Cardiovascular Risk Stratification of Patients Undergoing Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation: The CARE-BMT Risk Score

BACKGROUND

Evidence guiding the pre-hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) cardiovascular evaluation is limited. We sought to derive and validate a pre-HSCT score for the cardiovascular risk stratification of HSCT candidates.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We leveraged the CARE-BMT (Cardiovascular Registry in Bone Marrow Transplantation) study, a contemporary multicenter observational study of adult patients who underwent autologous or allogeneic HSCT between 2008 and 2019 (N=2435; mean age at transplant of 55 years; 4.9% Black). We identified the subset of variables most predictive of post-HSCT cardiovascular events, defined as a composite of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, heart failure, stroke, atrial fibrillation or flutter, and sustained ventricular tachycardia. We then developed a point-based risk score using the hazard ratios obtained from Cox proportional hazards modeling. The score was externally validated in a separate cohort of 919 HSCT recipients (mean age at transplant 54 years; 20.4% Black). The risk score included age, transplant type, race, coronary artery disease, heart failure, peripheral artery disease, creatinine, triglycerides, and prior anthracycline dose. Risk scores were grouped as low-, intermediate-, and high-risk, with the 5-year cumulative incidence of cardiovascular events being 4.0%, 10.3%, and 22.4%, respectively. The area under the receiver operating curves for predicting cardiovascular events at 100 days, 5 and 10 years post-HSCT were 0.65 (95% CI, 0.59-0.70), 0.73 (95% CI, 0.69-0.76), and 0.76 (95% CI, 0.69-0.81), respectively. The model performed equally well in autologous and allogeneic recipients, as well as in the validation cohort.

CONCLUSIONS

The CARE-BMT risk score is easy to calculate and could help guide referrals of high-risk HSCT recipients to cardiovascular specialists before transplant and guide long-term monitoring.

Cardiovascular Events After Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplant: Incidence and Risk Factors

Background

Hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) is associated with various cardiovascular (CV) complications.

Objectives

We sought to characterize the incidence and risk factors for short-term and long-term CV events in a contemporary cohort of adult HSCT recipients.

Methods

We conducted a multicenter observational study of adult patients who underwent autologous or allogeneic HSCT between 2008 and 2019. Data on demographics, clinical characteristics, conditioning regimen, and CV outcomes were collected through chart review. CV outcomes were a composite of CV death, myocardial infarction, heart failure, atrial fibrillation/flutter, stroke, and sustained ventricular tachycardia and were classified as short-term (≤100 days post-HSCT) or long-term (>100 days post-HSCT).

Results

In 3,354 patients (mean age 55 years; 40.9% female; 30.1% Black) followed for a median time of 2.3 years (Q1-Q3: 1.0-5.4 years), the 100-day and 5-year cumulative incidences of CV events were 4.1% and 13.9%, respectively. Atrial fibrillation/flutter was the most common short- and long-term CV event, with a 100-day incidence of 2.6% and a 5-year incidence of 6.8% followed by heart failure (1.1% at 100 days and 5.4% at 5 years). Allogeneic recipients had a higher incidence of long-term CV events compared to autologous recipients (5-year incidence 16.4% vs 12.1%; P = 0.002). Baseline CV comorbidities were associated with a higher risk of long-term CV events.

Conclusions

The incidence of short-term CV events in HSCT recipients is relatively low. Long-term events were more common among allogeneic recipients and those with pre-existing CV comorbidities.

Myocardial Contraction Fraction Predicts Cardiovascular Events in Patients With Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy and Normal Ejection Fraction

BACKGROUND

Myocardial contraction fraction (MCF), the ratio of left ventricular stroke volume to myocardial volume, is a novel parameter that can distinguish between pathologic and physiologic hypertrophy. However, its prognostic value in hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) has never been examined. The objective was to determine if MCF is associated with functional capacity and predicts adverse cardiovascular outcomes in patients with HCM and normal left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF).

METHODS AND RESULTS

We conducted a prospective cohort study of 137 patients with HCM and LVEF ≥55%. Patients were followed for 2.7 ± 2.5 years. We examined association of MCF with New York Heart Association (NYHA) functional class and a composite outcome of embolic stroke, heart transplantation, and cardiac death. We performed time-to-event analysis with the use of Cox proportional hazards modeling and stepwise elimination. The average age was 52 ± 18 years. The average MCF was 26 ± 11%. MCF was inversely correlated with NYHA functional class (P = .001). A total of 20 subjects experienced an outcome event with an event rate of 5.6% per patient-year. MCF independently predicted the outcome (adjusted hazard ratio 0.50 per 10% increase, 95% confidence interval 0.28-0.90, adjusted P = .02).

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with HCM and normal LVEF, MCF is associated with functional capacity and independently predicts adverse cardiovascular outcomes.

International External Validation Study of the 2014 European Society of Cardiology Guidelines on Sudden Cardiac Death Prevention in Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy (EVIDENCE-HCM)

Background:

Identification of people with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) who are at risk of sudden cardiac death (SCD) and require a prophylactic implantable cardioverter defibrillator is challenging. In 2014, the European Society of Cardiology proposed a new risk stratification method based on a risk prediction model (HCM Risk-SCD) that estimates the 5-year risk of SCD. The aim was to externally validate the 2014 European Society of Cardiology recommendations in a geographically diverse cohort of patients recruited from the United States, Europe, the Middle East, and Asia.

Methods:

This was an observational, retrospective, longitudinal cohort study.

Results:

The cohort consisted of 3703 patients. Seventy three (2%) patients reached the SCD end point within 5 years of follow-up (5-year incidence, 2.4% [95% confidence interval {CI}, 1.9–3.0]). The validation study revealed a calibration slope of 1.02 (95% CI, 0.93–1.12), C-index of 0.70 (95% CI, 0.68–0.72), and D-statistic of 1.17 (95% CI, 1.05–1.29). In a complete case analysis (n= 2147; 44 SCD end points at 5 years), patients with a predicted 5-year risk of <4% (n=1524; 71%) had an observed 5-year SCD incidence of 1.4% (95% CI, 0.8–2.2); patients with a predicted risk of ≥6% (n=297; 14%) had an observed SCD incidence of 8.9% (95% CI, 5.96–13.1) at 5 years. For every 13 (297/23) implantable cardioverter defibrillator implantations in patients with an estimated 5-year SCD risk ≥6%, 1 patient can potentially be saved from SCD.

Conclusions:

This study confirms that the HCM Risk-SCD model provides accurate prognostic information that can be used to target implantable cardioverter defibrillator therapy in patients at the highest risk of SCD.