Development of a system dynamics model for financially sustainable management of municipal watermain networks

This paper develops causal loop diagrams and a system dynamics model for financially sustainable management of urban water distribution networks. The developed causal loop diagrams are a novel contribution in that it illustrates the unique characteristics and feedback loops for financially self-sustaining water distribution networks. The system dynamics model is a mathematical realization of the developed interactions among system variables over time and is comprised of three sectors namely watermains network, consumer, and finance. This is the first known development of a water distribution network system dynamics model. The watermains network sector accounts for the unique characteristics of watermain pipes such as service life, deterioration progression, pipe breaks, and water leakage. The finance sector allows for cash reserving by the utility in addition to the pay-as-you-go and borrowing strategies. The consumer sector includes controls to model water fee growth as a function of service performance and a household's financial burden due to water fees. A series of policy levers are provided that allow the impact of various financing strategies to be evaluated in terms of financial sustainability and household affordability. The model also allows for examination of the impact of different management strategies on the water fee in terms of consistency and stability over time. The paper concludes with a discussion on how the developed system dynamics water model can be used by water utilities to achieve a variety of utility short and long-term objectives and to establish realistic and defensible water utility policies. It also discusses how the model can be used by regulatory bodies, government agencies, the financial industry, and researchers.

Effect of altered surfaces on postural sway characteristics in elderly subjects

Mobility is essentially based on successful balance control. The evaluation of functional strategies for postural stability is requisite for effective balance rehabilitation and fall prevention in elderly subjects. Our objective was to clarify control mechanisms of different standing positions reflecting challenges of typical everyday life situations. For this purpose, elderly subjects stood on different surfaces resulting in a change of the biomechanical constraints. Sway parameters out of time and frequency domain were calculated from center-of-pressure (COP) excursions. Besides the classic quantification of the amount of sway variability, we investigated the temporal organization of postural sway by means of nonlinear time series analysis. Limb load symmetry was quantified via foot pressure insoles. We found task dependent motor outputs: (1) asymmetrical loading in all conditions; (2) altered amount and structure of COP movements with dissimilar changes in medio-lateral and anterior-posterior direction; (3) changes of the motor output affect several time scales especially when standing on a balance board or with one foot on a step. Our results indicate that elderly subjects preferred forcefully one limb which supports a step-initiation strategy. Modifications of the postural sway structure refer to the interaction of multiple control mechanisms to cope with the altered demands. The identification of postural strategies employed in daily activities augments the ecological validity of postural control studies.

Application of system dynamics for developing financially self-sustaining management policies for water and wastewater systems

Recently enacted regulations in Canada and elsewhere require water utilities to be financially self-sustaining over the long-term. This implies full cost recovery for providing water and wastewater services to users. This study proposes a new approach to help water utilities plan to meet the requirements of the new regulations. A causal loop diagram is developed for a financially self-sustaining water utility which frames water and wastewater network management as a complex system with multiple interconnections and feedback loops. The novel System Dynamics approach is used to develop a demonstration model for water and wastewater network management. This is the first known application of System Dynamics to water and wastewater network management. The network simulated is that of a typical Canadian water utility that has under invested in maintenance. Model results show that with no proactive rehabilitation strategy the utility will need to substantially increase its user fees to achieve financial sustainability. This increase is further exacerbated when price elasticity of water demand is considered. When the utility pursues proactive rehabilitation, financial sustainability is achieved with lower user fees. Having demonstrated the significance of feedback loops for financial management of water and wastewater networks, the paper makes the case for a more complete utility model that considers the complexity of the system by incorporating all feedback loops.