Phylogeography and genomic epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 in Italy and Europe with newly characterized Italian genomes between February-June 2020

The aims of this study were to characterize new SARS-CoV-2 genomes sampled all over Italy and to reconstruct the origin and the evolutionary dynamics in Italy and Europe between February and June 2020. The cluster analysis showed only small clusters including < 80 Italian isolates, while most of the Italian strains were intermixed in the whole tree. Pure Italian clusters were observed mainly after the lockdown and distancing measures were adopted. Lineage B and B.1 spread between late January and early February 2020, from China to Veneto and Lombardy, respectively. Lineage B.1.1 (20B) most probably evolved within Italy and spread from central to south Italian regions, and to European countries. The lineage B.1.1.1 (20D) developed most probably in other European countries entering Italy only in the second half of March and remained localized in Piedmont until June 2020. In conclusion, within the limitations of phylogeographical reconstruction, the estimated ancestral scenario suggests an important role of China and Italy in the widespread diffusion of the D614G variant in Europe in the early phase of the pandemic and more dispersed exchanges involving several European countries from the second half of March 2020.

Predicting corporate credit risk: Network contagion via trade credit

Trade credit is a payment extension granted by a selling firm to its customer. Companies typically respond to late payments from their customers by delaying payments to suppliers, thus generating a ripple through the transaction network. Therefore, trade credit is as a potential vehicle of propagation of losses in case of default events. The goal of this work is to leverage information on the trade credit among connected firms to predict imminent defaults of firms. We use a unique dataset of client firms of a major Italian bank to investigate firm bankruptcy between October 2016 to March 2018. We develop a model to capture network spillover effects originating from the supply chain on the probability of default of each firm via a sequential approach: the output of a first model component on single firm features is used in a subsequent model which captures network spillovers. While the first component is the standard econometrics way to predict such dynamics, the network module represents an innovative way to look into the effect of trade credit on default probability. This module looks at the transaction network of the firm, as inferred from the payments transiting via the bank, in order to identify the trade partners of the firm. By using several features extracted from the network of transactions, this model is able to predict a large fraction of the defaults, thus showing the value hidden in the network information. Finally, we merge firm and network features with a machine learning model to create a ‘hybrid’ model, which improves the recall for the task by almost 20 percentage points over the baseline.

Lack of effects of recombinant human growth hormone in a child with a complex cardiovascular malformation and dilated cardiomyopathy

Recent studies have suggested the beneficial effects of GH treatment in patients with dilated cardiomyopathy. We have treated with recombinant human growth hormone (rhGH) a 6-year-old female with a complex congenital heart defect (severe tricuspid hypoplasia and malposition of the great arteries), who developed a progressive dilated cardiomyopathy of unknown etiology. rhGH treatment (0,1 U/kg/day, for 3 months) did not improve cardiac function, nor clinical symptoms, although we have no clear explanations for this. However, a trial with rhGH may be offered to children with dilated cardiomyopathy and waiting for heart transplantation.

Growth hormone binding protein activity in obese children

We evaluated growth hormone binding protein (GHBP) activity in a group of obese children (12 boys and 12 girls, age 3.1-14.7 years, BMI 21.1-33.3, 11 prepubertal and 13 early pubertal) and in 26 age-matched normal weight children (14 boys and 12 girls, age 2.1-16.0 years, BMI 14.2-21.4, 18 prepubertal and 8 early pubertal). All children were of normal stature. GHBP activity was significantly higher in the obese (39.1 +/- 1.1%) than in the control children (28.3 +/- 1.0%, p < 0.0001). Mean serum GHBP was not different between boys and girls or between prepubertal and pubertal subjects. A positive correlation was found between BMI and GHBP levels only in the normal weight children (r = 0.425, p < 0.05). Baseline insulin concentrations in the obese children were 97.6 +/- 7.9 pmol/l (normal values, 45.0 +/- 18.6 pmol/l), and the mean insulin AUC following OGTT in the obese was 811.3 +/- 160.7 pmol/l (normal values, 373.1 +/- 150.1 pmol/l). Serum GHBP activity in the obese was not correlated with baseline serum insulin concentrations or with the insulin AUC following OGTT. In conclusion, we found that obese children have elevated GHBP activity, and speculate that this phenomenon may serve to compensate for their reduced GH secretion and accelerated GH clearance.