Global burden of disease due to rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis: a mathematical modeling analysis

In 2020, almost half a million individuals developed rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis (RR-TB). We estimated the global burden of RR-TB over the lifetime of affected individuals. We synthesized data on incidence, case detection, and treatment outcomes in 192 countries (99.99% of global tuberculosis). Using a mathematical model, we projected disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) over the lifetime for individuals developing tuberculosis in 2020 stratified by country, age, sex, HIV, and rifampicin resistance. Here we show that incident RR-TB in 2020 was responsible for an estimated 6.9 (95% uncertainty interval: 5.5, 8.5) million DALYs, 44% (31, 54) of which accrued among TB survivors. We estimated an average of 17 (14, 21) DALYs per person developing RR-TB, 34% (12, 56) greater than for rifampicin-susceptible tuberculosis. RR-TB burden per 100,000 was highest in former Soviet Union countries and southern African countries. While RR-TB causes substantial short-term morbidity and mortality, nearly half of the overall disease burden of RR-TB accrues among tuberculosis survivors. The substantial long-term health impacts among those surviving RR-TB disease suggest the need for improved post-treatment care and further justify increased health expenditures to prevent RR-TB transmission.

Experience on the first national anti-TB drug resistance survey (DRS) in Timor-Leste

BACKGROUND

A national drug resistance survey (DRS) was implemented for the first time in Timor-Leste (TL) in 2019. The primary objective of the survey was to assess the prevalence of drug resistance among new and previously treated pulmonary TB patients in the country.

METHODS

This nation-wide cross-sectional survey was conducted in 2019 targeting all new and previously treated sputum smear-positive pulmonary TB patients. Sputum samples were submitted to the National TB Reference Laboratory for confirmation of TB and to determine resistance to rifampicin by Xpert MTB/RIF. Culture was performed on solid media, and culture isolates of confirmed TB cases were shipped to the WHO Supranational TB Reference Laboratory in Chennai, India for whole genome sequencing (WGS). Survey summary statistics, data cross-tabulations and analysis of potential risk factors of rifampicin-resistant TB (RR-TB) were conducted using R statistical software (version 3.5.2).

RESULTS

A total of 953 sputum-smear positive patients were enrolled, of which 917 were confirmed as positive for TB by either Xpert MTB/RIF or culture. An electronic web-based system was used for entry and storage of the data. Rifampicin resistance was detected among 0.6% (95% CI 0.2-1.3) of new cases and 2.7% (95% CI 0.5- 8.2) of previously treated cases. WGS was conducted for validation purposes on 65 randomly selected isolates (29% of RR-TB (2/7) and 7% of RS-TB (63/910) by Xpert MTB/RIF or pDST). The original test results agreed with the WGS validation results for 62/64 isolates (97%).

CONCLUSION

The prevalence of RR-TB in Timor-Leste is relatively low compared to the estimated proportions of RR-TB in the WHO South-East Asia Region (2.5% [95% CI 1.9-3.3] among new cases and 14% [95% CI 7.7-21] among previously treated cases). The rapid sputum collection and transportation mechanism implemented in the survey demonstrates its feasibility in low resource settings and should be replicated for routinely transporting TB specimens from microscopy labs to GeneXpert sites. Establishment of in-country capacity for rapid molecular diagnostics for both first- and second-line DST is an immediate need for achieving universal drug susceptibility testing (DST) to guide appropriate patient management.

Population structure, biogeography and transmissibility of Mycobacterium tuberculosis

Mycobacterium tuberculosis is a clonal pathogen proposed to have co-evolved with its human host for millennia, yet our understanding of its genomic diversity and biogeography remains incomplete. Here we use a combination of phylogenetics and dimensionality reduction to reevaluate the population structure of M. tuberculosis, providing an in-depth analysis of the ancient Indo-Oceanic Lineage 1 and the modern Central Asian Lineage 3, and expanding our understanding of Lineages 2 and 4. We assess sub-lineages using genomic sequences from 4939 pan-susceptible strains, and find 30 new genetically distinct clades that we validate in a dataset of 4645 independent isolates. We find a consistent geographically restricted or unrestricted pattern for 20 groups, including three groups of Lineage 1. The distribution of terminal branch lengths across the M. tuberculosis phylogeny supports the hypothesis of a higher transmissibility of Lineages 2 and 4, in comparison with Lineages 3 and 1, on a global scale. We define an expanded barcode of 95 single nucleotide substitutions that allows rapid identification of 69 M. tuberculosis sub-lineages and 26 additional internal groups. Our results paint a higher resolution picture of the M. tuberculosis phylogeny and biogeography.

First molecular-based anti-TB drug resistance survey in Eritrea

BACKGROUND: In the absence of reliable data on drug-resistant TB in Eritrea, a national survey was conducted in 2018 using molecular-based methods, bypassing the need for culture.METHODS: A cross-sectional study was conducted in all 77 TB microscopy centres in the country. All 629 newly registered sputum smear-positive pulmonary TB patients were enrolled over 12 months. Sputum samples were tested using the Xpert^® MTB/RIF assay and targeted next-generation sequencing (Deeplex Myc-TB) to identify resistance and explore the phylogenetics of Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex strains.RESULTS: Drug resistance profiles were obtained for 555 patients (502 new, 53 previously treated). The prevalence of rifampicin-resistant TB (RR-TB) was respectively 2.0% and 7.6% among new and previously treated cases. All RR-TB isolates that were susceptible to isoniazid displayed a phylogenetic marker conferring capreomycin resistance, confirming circulation of a previously described resistant TB sub-lineage in the Horn of Africa. Only one case of fluoroquinolone resistance was detected.CONCLUSION: The prevalence of rifampicin resistance among TB patients is encouragingly low. The scarcity of fluoroquinolone resistance bodes well for the success of the recommended all-oral treatment regimen. Surveillance based on molecular approaches enables a reliable estimation of the burden of resistance and can be used to guide appropriate treatment and care.

Ongoing challenges to understanding multidrug- and rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis in children versus adults

Previous analyses suggest that children with tuberculosis (TB) are no more or no less likely to have multidrug (MDR)- or rifampicin-resistant (RR)-TB than adults. However, the availability of new data, particularly for high MDR/RR-TB burden countries, suggest updates of country-specific estimates are warranted.We used data from population-representative surveys and surveillance collected between 2000 and 2018 to compare the odds ratio of MDR/RR-TB among children (aged <15 years) with TB, compared to the odds of MDR/RR-TB among adults (aged ≥15 years) with TB.In most settings (45 out of 55 countries), and globally as a whole, there is no evidence that age is associated with odds of MDR/RR-TB. However, in some settings, such as former Soviet Union countries in general, and Georgia, Kazakhstan, Lithuania, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan in particular, as well as Peru, MDR/RR-TB is positively associated with age ≥15 years. Meanwhile, in Western Europe in general, and the United Kingdom, Poland, Finland and Luxembourg in particular, MDR/RR-TB is positively associated with age <15 years. 16 countries had sufficient data to compare over time between 2000-2011 and 2012-2018, with evidence for decreases in the odds ratio in children compared to adults in Germany, Kazakhstan and the United States of America.Our results support findings that in most settings a child with TB is as likely as an adult with TB to have MDR/RR-TB. However, setting-specific heterogeneity requires further investigation. Furthermore, the odds ratio for MDR/RR-TB in children compared to adults is generally either stable or decreasing. There are important gaps in detection, recording and reporting of drug resistance among paediatric TB cases, limiting our understanding of transmission risks and measures needed to combat the global TB epidemic.

The risk of multidrug- or rifampicin-resistance in males versus females with tuberculosis

Males are at an increased risk of tuberculosis (TB) disease compared to females. Additionally, several risk factors for multidrug-resistant (MDR) or rifampicin-resistant (RR) TB disease are more common in males, hence male TB patients may have a higher relative risk of MDR/RR-TB than female TB patients.We used sex-disaggregated data of TB patients reported to the World Health Organization for 106 countries to calculate male-to-female (M:F) risk ratios of having MDR/RR-TB.There was no evidence of either sex being more at risk of MDR/RR-TB in 81% (86 out of 106) of countries, with an overall random-effects weighted M:F risk ratio of 1.04 (95% CI 0.97-1.11). In 12% (13 out of 106) of countries there was evidence that males were more at risk, while in 7% (seven out of 106), females were more at risk. The risk of having TB that was MDR/RR increased for males compared to females as MDR/RR-TB incidence increased, and was higher for males than females in the former Soviet Union, where the risk ratio was 1.16 (1.06-1.28). Conversely, the risk increased for females compared to males as gross domestic product purchase power parity increased, and was higher for females than males in countries where the majority of TB burden was found in the foreign-born population, where the risk ratio was 0.84 (0.75-0.94).In general, the risk of MDR/RR-TB, among those with TB, is the same for males as for females. However, males in higher MDR/RR-TB burden countries, particularly the former Soviet Union, face an increased risk that their infection is MDR/RR-TB, highlighting the need for a sex-differentiated approach to TB case-finding and care.

Multidrug-Resistant Tuberculosis in Côte d'Ivoire from 1995 to 2016: Results of National Surveys

Setting

Tuberculosis (TB) drug resistance survey was conducted in 2016–2017 to estimate the burden of drug-resistant TB in Côte d'Ivoire.

Design

A cross-sectional cluster-based survey was conducted. All eligible smear positive patients were interviewed using a structured questionnaire to collect clinical and sociodemographic information and tested by the Xpert Mycobacterium tuberculosis/rifampicin (MTB/RIF) assay. If resistant to rifampicin, solid and liquid cultures were performed. Phenotypic drug susceptibility testing (DST) was conducted in liquid medium for rifampicin, isoniazid, ethambutol, streptomycin, ofloxacin, and amikacin.

Results

Of the 1105 sputum smear positive patients enrolled, 995 new and 100 previously treated patients were positive for Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex by Xpert. Proportion of patients with rifampicin resistance was 4.6% (95% CI: 2.4–6.7) and 22% (95% CI: 13.7–30.3), respectively, for new and previously treated patients. Second-line DST results were available for most rifampicin-resistant patients. None were resistant to amikacin, only two were ofloxacin-resistant. Apart from the antecedent of previously treatment for TB, no other risk factors for rifampicin resistance were detected.

Conclusion

Prevalence of rifampicin resistance among TB patients in Côte d'Ivoire is higher than that in other countries in the region. Surveillance of drug resistance, through an expanded GeneXpert network, and programmatic management of drug-resistant TB (PMDT) must be strengthened in Côte d'Ivoire.

Genetic sequencing for surveillance of drug resistance in tuberculosis in highly endemic countries: a multi-country population-based surveillance study

Background

In many countries, regular monitoring of the emergence of resistance to anti-tuberculosis drugs is hampered by the limitations of phenotypic testing for drug susceptibility. We therefore evaluated the use of genetic sequencing for surveillance of drug resistance in tuberculosis.

Methods

Population-level surveys were done in hospitals and clinics in seven countries (Azerbaijan, Bangladesh, Belarus, Pakistan, Philippines, South Africa, and Ukraine) to evaluate the use of genetic sequencing to estimate the resistance of Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolates to rifampicin, isoniazid, ofloxacin, moxifloxacin, pyrazinamide, kanamycin, amikacin, and capreomycin. For each drug, we assessed the accuracy of genetic sequencing by a comparison of the adjusted prevalence of resistance, measured by genetic sequencing, with the true prevalence of resistance, determined by phenotypic testing.

Findings

Isolates were taken from 7094 patients with tuberculosis who were enrolled in the study between November, 2009, and May, 2014. In all tuberculosis cases, the overall pooled sensitivity values for predicting resistance by genetic sequencing were 91% (95% CI 87–94) for rpoB (rifampicin resistance), 86% (74–93) for katG, inhA, and fabG promoter combined (isoniazid resistance), 54% (39–68) for pncA (pyrazinamide resistance), 85% (77–91) for gyrA and gyrB combined (ofloxacin resistance), and 88% (81–92) for gyrA and gyrB combined (moxifloxacin resistance). For nearly all drugs and in most settings, there was a large overlap in the estimated prevalence of drug resistance by genetic sequencing and the estimated prevalence by phenotypic testing.

Interpretation

Genetic sequencing can be a valuable tool for surveillance of drug resistance, providing new opportunities to monitor drug resistance in tuberculosis in resource-poor countries. Before its widespread adoption for surveillance purposes, there is a need to standardise DNA extraction methods, recording and reporting nomenclature, and data interpretation.

Funding

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, United States Agency for International Development, Global Alliance for Tuberculosis Drug Development.

Sputum smear microscopy result: a predictor for drug-resistant tuberculosis?

Until countries establish capacity for continuous surveillance systems, representative surveys of tuberculosis (TB) patients continue to improve our understanding of the burden of drug-resistant TB and help ensure appropriate allocation of resources. Although the available data are limited, the current recommendation of restricting surveys to sputum smear-positive patients is justified, given the greatly simplified logistics and only limited evidence in specific settings of an association between drug resistance and sputum smear status. Nonetheless, the relationship between drug resistance and sputum smear microscopy results may vary according to the setting and population under study. With the increasing availability and use of molecular diagnostics and the drive for universal drug susceptibility testing under the World Health Organization's End TB Strategy, substantially more data on drug resistance in the whole TB patient population should become available in the near future.

Population-based resistance of Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolates to pyrazinamide and fluoroquinolones: results from a multicountry surveillance project

Background

Pyrazinamide and fluoroquinolones are essential antituberculosis drugs in new rifampicin-sparing regimens. However, little information about the extent of resistance to these drugs at the population level is available.

Methods

In a molecular epidemiology analysis, we used population-based surveys from Azerbaijan, Bangladesh, Belarus, Pakistan, and South Africa to investigate resistance to pyrazinamide and fluoroquinolones among patients with tuberculosis. Resistance to pyrazinamide was assessed by gene sequencing with the detection of resistance-conferring mutations in the pncA gene, and susceptibility testing to fluoroquinolones was conducted using the MGIT system.

Findings

Pyrazinamide resistance was assessed in 4972 patients. Levels of resistance varied substantially in the surveyed settings (3·0–42·1%). In all settings, pyrazinamide resistance was significantly associated with rifampicin resistance. Among 5015 patients who underwent susceptibility testing to fluoroquinolones, proportions of resistance ranged from 1·0–16·6% for ofloxacin, to 0·5–12·4% for levofloxacin, and 0·9–14·6% for moxifloxacin when tested at 0·5 μg/mL. High levels of ofloxacin resistance were detected in Pakistan. Resistance to moxifloxacin and gatifloxacin when tested at 2 μg/mL was low in all countries.

Interpretation

Although pyrazinamide resistance was significantly associated with rifampicin resistance, this drug may still be effective in 19–63% of patients with rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis. Even though the high level of resistance to ofloxacin found in Pakistan is worrisome because it might be the expression of extensive and unregulated use of fluoroquinolones in some parts of Asia, the negligible levels of resistance to fourth-generation fluoroquinolones documented in all survey sites is an encouraging finding. Rational use of this class of antibiotics should therefore be ensured to preserve its effectiveness.

Funding

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, United States Agency for International Development, Global Alliance for Tuberculosis Drug Development.

The fourth national anti-tuberculosis drug resistance survey in Viet Nam

SETTING

Viet Nam's Fourth National Anti-Tuberculosis Drug Resistance Survey was conducted in 2011.

OBJECTIVE

To determine the prevalence of resistance to the four main first-line anti-tuberculosis drugs in Viet Nam.

METHODS

Eighty clusters were selected using a probability proportion to size approach. Drug susceptibility testing (DST) against the four main first-line anti-tuberculosis drugs was performed.

RESULTS

A total of 1629 smear-positive tuberculosis (TB) patients were eligible for culture. Of these, DST results were available for 1312 patients, including 1105 new TB cases, 195 previously treated TB cases and 12 cases with an unknown treatment history. The proportion of cases with resistance to any drug was 32.7% (95%CI 29.1-36.5) among new cases and 54.2% (95%CI 44.3-63.7) among previously treated cases. The proportion of multidrug-resistant TB (MDR-TB) cases was 4.0% (95%CI 2.5-5.4) in new cases and 23.3 (95%CI 16.7-29.9) in previously treated cases.

CONCLUSIONS

The fourth drug resistance survey in Viet Nam found that the proportion of MDR-TB among new and previously treated cases was not significantly different from that in the 2005 survey. The National TB Programme should prioritise the detection and treatment of MDR-TB to reduce transmission of MDR-TB in the community.

Deletion in the gene BruAb2_0168 of Brucella abortus strains: diagnostic challenges

Three Brucella abortus strains were isolated from joint hygromas from cows in northern Togo. Two deletions in the 5' side of the gene BruAb2_0168 were identified. As this gene is used for species identification, these deletions have consequences for diagnostic procedures. Multiple locus variable number of tandem repeat (VNTR) analysis was therefore performed for species identification. The strains showed unique VNTR profiles, providing some of the first genotypic data from West Africa. More molecular and epidemiological data are needed from the region, in order to better understand transmission patterns and develop suitable diagnostic assays.

Potential risk of regional disease spread in West Africa through cross-border cattle trade

BACKGROUND

Transboundary animal movements facilitate the spread of pathogens across large distances. Cross-border cattle trade is of economic and cultural importance in West Africa. This study explores the potential disease risk resulting from large-scale, cross-border cattle trade between Togo, Burkina Faso, Ghana, Benin, and Nigeria for the first time.

METHODS AND PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

A questionnaire-based survey of livestock movements of 226 cattle traders was conducted in the 9 biggest cattle markets of northern Togo in February-March 2012. More than half of the traders (53.5%) operated in at least one other country. Animal flows were stochastically simulated based on reported movements and the risk of regional disease spread assessed. More than three quarters (79.2%, range: 78.1-80.0%) of cattle flowing into the market system originated from other countries. Through the cattle market system of northern Togo, non-neighbouring countries were connected via potential routes for disease spread. Even for diseases with low transmissibility and low prevalence in a given country, there was a high risk of disease introduction into other countries.

CONCLUSIONS

By stochastically simulating data collected by interviewing cattle traders in northern Togo, this study identifies potential risks for regional disease spread in West Africa through cross-border cattle trade. The findings highlight that surveillance for emerging infectious diseases as well as control activities targeting endemic diseases in West Africa are likely to be ineffective if only conducted at a national level. A regional approach to disease surveillance, prevention and control is essential.

Epidemiology of brucellosis and q Fever in linked human and animal populations in northern togo

Background

Although brucellosis (Brucella spp.) and Q Fever (Coxiella burnetii) are zoonoses of global importance, very little high quality data are available from West Africa.

Methods/Principal Findings

A serosurvey was conducted in Togo’s main livestock-raising zone in 2011 in 25 randomly selected villages, including 683 people, 596 cattle, 465 sheep and 221 goats. Additionally, 464 transhumant cattle from Burkina Faso were sampled in 2012. The serological analyses performed were the Rose Bengal Test and ELISA for brucellosis and ELISA and the immunofluorescence assay (IFA) for Q Fever Brucellosis did not appear to pose a major human health problem in the study zone, with only 7 seropositive participants. B. abortus was isolated from 3 bovine hygroma samples, and is likely to be the predominant circulating strain. This may explain the observed seropositivity amongst village cattle (9.2%, 95%CI:4.3–18.6%) and transhumant cattle (7.3%, 95%CI:3.5–14.7%), with an absence of seropositive small ruminants. Exposure of livestock and people to C. burnetii was common, potentially influenced by cultural factors. People of Fulani ethnicity had greater livestock contact and a significantly higher seroprevalence than other ethnic groups (Fulani: 45.5%, 95%CI:37.7–53.6%; non-Fulani: 27.1%, 95%CI:20.6–34.7%). Appropriate diagnostic test cut-off values in endemic settings requires further investigation. Both brucellosis and Q Fever appeared to impact on livestock production. Seropositive cows were more likely to have aborted a foetus during the previous year than seronegative cows, when adjusted for age. This odds was 3.8 times higher (95%CI: 1.2–12.1) for brucellosis and 6.7 times higher (95%CI: 1.3–34.8) for Q Fever.

Conclusions

This is the first epidemiological study of zoonoses in Togo in linked human and animal populations, providing much needed data for West Africa. Exposure to Brucella and C. burnetii is common but further research is needed into the clinical and economic impact.

Clinical manifestations of human brucellosis: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

The objectives of this systematic review, commissioned by WHO, were to assess the frequency and severity of clinical manifestations of human brucellosis, in view of specifying a disability weight for a DALY calculation.

Methods/Principal Findings

Thirty three databases were searched, with 2,385 articles published between January 1990–June 2010 identified as relating to human brucellosis. Fifty-seven studies were of sufficient quality for data extraction. Pooled proportions of cases with specific clinical manifestations were stratified by age category and sex and analysed using generalized linear mixed models. Data relating to duration of illness and risk factors were also extracted. Severe complications of brucellosis infection were not rare, with 1 case of endocarditis and 4 neurological cases per 100 patients. One in 10 men suffered from epididymo-orchitis. Debilitating conditions such as arthralgia, myalgia and back pain affected around half of the patients (65%, 47% and 45%, respectively). Given that 78% patients had fever, brucellosis poses a diagnostic challenge in malaria-endemic areas. Significant delays in appropriate diagnosis and treatment were the result of health service inadequacies and socioeconomic factors. Based on disability weights from the 2004 Global Burden of Disease Study, a disability weight of 0.150 is proposed as the first informed estimate for chronic, localised brucellosis and 0.190 for acute brucellosis.

Conclusions

This systematic review adds to the understanding of the global burden of brucellosis, one of the most common zoonoses worldwide. The severe, debilitating, and chronic impact of brucellosis is highlighted. Well designed epidemiological studies from regions lacking in data would allow a more complete understanding of the clinical manifestations of disease and exposure risks, and provide further evidence for policy-makers. As this is the first informed estimate of a disability weight for brucellosis, there is a need for further debate amongst brucellosis experts and a consensus to be reached.

Brucellosis is a bacterial disease transmitted to humans by consumption of infected, unpasteurised animal milk or through direct contact with infected animals, particularly aborted foetuses. The livestock production losses resulting from these abortions have a major economic impact on individuals and communities. Infected people often suffer from a chronic, debilitating illness. This systematic review on the symptoms of human brucellosis is the first ever conducted. Using strict exclusion criteria, 57 scientific articles published between January 1990–June 2010 which included high quality data were identified. Severe complications of brucellosis infection were not rare, with 1 case of endocarditis and 4 neurological cases per 100 patients. One in 10 men suffered from testicular infection, which can case sterility. Debilitating conditions such as joint, muscle, and back pain affected around half of the patients. Given that most patients had fever, brucellosis poses a diagnostic challenge in malaria-endemic areas where fever is often assumed to be malaria. More high quality data is needed for a more complete understanding of the clinical manifestations of disease and exposure risks, and to provide further evidence for policy-makers.