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National tuberculosis spending efficiency and its associated factors in 121 low-income and middle-income countries, 2010–19: a data envelopment and stochastic frontier analysis. THE LANCET GLOBAL HEALTH 2022; 10:e649-e660. [PMID: 35427522 PMCID: PMC9023749 DOI: 10.1016/s2214-109x(22)00085-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/29/2021] [Revised: 01/25/2022] [Accepted: 02/21/2022] [Indexed: 12/12/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Maximising the efficiency of national tuberculosis programmes is key to improving service coverage, outcomes, and progress towards End TB targets. We aimed to determine the overall efficiency of tuberculosis spending and investigate associated factors in 121 low-income and middle-income countries between 2010 and 2019. Methods In this data envelopment and stochastic frontier analysis, we used data from the WHO Global TB report series on tuberculosis spending as the input and treatment coverage as the output to estimate tuberculosis spending efficiency. We investigated associations between 25 independent variables and overall efficiency. Findings We estimated global tuberculosis spending efficiency to be between 73·8% (95% CI 71·2–76·3) and 87·7% (84·9–90·6) in 2019, depending on the analytical method used. This estimate suggests that existing global tuberculosis treatment coverage could be increased by between 12·3% (95% CI 9·4–15·1) and 26·2% (23·7–28·8) for the same amount of spending. Efficiency has improved over the study period, mainly since 2015, but a substantial difference of 70·7–72·1 percentage points between the most and least efficient countries still exists. We found a consistent significant association between efficiency and current health expenditure as a share of gross domestic product, out-of-pocket spending on health, and some Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) indicators such as universal health coverage. Interpretation To improve efficiency, treatment coverage will need to be increased, particularly in the least efficient contexts where this might require additional spending. However, progress towards global End TB targets is slow even in the most efficient countries. Variables associated with TB spending efficiency suggest efficiency is complimented by commitments to improving health-care access that is free at the point of use and wider progress towards the SDGs. These findings support calls for additional investment in tuberculosis care. Funding None.
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Expansion of social protection is necessary towards zero catastrophic costs due to TB: The first national TB patient cost survey in the Philippines. PLoS One 2022; 17:e0264689. [PMID: 35226705 PMCID: PMC8884492 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0264689] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/13/2021] [Accepted: 02/15/2022] [Indexed: 11/23/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Tuberculosis (TB) is a disease associated with poverty. Moreover, a significant proportion of TB patients face a substantial financial burden before and during TB care. One of the top targets in the End TB strategy was to achieve zero catastrophic costs due to TB by 2020. To assess patient costs related to TB care and the proportion of TB-affected households that faced catastrophic costs, the Philippines National TB Programme (NTP) conducted a national TB patient cost survey in 2016–2017. Methods A cross-sectional survey of 1,912 TB patients taking treatment in health facilities engaged with the NTP. The sample consists of 786 drug-sensitive TB (DS-TB) patients in urban facilities, 806 DS-TB patients in rural facilities, and 320 drug-resistant TB (DR-TB) patients. Catastrophic cost due to TB is defined as total costs, consisting of direct medical and non-medical costs and indirect costs net of social assistance, exceeding 20% of annual household income. Results The overall mean total cost including pre- and post-diagnostic costs was US$601. The mean total cost was five times higher among DR-TB patients than DS-TB patients. Direct non-medical costs and income loss accounted for 42.7% and 40.4% of the total cost of TB, respectively. More than 40% of households had to rely on dissaving, taking loans, or selling their assets to cope with the costs. Overall, 42.4% (95% confidence interval (95% CI): 40.2–44.6) of TB-affected households faced catastrophic costs due to TB, and it was significantly higher among DR-TB patients (89.7%, 95%CI: 86.3–93.0). A TB enabler package, which 70% of DR-TB patients received, reduced catastrophic costs by 13.1 percentage points (89.7% to 76.6%) among DR-TB patients, but only by 0.4 percentage points (42.4% to 42.0%), overall. Conclusions TB patients in the Philippines face a substantial financial burden due to TB despite free TB services provided by the National TB Programme. The TB enabler package mitigated catastrophic costs to some extent, but only for DR-TB patients. Enhancing the current social and welfare support through multisectoral collaboration is urgently required to achieve zero catastrophic costs due to TB.
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The burden of drug resistance tuberculosis in Ghana; results of the First National Survey. PLoS One 2021; 16:e0252819. [PMID: 34111159 PMCID: PMC8191906 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0252819] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/14/2021] [Accepted: 05/21/2021] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
Resistance to Tuberculosis drugs has become a major threat to the control of tuberculosis (TB) globally. We conducted the first nation-wide drug resistance survey to investigate the level and pattern of resistance to first-line TB drugs among newly and previously treated sputum smear-positive TB cases. We also evaluated associations between potential risk factors and TB drug resistance. Using the World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines on conducting national TB surveys, we selected study participants from 33 health facilities from across the country, grouped into 29 clusters, and included them into the survey. Between April 2016 and June 2017, a total of 927 patients (859 new and 68 previously treated) were enrolled in the survey. Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex (MTBC) isolates were successfully cultured from 598 (65.5%) patient samples and underwent DST, 550 from newly diagnosed and 48 from previously treated patients. The proportion of patients who showed resistance to any of the TB drugs tested was 25.2% (95% CI; 21.8–28.9). The most frequent resistance was to Streptomycin (STR) (12.3%), followed by Isoniazid (INH) (10.4%), with Rifampicin (RIF), showing the least resistance of 2.4%. Resistance to Isoniazid and Rifampicin (multi-drug resistance) was found in 19 (3.2%; 95% CI: 1.9–4.9) isolates. Prevalence of multidrug resistance was 7 (1.3%; 95% CI: 0.5–2.6) among newly diagnosed and 12 (25.0%; 95% CI: 13.6–39.6) among previously treated patients. At both univariate and multivariate analysis, MDR-TB was positively associated with previous history of TB treatment (OR = 5.09, 95% CI: 1.75–14.75, p = 0.003); (OR = 5.41, 95% CI: 1.69–17.30, p = 0.004). The higher levels of MDR-TB and overall resistance to any TB drug among previously treated patients raises concerns about adherence to treatment. This calls for strengthening existing TB programme measures to ensure a system for adequately testing and monitoring TB drug resistance.
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Adaptation of WHO's generic tuberculosis patient cost instrument for a longitudinal study in Africa. Glob Health Action 2021; 14:1865625. [PMID: 33491593 PMCID: PMC7850383 DOI: 10.1080/16549716.2020.1865625] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/29/2022] Open
Abstract
The WHO developed a generic 'TB patient cost survey' tool and a standardized approach to assess the direct and indirect costs of TB incurred by patients and their households, estimate the proportion of patients experiencing catastrophic costs, and measure the impact of interventions to reduce patient costs. While the generic tool is a facility-based cross-sectional survey, this standardized approach needs to be adapted for longitudinal studies. A longitudinal approach may overcome some of the limitations of a cross-sectional design and estimate the economic burden of TB more precisely. We describe the process of creating a longitudinal instrument and its application to the TB Sequel study, an ongoing multi-country, multi-center observational cohort study. We adapted the cross-sectional WHO generic TB patient cost survey instrument for the longitudinal study design of TB Sequel and the local context in each study country (South Africa, Mozambique, Tanzania, and The Gambia). The generic instrument was adapted for use at enrollment (start of TB treatment; Day 0) and at 2, 6, 12 and 24 months after enrollment, time points intended to capture costs incurred for diagnosis, during treatment, at the end of treatment, and during long-term follow-up once treatment has been completed. These time points make the adapted version suitable for use in patients with either drug-sensitive or drug-resistant TB. Using the adapted tool provides the opportunity to repeat measures and make comparisons over time, describe changes that extend beyond treatment completion, and link cost survey data to treatment outcomes and post-TB sequelae. Trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT032516 August 1196, 2017. Abbreviations: DOTS: Directly observed treatment, short-course; DR-TB: Drug-resistant tuberculosis; MDR-TB: Multi-drug resistant tuberculosis; NTP: National Tuberculosis Programme; TB: Tuberculosis; USD: United States Dollar; WHO: World Health Organization.
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Cost-effectiveness of the latent tuberculosis screening program for migrants in Stockholm Region. THE EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF HEALTH ECONOMICS : HEPAC : HEALTH ECONOMICS IN PREVENTION AND CARE 2021; 22:445-454. [PMID: 33559787 PMCID: PMC7954754 DOI: 10.1007/s10198-021-01265-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/12/2020] [Accepted: 01/13/2021] [Indexed: 06/07/2023]
Abstract
INTRODUCTION The majority of tuberculosis (TB) cases in Sweden occur among migrants from endemic countries through activation of latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI). Sweden has LTBI-screening policies for migrants that have not been previously evaluated. This study aimed to assess the cost-effectiveness of the current screening strategy in Stockholm. METHODS A Markov model was developed to predict the costs and effects of the current LTBI-screening program compared to a scenario of no LTBI screening over a 50-year time horizon. Epidemiological and cost data were obtained from local sources when available. The primary outcomes were incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) in terms of societal cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY). RESULTS Screening migrants in the age group 13-19 years had the lowest ICER, 300,082 Swedish Kronor (SEK)/QALY, which is considered cost-effective in Sweden. In the age group 20-34, ICER was 714,527 SEK/QALY (moderately cost-effectives) and in all age groups above 34 ICERs were above 1,000,000 SEK/QALY (not cost-effective). ICER decreased with increasing TB incidence in country of origin. CONCLUSION Screening is cost-effective for young cohorts, mainly between 13 and 19, while cost-effectiveness in age group 20-34 years could be enhanced by focusing on migrants from highest incidence countries and/or by increasing the LTBI treatment initiation rate. Screening is not cost-effective in older cohorts regardless of the country of origin.
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Four of five tuberculosis patients experience catastrophic costs related to TB diagnosis and care in Timor-Leste. Int J Tuberc Lung Dis 2020; 23:1191-1197. [PMID: 31718755 DOI: 10.5588/ijtld.18.0765] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/10/2022] Open
Abstract
SETTING: Seventeen health care facilities that report to the national tuberculosis (TB) programme in Timor-Leste. Participants were TB patients.OBJECTIVE: To determine the proportion of TB patients who experienced catastrophic costs due to their TB diagnosis and care, and the magnitude and composition of these costs.DESIGN: This was a cross-sectional health facility-based survey, conducted in 17 DOTS centres between October 2016 and March 2017. TB patients were interviewed by trained nurses using a standardised questionnaire.RESULTS: Among the 457 TB patients who participated (response rate 96.6%), the median age was 32 years; 39.2% were from the capital, Dili. The patient was the main income earner in 26.3% of households. Annual individual and household incomes before and after TB diagnosis decreased by respectively 30.4% and 31.1%. Using a cut-off of 20% of annual household income, 83.0% of patients experienced catastrophic costs related to their TB diagnosis and care. Income loss and nutritional supplementation accounted for respectively 40.7% and 37.9% of these costs.CONCLUSION: Four of five TB patients in Timor-Leste experienced catastrophic costs related to TB diagnosis and care. Financial and social protection to mitigate against these costs are urgently needed, in addition to universal health coverage.
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Tuberculosis screening in outpatient healthcare workers: lessons from a high-income, low TB burden country. Int J Tuberc Lung Dis 2020; 23:1024-1028. [PMID: 31615611 DOI: 10.5588/ijtld.19.0060] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/10/2022] Open
Abstract
SETTING: Early diagnosis of latent tuberculous infection (LTBI) should be pursued in healthcare workers (HCWs). While HCWs in hospitals are screened for LTBI, HCWs in outpatient settings are usually not. In 2017, in Italy, a tuberculosis (TB) infected paediatrician working in an outpatient vaccination service infected 15 adults and nine children. The investigation involved 2490 children and 151 adults. Among children, nine were tuberculin skin test-positive, and four developed active TB. Among 123 adult contacts with longer exposure, seven were interferon-gamma release assay (IGRA) positive and none had active TB. Among 28 close contacts, eight had a positive IGRA, and three had pulmonary TB. The total outbreak cost €1 017 903.OBJECTIVE: To compare the outbreak cost with those of potential screening programme strategies.RESULTS: Regular screening of paediatric outpatient HCWs would have cost between €2592 and €11 373. Extending the screening to all outpatient HCWs (caring for adults and children) would have cost between €66 384 and €155 043. Investigating only close contacts would have cost €42 857.CONCLUSION: Each of these screening strategies would have been cost-effective compared with the outbreak investigation occurring in real life with a cut-off of 474 for the maximum number of tested outpatient HCWs needed for the screening strategy to be cost-saving.
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Tracking total spending on tuberculosis by source and function in 135 low-income and middle-income countries, 2000-17: a financial modelling study. THE LANCET. INFECTIOUS DISEASES 2020; 20:929-942. [PMID: 32334658 PMCID: PMC7649746 DOI: 10.1016/s1473-3099(20)30124-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/13/2019] [Revised: 01/31/2020] [Accepted: 02/14/2020] [Indexed: 12/17/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Estimates of government spending and development assistance for tuberculosis exist, but less is known about out-of-pocket and prepaid private spending. We aimed to provide comprehensive estimates of total spending on tuberculosis in low-income and middle-income countries for 2000-17. METHODS We extracted data on tuberculosis spending, unit costs, and health-care use from the WHO global tuberculosis database, Global Fund proposals and reports, National Health Accounts, the WHO-Choosing Interventions that are Cost-Effective project database, and the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation Development Assistance for Health Database. We extracted data from at least one of these sources for all 135 low-income and middle-income countries using the World Bank 2019 definitions. We estimated tuberculosis spending by source and function for notified (officially reported) and non-notified tuberculosis cases separately and combined, using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression to fill in for missing data and estimate uncertainty. We aggregated estimates of government, out-of-pocket, prepaid private, and development assistance spending on tuberculosis to estimate total spending in 2019 US$. FINDINGS Total spending on tuberculosis in 135 low-income and middle-income countries increased annually by 3·9% (95% CI 3·0 to 4·6), from $5·7 billion (5·2 to 6·5) in 2000 to $10·9 billion (10·3 to 11·8) in 2017. Government spending increased annually by 5·1% (4·4 to 5·7) between 2000 and 2017, and reached $6·9 billion (6·5 to 7·5) or 63·5% (59·2 to 66·8) of all tuberculosis spending in 2017. Of government spending, $5·8 billion (5·6 to 6·1) was spent on notified cases. Out-of-pocket spending decreased annually by 0·8% (-2·9 to 1·3), from $2·4 billion (1·9 to 3·1) in 2000 to $2·1 billion (1·6 to 2·7) in 2017. Development assistance for country-specific spending on tuberculosis increased from $54·6 million in 2000 to $1·1 billion in 2017. Administrative costs and development assistance for global projects related to tuberculosis care increased from $85·3 million in 2000 to $576·2 million in 2017. 30 high tuberculosis burden countries of low and middle income accounted for 73·7% (71·8-75·8) of tuberculosis spending in 2017. INTERPRETATION Despite substantial increases since 2000, funding for tuberculosis is still far short of global financing targets and out-of-pocket spending remains high in resource-constrained countries, posing a barrier to patient's access to care and treatment adherence. Of the 30 countries with a high-burden of tuberculosis, just over half were primarily funded by government, while others, especially lower-middle-income and low-income countries, were still primarily dependent on development assistance for tuberculosis or out-of-pocket health spending. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Improving the quality of modelling evidence used for tuberculosis policy evaluation. Int J Tuberc Lung Dis 2019; 23:387-395. [PMID: 31053179 PMCID: PMC6490058 DOI: 10.5588/ijtld.18.0660] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/28/2018] [Accepted: 11/12/2018] [Indexed: 12/23/2022] Open
Abstract
Mathematical modelling is commonly used to evaluate policy options for tuberculosis (TB) control in high-burden countries. Although major policy and funding decisions are made based on these analyses, there is concern about the variability of results produced using modelled policy analyses. We discuss new guidance for country-level TB policy modelling. The guidance was developed by the TB Modelling and Analysis Consortium in collaboration with the World Health Organization Global TB Programme, with input from a range of TB stakeholders (funders, modelling groups, country TB programme staff and subject matter experts). The guidance describes principles for country-level TB modelling, as well as good practices for operationalising the principles. The principles cover technical concerns such as model design, parameterisation and validation, as well as approaches for incorporating modelling into country-led policy making and budgeting. For modellers, this guidance suggests approaches to improve the quality and relevance of modelling undertaken to support country-level planning. For non-modellers, this guidance describes considerations for engaging modelling technical assistance, contributing to a modelling exercise and reviewing the results of modelled analyses. If routinely adopted, this guidance should improve the reliability, transparency and usefulness of modelling for country-level TB policy making. However, this guidance will not address all challenges facing modelling, and ongoing work is needed to improve the empirical evidence base for TB policy evaluation and develop stronger mechanisms for validating models. Increasing country ownership of the modelling process remains a challenge, requiring sustained engagement and capacity building.
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How affordable is TB care? Findings from a nationwide TB patient cost survey in Ghana. Trop Med Int Health 2018; 23:870-878. [PMID: 29851223 DOI: 10.1111/tmi.13085] [Citation(s) in RCA: 43] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES Tuberculosis (TB) is known as a disease of the poor. Despite TB diagnosis and care usually being offered for free, TB patients can still face substantial costs, especially in the context of multi-drug resistance (MDR). The End TB Strategy calls for zero TB-affected families incurring 'catastrophic' costs due to TB by 2025. This paper examines, by MDR status, the level and composition of costs incurred by TB-affected households during care seeking and treatment; assesses the affordability of TB care using catastrophic and impoverishment measures; and describes coping strategies used by TB-affected households to pay for TB care. METHODS A nationally representative survey of TB patients at public health facilities across Ghana. RESULTS We enrolled 691 patients (66 MDR). The median expenditure for non-MDR TB was US$429.6 during treatment, vs. US$659.0 for MDR patients (P-value = 0.001). Catastrophic costs affected 64.1% of patients. MDR patients were pushed significantly further over the threshold for catastrophic payments than DS patients. Payments for TB care led to a significant increase in the proportion of households in the study sample that live below the poverty line at the time of survey compared to pre-TB diagnosis. Over half of patients undertook coping strategies. CONCLUSION TB patients in Ghana incur substantial costs, despite free diagnosis and treatment. High rates of catastrophic costs and coping strategies in both non-MDR and MDR patients show that new policies are urgently needed to ensure TB care is actually affordable for TB patients.
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Methodological considerations for economic modelling of latent tuberculous infection screening in migrants. Int J Tuberc Lung Dis 2018; 21:977-989. [PMID: 28826446 DOI: 10.5588/ijtld.17.0134] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/10/2022] Open
Abstract
Tuberculosis (TB) in migrants from endemic to low-incidence countries results mainly from the reactivation of latent tuberculous infection (LTBI). LTBI screening policies for migrants vary greatly between countries, and the evidence on the cost-effectiveness of the different approaches is weak and heterogeneous. The aim of this review was to assess the methodology used in published economic evaluations of LTBI screening among migrants to identify critical methodological options that must be considered when using modelling to determine value for money from different economic perspectives. Three electronic databases were searched and 10 articles were included. There was considerable variation across this small number of studies with regard to economic perspective, main outcomes, modelling technique, screening options and target populations considered, as well as in parameterisation of the epidemiological situation, test accuracy, efficacy, safety and programme performance. Only one study adopted a societal perspective; others adopted a health care or wider government perspective. Parameters representing the cascade of screening and treating LTBI varied widely, with some studies using highly aspirational scenarios. This review emphasises the need for a more harmonised approach for economic analysis, and better transparency in how policy options and economic perspectives influence methodological choices. Variability is justifiable for some parameters. However, sufficient data are available to standardise others. A societal perspective is ideal, but can be challenging due to limited data. Assumptions about programme performance should be based on empirical data or at least realistic assumptions. Results should be interpreted within specific contexts and policy options, with cautious generalisations.
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Abstract
pSETTING: Households in Malawi, Mongolia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Rwanda, Tanzania, Viet Nam and Zambia.OBJECTIVE To assess the relationship between household socio-economic level, both relative and absolute, and individual tuberculosis (TB) disease. DESIGN We analysed national TB prevalence surveys from eight countries individually and in pooled multicountry models. Socio-economic level (SEL) was measured in terms of both relative household position and absolute wealth. The outcome of interest was whether or not an individual had TB disease. Logistic regression models were used to control for putative risk factors for TB disease such as age, sex and previous treatment history. RESULTS Overall, a strong and consistent association between household SEL and individual TB disease was not found. Significant results were found in four individual country models, with the lowest socio-economic quintile being associated with higher TB risk in Mongolia, Myanmar, Tanzania and Viet Nam. CONCLUSIONS TB prevalence surveys are designed to assess prevalence of disease and, due to the small numbers of cases usually detected, may not be the most efficient means of investigating TB risk factors. Different designs are needed, including measuring the SEL of individuals in nested case-control studies within TB prevalence surveys or among TB patients seeking treatment in health care facilities.
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Modelling the social and structural determinants of tuberculosis: opportunities and challenges. Int J Tuberc Lung Dis 2017; 21:957-964. [PMID: 28826444 PMCID: PMC5566999 DOI: 10.5588/ijtld.16.0906] [Citation(s) in RCA: 31] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/09/2016] [Accepted: 05/08/2017] [Indexed: 01/06/2023] Open
Abstract
INTRODUCTION Despite the close link between tuberculosis (TB) and poverty, most mathematical models of TB have not addressed underlying social and structural determinants. OBJECTIVE To review studies employing mathematical modelling to evaluate the epidemiological impact of the structural determinants of TB. METHODS We systematically searched PubMed and personal libraries to identify eligible articles. We extracted data on the modelling techniques employed, research question, types of structural determinants modelled and setting. RESULTS From 232 records identified, we included eight articles published between 2008 and 2015; six employed population-based dynamic TB transmission models and two non-dynamic analytic models. Seven studies focused on proximal TB determinants (four on nutritional status, one on wealth, one on indoor air pollution, and one examined overcrowding, socio-economic and nutritional status), and one focused on macro-economic influences. CONCLUSIONS Few modelling studies have attempted to evaluate structural determinants of TB, resulting in key knowledge gaps. Despite the challenges of modelling such a complex system, models must broaden their scope to remain useful for policy making. Given the intersectoral nature of the interrelations between structural determinants and TB outcomes, this work will require multidisciplinary collaborations. A useful starting point would be to focus on developing relatively simple models that can strengthen our knowledge regarding the potential effect of the structural determinants on TB outcomes.
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Cost-effectiveness and resource implications of aggressive action on tuberculosis in China, India, and South Africa: a combined analysis of nine models. Lancet Glob Health 2016; 4:e816-e826. [PMID: 27720689 PMCID: PMC5527122 DOI: 10.1016/s2214-109x(16)30265-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 62] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/11/2016] [Revised: 08/05/2016] [Accepted: 08/26/2016] [Indexed: 12/25/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The post-2015 End TB Strategy sets global targets of reducing tuberculosis incidence by 50% and mortality by 75% by 2025. We aimed to assess resource requirements and cost-effectiveness of strategies to achieve these targets in China, India, and South Africa. METHODS We examined intervention scenarios developed in consultation with country stakeholders, which scaled up existing interventions to high but feasible coverage by 2025. Nine independent modelling groups collaborated to estimate policy outcomes, and we estimated the cost of each scenario by synthesising service use estimates, empirical cost data, and expert opinion on implementation strategies. We estimated health effects (ie, disability-adjusted life-years averted) and resource implications for 2016-35, including patient-incurred costs. To assess resource requirements and cost-effectiveness, we compared scenarios with a base case representing continued current practice. FINDINGS Incremental tuberculosis service costs differed by scenario and country, and in some cases they more than doubled existing funding needs. In general, expansion of tuberculosis services substantially reduced patient-incurred costs and, in India and China, produced net cost savings for most interventions under a societal perspective. In all three countries, expansion of access to care produced substantial health gains. Compared with current practice and conventional cost-effectiveness thresholds, most intervention approaches seemed highly cost-effective. INTERPRETATION Expansion of tuberculosis services seems cost-effective for high-burden countries and could generate substantial health and economic benefits for patients, although substantial new funding would be required. Further work to determine the optimal intervention mix for each country is necessary. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Association between spending on social protection and tuberculosis burden: a global analysis. THE LANCET. INFECTIOUS DISEASES 2015; 16:473-9. [PMID: 26725446 DOI: 10.1016/s1473-3099(15)00401-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 68] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/18/2015] [Revised: 10/05/2015] [Accepted: 10/13/2015] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The End TB Strategy places great emphasis on increasing social protection and poverty alleviation programmes. However, the role of social protection on controlling tuberculosis has not been examined fully. We analysed the association between social protection spending and tuberculosis prevalence, incidence, and mortality globally. METHODS We used publicly available data from WHO's Global Tuberculosis Programme for tuberculosis burden in terms of yearly incidence, prevalence, and mortality per 100,000 people, and social protection data from the International Labour Organization (ILO), expressed as the percentage of national gross domestic product (GDP) spent on social protection programmes (excluding health). Data from ILO were from 146 countries covering the years between 2000 and 2012. We used descriptive assessments to examine levels of social protection and tuberculosis burden for each country, then used these assessments to inform our fully adjusted multivariate regression models. Our models controlled for economic output, adult HIV prevalence, health expenditure, population density, the percentage of foreign-born residents, and the strength of the national tuberculosis treatment programme, and also incorporated a country-level fixed effect to adjust for clustering of datapoints within countries. FINDINGS Overall, social protection spending levels were inversely associated with tuberculosis prevalence, incidence, and mortality. For a country spending 0% of their GDP on social protection, moving to spending 1% of their GDP was associated with a change of -18·33 per 100,000 people (95% CI -32·10 to -4·60; p=0·009) in prevalence, -8·16 per 100,000 people (-16·00 to -0·27; p=0·043) in incidence, and -5·48 per 100,000 people (-9·34 to -1·62; p=0·006) in mortality. This association was mitigated at higher levels of social protection spending, and lost significance when more than 11% of GDP was spent. INTERPRETATION Our findings suggest that investments in social protection could contribute to a reduced tuberculosis burden, especially in countries that are investing a small proportion of their GDP in this area. However, further research is needed to support these ecological associations. FUNDING National Institutes of Health National Center for Advancing Translational Science (University of California, Los Angeles [CA, USA] Clinical and Translational Science Institute).
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Abstract
BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE Stroke is a leading cause of disability. Rehabilitation robotics have been developed to aid in recovery after a stroke. This study determined the additional cost of robot-assisted therapy and tested its cost-effectiveness. METHODS We estimated the intervention costs and tracked participants' healthcare costs. We collected quality of life using the Stroke Impact Scale and the Health Utilities Index. We analyzed the cost data at 36 weeks postrandomization using multivariate regression models controlling for site, presence of a prior stroke, and Veterans Affairs costs in the year before randomization. RESULTS A total of 127 participants were randomized to usual care plus robot therapy (n=49), usual care plus intensive comparison therapy (n=50), or usual care alone (n=28). The average cost of delivering robot therapy and intensive comparison therapy was $5152 and $7382, respectively (P<0.001), and both were significantly more expensive than usual care alone (no additional intervention costs). At 36 weeks postrandomization, the total costs were comparable for the 3 groups ($17 831 for robot therapy, $19 746 for intensive comparison therapy, and $19 098 for usual care). Changes in quality of life were modest and not statistically different. CONCLUSIONS The added cost of delivering robot or intensive comparison therapy was recuperated by lower healthcare use costs compared with those in the usual care group. However, uncertainty remains about the cost-effectiveness of robotic-assisted rehabilitation compared with traditional rehabilitation. Clinical Trial Registration- URL: http://clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00372411.
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