Determinants of excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in 18 countries of the CMOR consortium

 

Many countries suffered excess all-cause mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic. This study aims to identify factors associated with excess mortality rates (EMR) in partaking countries during 2020. Weekly all-cause death counts for 2015-2020 were extracted from national databases for Australia, Austria, Brazil, Cyprus, Denmark, Estonia, France, Georgia, Israel, Italy, Mauritius, Norway, Peru, Slovenia, Sweden, USA, Ukraine and UK. EMR per 100,000 population were gauged using a 5-year mean baseline. Separate OLS multiple linear regressions explored pre-pandemic country profiles including healthcare system, geographic, socio-economic and population factors. Feature selection methods detected the main factors contributing to 2020 EMR. The health system model showed that an extra nurse per 1,000 and a 1% increase in Healthcare Access and Quality Index reduces EMR by 41.7% (p = 0.019) and 0.48% (p = 0.034). The model was statistically significant (R^2=0.415,p=0.018). Although the geographical model suggested that a 1% increase in neighbouring countries increased EMR by 0.42% (p = 0.078), population density and the model itself were statistically insignificant (p > 0.05). The socio-economic and population model indicated a 1% increase in service employed (% of employed) and investment (% GDP) was linked with a 43.4% (p = 0.01) and 43.7% (p = 0.01) fall in EMR. The model was significant (R^2=0.488, p = 0.007). Death registration quality and population share over 70 years, improved model performance (R^2=0.632), but neither approached nominal significance. EMR during the COVID-19 pandemic benefited from higher ratios of nurses to population and able and prompt healthcare. The geographic traits were trivial in explaining EMR variation. Higher ratios of service employed, and investment (% of GDP) were linked to lower EMR. These results help to inform policies now and in future pandemics to strengthen resilience against EMR.

Key messages

• This study identified which pre-pandemic factors affected EMR in partaking countries, adding to a growing body of work on the COVID-19 pandemic.

• Higher ratios of nurses to population, able and prompt healthcare, higher % employed, and investment (% of GDP) were linked to lower EMR.

Breast cancer trends in women in Cyprus: a population-based study between 2004-2017

Background

In Cyprus, breast cancer (BC) is the first in incidence and second in mortality cancer in women. A national screening programme (NSP), targeting women 50-69 years, was introduced in 2007. The aim of this study is to provide a better understanding of cancer trends.

Methods

Data from the national population-based Cyprus Cancer Registry on adult women diagnosed with BC between 2004-2017 with follow-up until 2019 were analysed as follows: Joinpoint regression for age-adjusted (overall and by tumor stage at diagnosis - TSD) and age-specific rates (<50, 50-59, 60-69, 70-79, ≥ 80) incidence and mortality rates; 5-year age-adjusted Net Survival (NS) rates, overall and by TSD. TSD was categorised as localised, regional, and distant.

Results

Age-adjusted incidence rate increased from 135.3 (2004) to 153.2 (2017) per 100,000, with an annual percentage change (APC) of 1.1% (95%CI: 0.4-1.9). The greatest increase was in the age groups ≥70 years. A positive time trend was found for localized cancers between 2006-2017, while for all other stages nonsignificant trends were detected. Age-adjusted mortality rate increased from 37.0 (2004) to 50.0 (2019) per 100,000 (APC: 2.7%; 95%CI: 1.9-9.4). Significant increases in mortality rates were detected in the age groups ≥70 years. By TSD, increased rates were found at localised and regional stages, however smaller increases were detected since 2007. NS rates for the most recent period (2014-2017) was 93% for localized, 81% for regional, and 32% for distant and did not significantly improve compared to the previous years.

Conclusions

Trends in BC incidence continues to increase, especially in the older age groups and for early-stage cancers. As expected, since the introduction of the NSP, the incidence of localised cancers increased whilst the incidence of advanced stage cancer decreased, albeit non-significantly. Survival trends did not change but mortality rates for localised and regional cancers increased at a slower pace.

Key messages

• The introduction of the national screening programme may have played an important role in the increasing BC incidence trends.

• Despite survival rates not improving since the introduction of the national screening programme, mortality rates for early-stage cancers show a less steep increase.

Total, sex and age-specific excess mortality during 2020 in 20 countries part of the C-MOR consortium

 

Nationally published COVID-19 mortality estimates might underestimate the actual mortality burden attributed to COVID-19. Estimations of excess all-cause mortality can provide more accurate estimates of the toll of the pandemic. This study aims to estimate the overall, sex and age-specific excess all-cause mortality in 20 countries, during 2020. Total, sex and age-specific weekly all-cause death counts for 2015-2020 were extracted from national vital statistics databases. Percent excess mortality for 2020 was calculated by comparing average weekly 2020 mortality rates against average weekly mortality rates from the past five years (2015-2019). Comparisons were performed for the total population, per sex, and per age groups (<65 vs. 65+ or < 70 vs.70+) depending on data availability. Percent difference in average weekly mortality between 2020 and 2015-2019 ranged from negative for Australia and Norway, to < 5% for Denmark, Cyprus, Estonia, Israel, and Sweden, 5-10% for Georgia, Mauritius, Ukraine, Austria, France, Scotland and Northern Ireland, to ∼10-21% for England & Wales, Italy, Brazil, USA, Slovenia, and to 89% for Peru. The percent difference in average weekly mortality between 2020 and 2015-2019 for males was higher than for females except for Cyprus, Estonia, Slovenia and the USA. Lastly, in age specific analyses, for the majority of countries the % increase in average weekly mortality between 2020 and 2015-2019, was higher in the oldest age group investigated, however, for Peru and the USA (<65 vs. 65+ years) and for Cyprus and Mauritius (<70 vs. 70+ years), mortality increased similarly in both age groups. This study highlights that the excess mortality burden during the COVID-19 pandemic disproportionally affected specific countries, males, and in most, but not all countries, the oldest age groups. Strengthening of health resilience in the most affected countries, while targeting population groups impacted the most, is of paramount public health importance.

Key messages

• Excess mortality burden during the COVID-19 pandemic disproportionally affected specific countries, and even within countries specific sex and age groups.

• Further investigation into the determinants of excess mortality is needed to suggest steps to strengthen health resilience in the countries and target population groups impacted the most.

Potential life years lost to COVID-19 in 17 countries during the pandemic period, up to August 2020

Background

COVID-19 pandemic is affecting populations and regions in different ways. In this study, we assess the Potential Years of Life Lost (PYLL) to COVID-19 across different regions.

Methods

We used age-group and sex-specific weekly COVID-19 deaths (from January to August 2020) from national primary sources of 17 countries from the C-MOR consortium (Australia, Brazil, Cape Verde, Colombia, Cyprus, France, Georgia, Israel, Kazakhstan, Peru, Norway, England & Wales, Scotland, Slovenia, Sweden, Ukraine, and the United States). PYLL were calculated by summing up the numbers of deaths in each age group multiplied by the remaining years of life up to age 80. Age-standardized PYLL rates (per 100,000 population), using the World (WHO 2000-2025) Standard population as the reference population, were estimated to facilitate comparison across countries.

Results

Countries in South America displayed the highest PYLL rates (567-1,377 PYLL/100,000). Countries in Asia & Middle East (besides Kazakhstan), Australia, and some European countries (Georgia, Norway, and Slovenia) observed <50 PYLL/100,000. Furthermore, the male to female PYLL rate ratio was above one in all countries [1.3 (Ukraine) - 14.4 (Cyprus)], besides Georgia (ratio = 0.5).

Conclusions

South America, and males were found to be the most affected by COVID-19. Ongoing monitoring of the COVID-19 mortality impact is essential in order to assess health system performances, control measures, and identify vulnerable populations. Differences in mortality burden among populations will help public health officials in their efforts to minimize the COVID-19 mortality burden on a local, and on a global level.

Key messages

Up to August 2020, COVID-19 was a cause of premature mortality in all the participating countries, with South America and males to be more affected.

The timing of the pandemic, seasonal trends, the control measures enforced, and underlying social conditions are probable explanations for the differences observed among countries.

Excess all-cause mortality from January to August 2020: a temporal analysis in 20 countries

 

Analysis of all-cause mortality is an important tool to investigate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. This study aims to investigate the magnitude and potential determinants of excess all-cause mortality, from January until August 2020, using national mortality databases from 20 countries part of the C-MOR consortium. Excess weekly mortality for 2020 was calculated by comparing observed against expected weekly number of deaths for 2020. Expected 2020 weekly mortality was estimated using 2015-19 data based on a time series model adjusting for time trend and seasonality. The excess mortality was visualized against a stringency index (SI), based on nine government response indicators, downloaded from the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker. Brazil, Cyprus, France, Ireland, Italy, countries of the UK, Spain and the USA showed a substantial increase in the observed mortality during 2020, which lasted from 1 (Cyprus) to 7 (England and Wales, Scotland) weeks. Australia, Denmark and Georgia observed fewer than expected deaths, whereas in Austria, Estonia, Israel, Norway, Slovenia and Ukraine 2020 mortality was as expected. Italy, Spain, UK and Brazil enforced high SI measures at least after 3 weeks from the first COVID-19 death. Sweden and the USA did not apply high SI measures for the duration of this study. In Austria, Estonia, Israel, Norway, Cyprus, Georgia, Slovenia and Ukraine, measures of high SI were implemented within 2 weeks of the first COVID-19 death. The decreased mortality in Australia is probably attributed to different seasonality patterns coupled with strict control measures. Several but not all countries showed excess all-cause mortality. Excess mortality was shown to be influenced by the seasonality patterns of each country, as well as the promptness of governments to apply high SI control measures. As the pandemic continues, the lessons learned from the first months of the pandemic can prove useful to minimize increases in all-cause mortality.

Key messages

Some countries showed excess all-cause mortality between January and August 2020, whereas others displayed either negligible excess mortality or even a decrease in all-cause mortality.

Excess mortality may be partly attributed to delayed application of strict control measures whereas lack of excess mortality may be due to seasonality and/or strict control measures.

Social inequality in obesity in an Eastern Mediterranean population: evidence from a national health survey in Cyprus

Background

We aimed to explore socioeconomic factors associated with obesity among adults and to investigate social inequality in obesity prevalence in Cyprus.

Study design

Cross-sectional study.

Methods

We conducted a survey among 3,021 Greek-Cypriots aged 25-64 years, collecting self-reported demographics, health behaviors, socioeconomic characteristics and anthropometric measurements. We performed univariable and multivariable (adjusting for demographics and health behaviors) sexspecific Poisson's regression with robust variance, reporting adjusted prevalence ratios (PRs) and 95% confidence intervals.

Results

The prevalence of obesity was 22% among males and 17% among females. According to univariable analyses, higher obesity prevalence was associated with increased age, decreased physical activity and decreased alcohol consumption in both genders. In addition, obesity was associated with refugee status and former smoking in males and with a higher healthy diet score in females. There was a clear linear decrease in obesity prevalence each step up the socioeconomic hierarchy in both genders. In the fully adjusted model, a clear inverse gradient in obesity prevalence by educational attainment was observed in females (p=0.002), while, in males, lower obesity prevalence remained significantly associated with the highest level of family-net income and educational attainment (aPR:0.48; 95% CI:0.27-0.84 and aPR:0.46; 95% CI:0.25-0.81, respectively). Occupational social class was not associated with obesity.

Conclusions

TThis study highlights striking social inequalities in obesity in an Eastern Mediterranean population, which only recently moved from rural living to high levels of development. We recommend that public health interventions should address education- and income-related barriers, as a means of tackling health inequalities.

Geographical inequalities in breast cancer incidence, mortality and late stage at diagnosis in Cyprus

Background

A national breast cancer (BC) screening programme, targeting women 50-69 years old, was introduced in Cyprus in 2007. This study aims to assess rural/urban differences in BC incidence, tumour stage at diagnosis (TSD) and mortality, since 2004 and since the introduction of the screening programme.

Methods

Data were obtained for 6589 new cases of BC (diagnosis 2004-2016) from a national population-based cancer registry (1998-today) in Cyprus. TSD was recorded according to the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results categories. We defined late TSD as regional or distant stage. Unknown stages were excluded. We linked cases to the population census data and place of residence (rural/urban) and calculated incidence and mortality rate ratios (RR) by place of residence. We conducted logistic regression to measure the association between place of residence and TSD or mortality, adjusting for sex, age, ethnicity, smoking and marital status. Adjusted odds ratios (aOR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) are reported.

Results

Since 2004, 54.7% of BC cases were diagnosed at localised stage, 40.6% at regional stage and 4.7% at distant stage. Incidence, but not mortality, rate for all BC was higher in urban than in rural areas (RRincidece=1.22;95%CI=1.51-1.28 and RRmortality=1.10;95%CI=0.97-1.24). Rural place of residence was associated with higher odds of late TSD (aOR=1.34; 95%CI=1.15-1.58) and death (aOR=1.36; 95%CI=1.11-1.68). After the introduction of the screening programme, for the targeted age group, rural place of residence was still associated with higher odds of late TSD (aOR=1.31; 95%C= 1.03-1.67), but not with death (p &gt; 0.05).

Conclusions

Even though BC incidence is higher in urban than in rural areas, women residing in rural areas had higher odds of late TSD and death. The introduction of the national BC screening programme only slightly reduced geographical inequalities in TSD. Further studies are needed to understand and reduce the role of inequalities in TSD.

Key messages

Rural/Urban inequalities in TSD are evident among BC cases in Cyprus, diagnosed between 2004 and 2016. The introduction of the national BC screening programme reduced but did not overcome geographical inequalities in TSD.

The exposome and meet-in-the-middle as tools in addressing open questions in air pollution research

Ambient particulate matter is the environmental factor with the highest contribution to global disease burden and mortality. Open questions remain regarding causality at low doses and the effects of specific pollutants. Establishing causality in regards to air pollution is methodologically challenging, affecting the establishment of regulatory policies.

In an effort to address this problem, we suggest combining the concept of the exposome with the Meet-in-the-Middle approach (MITM). This approach consists of measuring molecular fingerprints and relating them retrospectively to measurements of external exposure and prospectively to a health outcome. Markers robustly associated with both ends of the exposure-to-disease continuum, validate a causal hypothesis5. In the context of carcinogenesis, this approach allows establishing the relationship between the middle-to-outcome nature of the hallmarks of cancer with the bottom-to-middle approaches of the key characteristics of carcinogens. We recently demonstrated proof of principle of this approach, by investigating the temporal sequence of hallmarks of cancer from the point of view of pathological specimens of cancer (branched mutational spectra), and then by considering the key characteristics of the carcinogen, benzo(a)pyrene. The main cancer pathways affected follow a generally common sequence: resisting cell death, insensitivity to anti-growth signals, sustained proliferation (almost simultaneous), deregulated energetics, replicative immortality, and activation of invasion and metastasis. Angiogenesis and avoiding immune destruction display a varying position in the above sequence. At the same time, “key characteristics” of BaP were found associated with most hallmarks of cancer, supporting its carcinogenicity.

A MITM approach, using exposomic evidence, is a promising approach that can successfully address causality concerns in regards to air-pollution toxicology and the need for regulatory policies.

Key messages

Investigation of tumour mutational spectra and of the mechanisms of action of a carcinogen, reveals an overlap between the hallmarks of cancer and the key characteristics of the carcinogen. This investigation provides proof of principle that the exposome/meet-in-the-middle approach can address concerns in air-pollution toxicology and provide evidence to support regulatory policies.

Social inequality in obesity in an Eastern Mediterranean population: a national health survey

Background

This study aimed to explore socioeconomic factors associated with obesity in the Republic of Cyprus.

Methods

We interviewed 3021 Greek-Cypriots aged 25-64 years through a multistage survey. We collected self-reported information on demographics, health behaviours (physical activity, smoking, alcohol consumption and dietary intake), socio-economic characteristics (educational attainment, household income and occupational social class) and anthropometric measurements. Obesity was defined as body mass index ≥30 kg/m2. For the association between obesity and each socio-economic indicator, we conducted sex-specific Poisson's regression with robust variance, adjusting for all demographics and health-related behaviours, reporting adjusted prevalence ratios (aPR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI).

Results

The prevalence of obesity was 22% and 17% among men and women, respectively. There was a significant trend of higher obesity prevalence with increasing age as well as with being widowed in both genders and being a refugee in men. Obesity prevalence decreased with increasing educational attainment (postgraduate vs. none/gymnasium: a PRmen=0.45; 95%CI=0.25-0.82; a PRwomen=0.41; 95%CI=0.18-0.95; p-trends&lt;0.005), and household income (&gt;€4000/month vs. ≤€1000/month: a PRmen=0.45; 95%CI=0.26-0.81; a PRwomen=0.45; 95%CI=0.22-0.92; p-trends&lt;0.005). Occupational social class did not show any clear association with obesity. After adjustment for health-behaviours as mediators the association between income and obesity in women was attenuated.

Conclusions

The current study highlights striking social inequalities in obesity among Cypriot men and women, characterised by a linear decrease in obesity prevalence each step up the socioeconomic hierarchy. We recommend that comprehensive and multifaceted public health interventions are considered to address income and education-related barriers resulting in higher obesity rates among specific population sub-groups.

Key messages

Among Greek Cypriot adults, obesity affects almost one in five whilst obesity prevalence shows gender-specific social inequalities. When investigating social inequalities in health, the choice of socioeconomic indicators should reflect the context of the population and gender-specific differences.

Epidemiology of Huntington disease in Cyprus: A 20-year retrospective study

Huntington disease (HD) is most prevalent among populations of western European descent and isolated populations where founder effects may operate. The aim of this study was to examine the epidemiology of HD in Cyprus, an island in southern Europe with extensive western European colonization in the past. All registered HD patients in the Cyprus, since 1994, were included. Detailed pedigrees and clinical information were recorded and maps, showing the geographic distribution of HD, were constructed. Requests for genetic testing were also examined. The project identified 58 clinically manifested cases of HD belonging to 19 families. The 16 families of Cypriot origin were concentrated in a confined geographical cluster in southeast Cyprus. In 2015, prevalence of symptomatic HD was 4.64/100 000 population, while incidence was 0.12/100 000 person-years. Prevalence displayed a marked increase during the past 20 years. Disease characteristics of HD patients were similar to those reported in western European populations. Lastly, the uptake of predictive and/or prenatal testing was limited. HD disease characteristics, incidence and prevalence in Cyprus were comparable to western European populations. Together with the geographical clustering observed, these results support the possibility for a relatively recent founder effect of HD in Cyprus, potentially of western European origin.

Serratia marcescens bacteremia after carotid endarterectomy and coronary artery bypass grafting

Serratia Marcescens is a common, water-borne hospital colonizer. Respiratory secretions, wounds, and urine are frequently recognized areas of Serratia colonization. Serratia bacteremias usually occur nosocomially and are associated with high mortality and morbidity rates. Serratia bacteremias may be primary or secondary from an identifiable source. Hospital-acquired S marcescens bacteremias have no known source in half of the cases. We present a case of nosocomial primary S marcescens bacteremia in a surgical patient successfully treated with levofloxacin.