, the response-time analysis in two of the experiments suggests that such attenuation was the result of deliberate adjustment.

Why leading is (almost) as important as winning

Competitions in sports, business, or politics often provide perceivers with cumulative standings over time. Recent research suggests that people fail to accurately update their impressions from cumulative observations as they are influenced by previous standings. This cumulative redundancy bias (CRB) implies that competitors that are leading during a competition will receive more favorable evaluations, over and beyond their eventual success or failure. While the CRB has far-reaching implications, its underlying mechanisms are not fully understood. We present data from four experiments in which we modified the standard CRB task by adding a step-by-step procedure to track the dynamics of perceivers' impressions during the competition. We also manipulated the length of the competition and tested different possible explanations for the CRB. Results suggest that the CRB is a robust phenomenon that constitutes an actual bias and that is best explained by an additive effect of cumulative redundancy.

Desirable Biases: Self-Enhancement Is Seen as Biased and Bad, Other-Enhancement Is Seen as Biased but Good

People who describe themselves as better than others are evaluated negatively, particularly when such self-enhancement is perceived as biased. This research replicates this finding, but it shows the opposite pattern for other-enhancement. People making flattering descriptions of their relatives and loved ones were seen as biased but likeable, whereas people who did not do so were seen as more realistic but less likeable. Critically, the enhancement of other people only inspired favorable impressions when it was perceived as sincere (i.e., true in the eyes of the enhancer). Moreover, and in line with an attributional account, the fewer people shared that assessment, the more it was perceived to reveal about the enhancer and how much they liked the target of the enhancement. This research suggests a nuanced version of the role of bias perception in impression formation, whereby biased appraisals are expected in certain domains, and they can inspire favorable impressions.

Blocking Effects in Social Inference Generalize Across Targets: Learning to Interpret a Person's Behavioral Cues Interferes With Learning About Other People's Behavior

Recent research has explored cue competition phenomena in social learning. In particular, blocking effects have been observed in the way people learn to infer someone's internal states from their behavioral cues: When people learn to associate a certain behavior with a certain internal state, this blocks their learning of subsequent behavioral cues that also predict the same state, when those cues are presented with the original behavior. In this research, we show that this blocking effect generalizes across targets, such that learning that a behavior predicts an internal state in a person hinders learning that other cues predict the same internal state in a different person, when both behaviors are presented simultaneously. This effect proved robust, and it was not moderated by the group membership of the targets.

AB1243 EFFICACY OF ABATACEPT IN THE TREATMENT OF JUVENILE IDIOPATHIC ARTHRITIS ASSOCIATED UVEITIS

Background

Juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA) is the most common rheumatic disease in pediatric age, uveitis IS the most frequent extra-articular complication (1). Uveitis, if not properly treated, can lead to potentially irreversible ocular complications such as blindness.

The treatment of uveitis associated with JIA (U-JIA) remains a challenge due to the aggressiveness of the disease and the frequency of complications.

Following the current guidelines for screening and treatment of uveitis, the use of topical and sistemic corticosteroids, Methotrexate, cyclosporine or some biological drugs such as Adalimumab constitute the mainstay of treatment in this manifestation.

In some refractory cases, the use of Abatacept has been reported

Objectives

To analyze the efficacy of Abatacept in the treatment of U-JIA from the data avaliable in the scientific literature.

Methods

We perform a systematic review of the scientific literature, following the PRISMA statement, using the following electronic databases: Medline, Embase, Cochrane Library and Web of Science.

Results

An overall of 89 bibliographic references fulfill the inclusion criteria. A total of 64 patients from 6 studies were followed for a mean time per patient of 11.5 months. The mean age of onset of JIA was 5.25 years, with a time of evolution of the disease of 7 and 11.85 years.

In all the series included, a high percentage of patients showed complications secondary to ocular inflammation (synechia, band keratopathy, cataracts, macular cystic edema and/or ocular hypertension) as well as visual deficits secondary to JIA-U.

All patients, fhave shown refractoriness to conventional DMARDs, as well as anti-TNF biological drugs.

In all the studies, the best correct visual activity (BCVA) is used as main outcome measure. Another outcome measures were used: number of uveitis flares, the erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR) and C-reactive protein (CRP), or the number of cells present in the anterior eye chamber.

Four series of cases showed an improvement or stabilization of visual acuity after Abatacept treatment. Two studies provided variations in visual acuity that are not statistically significant.

Regarding the efficacy of Abatacept, we can observe improvement, in the most of the studies we observed a decrease in the severity of the ocular inflammation and/or its complete remission.

Due to the lack of comparable data, a meta-analysis could not be performed. However the data suggest a clear recovery of t JIA-U patients refractory to conventional treatment.

Conclusion

Abatacept is shown as a promising drug in the treatment of U-JIA, considering its efficacy in improving visual acuity, as well as in the control of flare-ups and the decrease in inflammatory eye symptoms. However, more studies are necessary to corroborate the efficacy of Abatacept

References

[1]Sen ES, Ramanan A V. Juvenile idiopathic arthritis-associated uveitis. Best Pract Res Clin Rheumatol. 2017;31(4):517-534. doi:10.1016/j.berh.2018.01.002

[2]Constantin T, Foeldvari I, Anton J, et al. Consensus-based recommendations for the management of uveitis associated with juvenile idiopathic arthritis: The SHARE initiative. Ann Rheum Dis. 2018;77(8):1107-1117. doi:10.1136/annrheumdis-2018-213131

Disclosure of Interests

None declared

AB0902 Efficacy of IL-17 inhibitors in Psoriatic Arhtritis. Sistematic Review of Scientific Literature and Meta-Analysis

Background

Psoriatic arthritis is a chronic inflammatory joint disease with a great heterogeneity of manifestations both at the musculoskeletal (arthritis, enthesitis, dactylitis, axial skeleton involvement) and dermatological (skin, nail involvement) domain. The main goal of treatment is to maximize quality of life by controlling symptoms and preventing structural damage. For this, multidisciplinary management must be carried out without forgetting non-musculoskeletal manifestations and considering comorbidities.

Regarding pharmacological therapy to control arthritis, non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) and/or intra-articular corticosteroid injections are proposed as initial therapy. When symptoms are not controlled or there are associated poor prognostic factors, conventional disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (DMARDs) are recommended, especially methotrexate. When the classic DMARDs do not achieve good control of the disease, the next step will be the biological DMARDs, among which are TNF-alpha inhibitors, interleukin-17 inhibitors or inhibitors of the IL12/IL23 axis. Other molecules such as janus kinase (JAK) inhibitors or phosphodiesterase-4 inhibitors such as Apremilast also continue to be incorporated into treatment alternatives.

Although these drugs provide a promising result, the scarcity of direct comparative studies implies a need for more research to determine better treatment strategies.

Objectives

To analyze the efficacy of IL-17 inhibitors (Secukinumab, Ixekizumab, Brodalumab and Bimekizumab) in the treatment of patients diagnosed with psoriatic arthritis based on data published in randomised clinical trials (RCTs).

Methods

We perform a systematic review of the scientific literature using the Pubmed, Cochrane Library, Embase and Web of Science electronic databases, selecting RCTs evaluating the efficacy of IL-17 inhibitors for the treatment of psoriatic arthritis.

A meta-analysis was performed using the random-effects model for each efficacy measure evaluated at different weeks.

Results

23 studies met the selection criteria from a total of 2198 references identified in the search. 14 references contained data on the use of Secukinumab from 7 RCTs. Ixekizumab was the second IL-17 inhibitor most identified with 6 references with data from 5 RCTs. Bimekizumab with 2 references and Brodalumab with 1 reference completed the review.

Despite extracting efficacy data in nail, enthesitic and PROs manifestations. We were only able to perform meta-analyses of the ACR 20, AC50, ACR70 and PASI75 response rates at week 12 of treatment, due to the lack of statistically comparable data.

The meta-analysis performed demonstrated that IL-17 inhibitors are effective in psoriatic arthritis, compared to placebo in the different efficacy outcomes evaluated (ACR20 12 wk (OR: 3.60 [95%CI: 2.85-4. 55]), ACR50 12 wk (OR: 10.85 [95%CI: 6.20-18.94]), ACR70 12 wk (OR: 7.94 [95%CI: 4.23-14.91]) and PASI75 12 wk (OR: 21.26 [95%CI: 13.72-32.95])

Conclusion

Our review concluded that IL-17 inhibitors are effective in the treatment of patients who have shown intolerance or had an unsatisfactory response to other lines of treatment in Psoriatic arthritis.

References

[1]Ritchlin CT, Colbert RA, Gladman DD. Psoriatic Arthritis. N Engl J Med. 2017 Mar 9;376(10):957-70.

[2]Gossec L, Baraliakos X, Kerschbaumer A, de Wit M, McInnes I, Dougados M, et al. EULAR recommendations for the management of psoriatic arthritis with pharmacological therapies: 2019 update. Ann Rheum Dis. 2020 Jun;79(6):700-12.

Disclosure of Interests

None declared

OP0156 TOCILIZUMAB USE IN SYSTEMIC SCLEROSIS: SYSTEMATIC REVIEW AND META-ANALYSIS

Background

Systemic sclerosis (SSc) is a low-prevalent autoimmune disease with a heterogeneous presentation. Skin involvement is the most frequent symptom and its treatment is orphan, only attending at Raynaud’s phenomenon and classic immunosuppressive therapy for fibrosis. Lung implication is still remaining as the first cause of death. Interstitial lung disease (ILD) is the most frequent presentation and treatments most used includes cyclophosphamide and mycophenolate.1 In 2021, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approved the first biologic therapy for ILD-SSc, tocilizumab (TCZ), based on 2 clinical trials.2,3

Objectives

To assess TCZ efficacy in SSc, either in ILD or skin involvement.

Methods

A systematic literature review was made using Medline, Embase, Cochrane Library and the Web of Science databases. Search strategy focused in synonyms of SSc and TCZ, also including MeSH terms. A random-effects model meta-analysis was performed to evaluate TCZ efficacy, when comparable measures were found. Clinical trials, observational studies and case-series were eligible.

Results

Search strategy identified 1036 articles, finally 13 studies were eligible for the review. Regarding the effect of TCZ in SSc skin involvement, measured by the modified Rodnan Skin Score (mRSS), a non-significant 40% improvement in mRSS and change in mean mRSS was reported (OR 1.22 [0.74-2.01], p=0.43 and SMD -0.69 [-1,48-0.10], p=0.09, respectively). About ILD-SSc, a significant non-worsening 10% Forced Vital Capacity (FVC) was reported in patients treated with TCZ (OR 0.45 [0.23-0.86), p=0.02) (Figure 1). As well, a non-significant Diffusing capacity for carbon monoxide (DLCO) was observed in patients treated with TCZ (SMD -0.66 [-1.48- -0.17], p=0.12).

Figure 1.

Conclusion

Our study is the first review and meta-analysis of SSc patients treated with TCZ. This results show that TCZ could delay the worsening of ILD-SSc, being one therapeutic alternative to classical immunosuppressive therapy. Further studies are needed for better disease understanding and TCZ implications in other organ impairment.

References

[1]Desbois AC, Cacoub P. Systemic sclerosis: An update in 2016. Autoinmun Rev. 2016 May; 15 (5): 417-26.

[2]Khanna D, Denton CP, Jahreis A, et al. Safety and efficacy of subcutaneous tocilizumab in adults with systemic sclerosis (fascinate): a phase 2, randomized, controlled trial. Lancet, 2016;387(10038):2630-2640.

[3]Khanna D, Lin CJF, Furst DE, et al. Tocilizumab in systemic sclerosis: a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, phase 3 trial. Lancet Respir Med. 2020;8(10):963-974.

Disclosure of Interests

None declared

Investigation of the protective suitability of a dental fluorinated varnish by means of X Ray fluorescence and Raman spectroscopy

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Evaluating the protective effect in human enamel of a fluorinated varnish after enduring a citric acid erosive challenge.

METHODS

An in vitro model was developed considering the intraoral environment, human saliva and acid erosive procedures. The evaluation of the enamel specimens was undertaken through the direct analysis of enamel by means of Raman spectroscopy and Energy Dispersive X Ray Fluorescence (EDXRF). Ten tooth specimens per group were analysed during three stages: 1- before treatment; 2- After varnish (treatment group) or toothpaste (control) application; 3- After citric acid cycle. Additionally, Particle Induced Gamma Ray emission (PIGE) was used to gauge the fluorine uptake by enamel after the application of the varnish (stage 2). Results were presented as mean and standard deviation with ANOVA and Tukey post hoc performed considering a significance level of 0.05.

RESULTS

A significant (p < 0.05) higher Ca levels were detected in treatment group at stage 2 (37.4 ± 0.4 w/w%) and 3 (37.1 ± 0.1) when compared to the control group. After varnish application in treatment group, depolarization ratios were significant lower (p < 0.05) and anisotropy were significant higher (p < 0.05), however no differences were detected in FWHM.

CONCLUSIONS

The use of a fluorinated dental varnish suggests a protective effect for human enamel against dental erosion demineralization process which was detectable in an in vitro model.

Topographically guided hierarchical mineralization

Material platforms based on interaction between organic and inorganic phases offer enormous potential to develop materials that can recreate the structural and functional properties of biological systems. However, the capability of organic-mediated mineralizing strategies to guide mineralization with spatial control remains a major limitation. Here, we report on the integration of a protein-based mineralizing matrix with surface topographies to grow spatially guided mineralized structures. We reveal how well-defined geometrical spaces defined within the organic matrix by the surface topographies can trigger subtle changes in single nanocrystal co-alignment, which are then translated to drastic changes in mineralization at the microscale and macroscale. Furthermore, through systematic modifications of the surface topographies, we demonstrate the possibility of selectively guiding the growth of hierarchically mineralized structures. We foresee that the capacity to direct the anisotropic growth of such structures would have important implications in the design of biomineralizing synthetic materials to repair or regenerate hard tissues.

A diffusion model analysis of belief bias: Different cognitive mechanisms explain how cognitive abilities and thinking styles contribute to conflict resolution in reasoning

Recent results have challenged the widespread assumption of dual process models of belief bias that sound reasoning relies on slow, careful reflection, whereas biased reasoning is based on fast intuition. Instead, parallel process models of reasoning suggest that rule- and belief-based problem features are processed in parallel and that reasoning problems that elicit a conflict between rule- and belief-based problem features may also elicit more than one Type 1 response. This has important implications for individual-differences research on reasoning, because rule-based responses by certain individuals may reflect that these individuals were either more likely to give a rule-based default response or that they successfully inhibited and overrode a belief-based default response. In two studies, we used the diffusion model to describe decision making in a transitive reasoning task. In Study 1, 41 participants were asked to evaluate conclusions based on their validity. In Study 2, 133 participants evaluated conclusions based on their validity or believability. We tested which diffusion model parameters reflected conflict resolution and related those model parameters to individual differences in cognitive abilities and thinking styles. Individual differences in need for cognition predicted successful conflict resolution under logic instruction, which suggests that a disposition to engage in reflective thinking facilitates the inhibition and override of Type 1 responses. Intelligence, however, was negatively related to successful conflict resolution under belief instruction, which suggests that individuals with high cognitive abilities quickly generated a higher-level logical response that interfered with their ability to evaluate lower-level intrinsic problem features. Taken together, this double dissociation indicates that cognitive abilities and thinking styles affect the processing of conflict information through different mechanisms and at different stages: Greater cognitive abilities facilitate the efficient creation of decoupled problem representations, whereas a greater disposition to engage in critical thinking facilitates the detection and override of Type 1 responses.

Long term outcomes of biomaterial-mediated repair of focal cartilage defects in a large animal model

The repair of focal cartilage defects remains one of the foremost issues in the field of orthopaedics. Chondral defects may arise from a variety of joint pathologies and left untreated, will likely progress to osteoarthritis. Current repair techniques, such as microfracture, result in short-term clinical improvements but have poor long-term outcomes. Emerging scaffold-based repair strategies have reported superior outcomes compared to microfracture and motivate the development of new biomaterials for this purpose. In this study, unique composite implants consisting of a base porous reinforcing component (woven poly(ε-caprolactone)) infiltrated with 1 of 2 hydrogels (self-assembling peptide or thermo-gelling hyaluronan) or bone marrow aspirate were evaluated. The objective was to evaluate cartilage repair with composite scaffold treatment compared to the current standard of care (microfracture) in a translationally relevant large animal model, the Yucatan minipig. While many cartilage-repair studies have shown some success in vivo, most are short term and not clinically relevant. Informed by promising 6-week findings, a 12-month study was carried out and those results are presented here. To aid in comparisons across platforms, several structural and functionally relevant outcome measures were performed. Despite positive early findings, the long-term results indicated less than optimal structural and mechanical results with respect to cartilage repair, with all treatment groups performing worse than the standard of care. This study is important in that it brings much needed attention to the importance of performing translationally relevant long-term studies in an appropriate animal model when developing new clinical cartilage repair approaches.

Evaluation of the effect of fluorinated tooth bleaching products using polarized Raman microscopy and particle induced gamma-ray emission

In this in vitro study, the effect of the application of tooth bleaching products in human enamel was evaluated using polarized Raman microscopy, particle induced gamma-ray emission (PIGE) and Vickers Hardness test. Due to their acidic nature, teeth whitening products are associated with changes in enamel mineralization. Consequently, products have appeared in the market that promote the incorporation of fluorine in order to decrease the solubility of the hydroxyapatite in enamel and prevent demineralization. This way, four commercial products with different active principle concentrations: 16% carbamide peroxide (Opalescence PF® and VivaStyle®) or 6% hydrogen peroxide (Opalescence Go PF® and VivaStyle Paint On®) and presence or not of fluorine were compared. The information on the crystalline state of the enamel was provided by the determination of the depolarization ratio of the symmetric stretching band of phosphate (at 959 cm^-1). Furthermore, the content and uptake of F was evaluated using PIGE in the two fluorinated products as well as in one negative control group. In order to evaluate the microhardness of enamel by means of Vickers test, another group of polished samples was prepared (using Opalescence PF®) and evaluated. Conversely to what could be expected, the obtained results determined a statistically significant decrease of depolarization ratio, leading to an increase of mineralization after the application of the bleaching products, except for VivaStyle®. For this group, no significant variation was obtained before-after treatment, most likely due to the acidity of the product (pH = 5.8). Additionally, an increase of concentration of F in the dental tissues was determined for the fluorinated products. On the other hand, enamel polishing, required for the application of the Vickers test, led to increased susceptibility to erosion, resulting in decreased hardness and an increased enamel depolarization ratio.

Multiple Shared Realities: The Context Sensitivity of the Saying-Is-Believing Effect

People adjust how they talk about someone depending on whether their audience likes or dislikes that person. When they do so, they end up recalling the person more positively or negatively afterwards. This is known as the saying-is-believing effect, and it shows how tuning communication to an audience's attitudes and beliefs shapes one's memories. But people navigate a rich social world where they talk about the same person to different audiences with different attitudes. The current research shows that people's representations change as they do so, thus demonstrating the context sensitivity of the saying-is-believing effect. The typical saying-is-believing procedure—read about a person, describe her to others who like/dislike her, and then recall the original information—was adapted to fit multiple audiences with opposing attitudes. Results show that the same communicators recall the same person differently as a function of the audience context.

Safety and efficacy of endoscopic vacuum therapy for the treatment of perforations and anastomotic leaks of the upper gastrointestinal tract

AIM

To evaluate the efficacy and safety of endoscopic vacuum therapy (EVT) in the management of perforations and anastomotic leaks of the upper gastrointestinal tract.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

This is a retrospective observational study which included patients who underwent EVT due to any upper gastrointestinal defect between April 2017 and February 2019 in three Spanish Hospitals. To this end, we used the only medical device approved to date for endoscopic use (Eso-SPONGEr; B. Braun Melsungen AG, Melsungen, Germany).

RESULTS

11 patients were referred for EVT of an anastomotic leak after esophagectomy (n=7), gastrectomy (n=2), esophageal perforation secondary to endoscopic Zenker's septomiotomy (n=1) and Boerhaave syndrome (n=1). The median size of the cavity was 8×3cm. The median delay between surgery and EVT was 7 days. The median of EVT duration was 28 days. The median number of sponges used was 7 and the mean period replacement was 3.7 days. In 10 cases (91%), the defect was successfully closed. In 9 cases (82%) clinical resolution of the septic condition was achieved. 5 patients presented some adverse event: 3 anastomotic strictures, 1 retropharyngeal pain and 1 case of new-onset pneumonia. The median hospital stay from the start of EVT was 45 days. 1 patient died owing to septic complications secondary to the anastomotic leak.

CONCLUSION

EVT was successful in over 90% of perforations and anastomotic leaks of the upper gastrointestinal tract. Moreover, this is a safe therapy with only mild adverse events associated.

Validation of a Portuguese version of the Groningen radiotherapy-induced xerostomia questionnaire

Background

The aim of this study was to validate and determine at pretest level the reliability of the Portuguese version of the Groningen radiotherapy-induced xerostomia questionnaire.

Material and Methods

This study employed 37 head and neck cancer patients. Each patient signed an informed consent and responded to the Portuguese version of the questionnaire in the form of an interview. This was repeated again after 2 weeks. A standard single question provided a validity check. Data were analyzed using Cronbach’s α to test its reliability and total and interitem correlation, and intraclass correlation to determine its internal consistency and test-retest reliability. Construct validity supported by objective measurements as salivary secretion was also investigated. Significance was set at .05.

Results

Cronbach’s α was 0.91 and 0.89 for the first and second test administrations, respectively, which indicates that the internal consistency was excellent. The intraclass correlation coefficient value for the test-retest reliability was 0.70. The correlation between the total score of the questionnaire and standard single dry mouth question was 0.72 for the first round, indicating a good correlation.

Conclusions

Demonstrating very good psychometric properties, the Portuguese version of the Groningen radiotherapy-induced xerostomia questionnaire is a valid tool and can be considered a reliable instrument to measure xerostomia in head and neck cancer patients.

Key words:Xerostomia, quality of life, xerostomia questionnaire, transcultural validation, head and neck cancer, radiotherapy, saliva.

Metacognitive myopia in change detection: A collective approach to overcome a persistent anomaly

Going beyond the origins of cognitive biases, which have been the focus of continued research, the notion of metacognitive myopia refers to the failure to monitor, control, and correct for biased inferences at the metacognitive level. Judgments often follow the given information uncritically, even when it is easy to find out or explicitly explained that information samples are misleading or invalid. The present research is concerned with metacognitive myopia in judgments of change. Participants had to decide whether pairs of binomial samples were drawn from populations with decreasing, equal, or increasing proportions p of a critical feature. Judgments of p changes were strongly affected by changes in absolute sample size n, such that only increases (decreases) in p that came along with increasing (decreasing) n were readily detected. Across 4 experiments these anomalies persisted even though the distinction of p and n was strongly emphasized through outcome feedback and full debriefing (Experiment 1-4), simultaneous presentation (Experiments 2-4), and recoding of experienced samples into descriptive percentages (Experiment 3-4). In Experiment 4, a joint attempt was made by 10 scientists working in 7 different institutions to develop an effective debiasing training, suggesting how multilab-collaboration might improve the quality of science in the early stage of operational research designing. Despite significant improvements in change judgments, debiasing treatments did not eliminate the anomalies. Possible ways of dealing with the metacognitive deficit are discussed. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2020 APA, all rights reserved).

The redundancy in cumulative information and how it biases impressions

The present work identifies a so-far overlooked bias in sequential impression formation. When the latent qualities of competitors are inferred from a cumulative sequence of observations (e.g., the sum of points collected by sports teams), impressions should be based solely on the most recent observation because all previous observations are redundant. Based on the well-documented human inability to adequately discount redundant information, we predicted the existence of a cumulative redundancy bias. Accordingly, perceivers' impressions are systematically biased by the unfolding of a performance sequence when observations are cumulative. This bias favors leading competitors and persists even when the end result of the performance sequence is known. We demonstrated this cumulative redundancy bias in 8 experiments in which participants had to sequentially form impressions about the qualities of two competitors from different performance domains (i.e., computer algorithms, stocks, and soccer teams). We consistently found that perceivers' impressions were biased by cumulative redundancy. Specifically, impressions about the winner and the loser of a sequence were more divergent when the winner took an early lead compared with a late lead. When the sequence ended in a draw, participants formed more favorable impressions about the competitor who was ahead during most observations. We tested and ruled out several alternative explanations related to primacy effects, counterfactual thinking, and heuristic beliefs. We discuss the wide-ranging implications of our findings for impression formation and performance evaluation. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2019 APA, all rights reserved).

Observing Synchrony in Dyads

Abstract. This research tested whether observing members of a dyad behave in synchrony influences observers’ expectations and intentions about that dyad. In four studies, participants observed a dyad move in synchrony and were asked to make inferences about them. Results suggest that interpersonal synchrony serves as a social cue, such that observers expect the members of the dyad to work well together. Moreover, synchrony makes observers more likely to want to affiliate with the dyad. These findings shed light on how the social function of synchrony extends beyond the people who experience it to those who observe it.

Self-other asymmetries in the perceived validity of the Implicit Association Test

The Implicit Association Test (IAT) is the most popular instrument in implicit social cognition, with some scholars and practitioners calling for its use in applied settings. Yet, little is known about how people perceive the test's validity as a measure of their true attitudes toward members of other groups. Four experiments manipulated the desirability of the IAT's result and whether that result referred to one's own attitudes or other people's. Results showed a self-other asymmetry, such that people perceived a desirable IAT result to be more valid when it applied to themselves than to others, whereas the opposite held for undesirable IAT results. A fifth experiment demonstrated that these self-other differences influence how people react to the idea of using the IAT as a personnel selection tool. Experiment 6 tested whether the self-other effect was driven by motivation or expectations, finding evidence for motivated reasoning. All told, the current findings suggest potential barriers to implementing the IAT in applied settings. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2019 APA, all rights reserved).

Forecasting the duration of emotions: A motivational account and self-other differences

This research investigates the forecasts that people make about the duration of positive versus negative emotions, and tests whether these forecasts differ for self versus for others. Consistent with a motivated thinking framework, six studies show that people make optimistic, asymmetric forecasts that positive emotions will last longer than negative ones. However, for other people, wishful thinking is absent, and therefore people make less optimistic, more symmetric forecasts. Potential implications of these motivated forecasts and self-other differences are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2019 APA, all rights reserved).

Ad hoc categories and false memories: Memory illusions for categories created on-the-spot

Three experiments were designed to test whether experimentally created ad hoc associative networks evoke false memories. We used the DRM (Deese, Roediger, McDermott) paradigm with lists of ad hoc categories composed of exemplars aggregated toward specific goals (e.g., going for a picnic) that do not share any consistent set of features. Experiment 1 revealed considerable levels of false recognitions of critical words from ad hoc categories. False recognitions occurred even when the lists were presented without an organizing theme (i.e., the category's label). Experiments 1 and 2 tested whether (a) the ease of identifying the categories' themes, and (b) the lists' backward associative strength could be driving the effect. List identifiability did not correlate with false recognition, and the effect remained even when backward associative strength was controlled for. Experiment 3 manipulated the distractor items in the recognition task to address the hypothesis that the salience of unrelated items could be facilitating the occurrence of the phenomenon. The effect remained when controlling for this source of facilitation. These results have implications for assumptions made by theories of false memories, namely the preexistence of associations in the activation-monitoring framework and the central role of gist extraction in fuzzy-trace theory, while providing evidence of the occurrence of false memories for more dynamic and context-dependent knowledge structures. (PsycINFO Database Record

Motivated reasoning in the prediction of sports outcomes and the belief in the "hot hand"

The present paper explores the role of motivation to observe a certain outcome in people's predictions, causal attributions, and beliefs about a streak of binary outcomes (basketball scoring shots). In two studies we found that positive streaks (points scored by the participants' favourite team) lead participants to predict the streak's continuation (belief in the hot hand), but negative streaks lead to predictions of its end (gambler's fallacy). More importantly, these wishful predictions are supported by strategic attributions and beliefs about how and why a streak might unfold. Results suggest that the effect of motivation on predictions is mediated by a serial path via causal attributions to the teams at play and belief in the hot hand.

Contribution to the characterization of Opuntia spp. juices by LC-DAD-ESI-MS/MS

Opuntia spp. fruits are considered as health promoting foods due to the diversity of bioactive molecules found in these fruits. The composition in organic acids, flavonols and betalains in the Opuntia ficus-indica juice from a region of Portugal was accomplished for the first time by liquid chromatography and tandem mass spectrometry using an electrospray ionization source operating in negative and positive mode. The methodology used allowed the detection of 44 compounds, from which 32 were identified. Isorhamnetin derivatives were the dominant flavonol glycosides. A total of 9 betalains including 6 betaxanthins and 3 betacyanin were also detected in the fruit juice samples and indicaxanthin, betanin and isobetanin were the major pigments. Phenolic acid and phenylpyruvic acid derivatives were also identified. To our knowledge, it is the first time derivative compounds from piscidic acid, phenolic compounds and betalains are characterized in cactus pear juice using a single LC-DAD-ESI-MS/MS method.

Motivated Implicit Theories of Personality: My Weaknesses Will Go Away, but My Strengths Are Here to Stay

Across six studies, this research found consistent evidence for motivated implicit theories about personality malleability: People perceive their weaknesses as more malleable than their strengths. Moreover, motivation also influences how people see themselves in the future, such that they expect their present strengths to remain constant, but they expect their present weaknesses to improve in the future. Several additional findings suggest the motivational nature of these effects: The difference in perceived malleability for strengths versus weaknesses was only observed for the self, not for other people. When the desirability of possessing a certain trait was manipulated, that trait was perceived to be more malleable when it was depicted as undesirable. And these different beliefs that people have about how malleable their traits are, and how they will develop in the future, were associated with their desire for change, which is higher for weaknesses versus strengths.

Early experience with the Incisionless Operating Platform™ (IOP) for the treatment of obesity : the Primary Obesity Surgery Endolumenal (POSE) procedure

BACKGROUND

We report our initial experience and 6-month outcomes in a single center using the per-oral Incisionless Operating Platform™ (IOP) (USGI Medical) to place transmural plications in the gastric fundus and distal body using specialized suture anchors (the Primary Obesity Surgery Endolumenal [POSE] procedure).

METHODS

A prospective observational study was undertaken with institutional Ethics Board approval in a private hospital in Barcelona, Spain. Indicated patients were WHO obesity class I-II, or III, where patients refused a surgical approach.

RESULTS

Between February 28, 2011 and March 23, 2012, the POSE procedure was successfully performed in 45 patients: 75.6 % female; mean age 43.4 ± 9.2 SD (range 21.0-64.0). At baseline: mean absolute weight (AW, kg), 100.8 ± 12.9 (75.5-132.5); body mass index (BMI, kg/m(2)), 36.7 ± 3.8 (28.1-46.6). A mean 8.2 suture-anchor plications were placed in the fundus, 3.0 along the distal body wall. Mean operative time, 69.2 ± 26.6 min (32.0-126.0); patients were discharged in <24 h. Six-month mean AW was 87.0 ± 10.3 (68.0-111.5); BMI decreased 5.8 to 31.3 ± 3.3 (25.1-38.6) (p < 0.001); EWL was 49.4 %; TBWL, 15.5 %. No mortality or operative morbidity. Minor postoperative side effects resolved with treatment by discharge. Patients reported less hunger and earlier satiety post procedure. Liquid intake began 12 h post procedure with full solids by 6 weeks.

CONCLUSIONS

At 6-month follow-up of a prospective case series, the POSE procedure appeared to provide safe and effective weight loss without the scarring, pain, and recovery issues of open and laparoscopic bariatric surgery. Long-term follow-up and further study are required.

Early experience with the Incisionless Operating Platform™ (IOP) for the treatment of obesity : the Primary Obesity Surgery Endolumenal (POSE) procedure

BACKGROUND

We report our initial experience and 6-month outcomes in a single center using the per-oral Incisionless Operating Platform™ (IOP) (USGI Medical) to place transmural plications in the gastric fundus and distal body using specialized suture anchors (the Primary Obesity Surgery Endolumenal [POSE] procedure).

METHODS

A prospective observational study was undertaken with institutional Ethics Board approval in a private hospital in Barcelona, Spain. Indicated patients were WHO obesity class I-II, or III, where patients refused a surgical approach.

RESULTS

Between February 28, 2011 and March 23, 2012, the POSE procedure was successfully performed in 45 patients: 75.6 % female; mean age 43.4 ± 9.2 SD (range 21.0-64.0). At baseline: mean absolute weight (AW, kg), 100.8 ± 12.9 (75.5-132.5); body mass index (BMI, kg/m(2)), 36.7 ± 3.8 (28.1-46.6). A mean 8.2 suture-anchor plications were placed in the fundus, 3.0 along the distal body wall. Mean operative time, 69.2 ± 26.6 min (32.0-126.0); patients were discharged in <24 h. Six-month mean AW was 87.0 ± 10.3 (68.0-111.5); BMI decreased 5.8 to 31.3 ± 3.3 (25.1-38.6) (p < 0.001); EWL was 49.4 %; TBWL, 15.5 %. No mortality or operative morbidity. Minor postoperative side effects resolved with treatment by discharge. Patients reported less hunger and earlier satiety post procedure. Liquid intake began 12 h post procedure with full solids by 6 weeks.

CONCLUSIONS

At 6-month follow-up of a prospective case series, the POSE procedure appeared to provide safe and effective weight loss without the scarring, pain, and recovery issues of open and laparoscopic bariatric surgery. Long-term follow-up and further study are required.