Using a novel 'difference-in-differences' method and syndromic surveillance to estimate the change in local healthcare utilisation during periods of media reporting in the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic in England

OBJECTIVES

Syndromic surveillance supplements traditional laboratory reporting for infectious diseases monitoring. Prior to widespread COVID-19 community surveillance, syndromic surveillance was one of several systems providing real-time information on changes in healthcare-seeking behaviour. The study objective was to identify changes in healthcare utilisation during periods of high local media reporting in England using 'difference-in-differences' (DiD).

STUDY DESIGN

A retrospective observational study was conducted using five media events in January-February 2020 in England on four routinely monitored syndromic surveillance indicators.

METHODS

Dates 'exposed' to a media event were estimated using Google Trends internet search intensity data (terms = 'coronavirus' and local authority [LA]). We constructed a negative-binomial regression model for each indicator and event time period to estimate a direct effect.

RESULTS

We estimated a four-fold increase in telehealth 'cough' calls and a 1.4-fold increase in emergency department (ED) attendances for acute respiratory illness in Brighton and Hove, when a so-called 'superspreading event' in this location was reported in local and national media. Significant decreases were observed in the Buxton (telehealth and ED attendance) and Wirral (ED attendance) areas during media reports of a returnee from an outbreak abroad and a quarantine site opening in the area respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

We used a novel approach to directly estimate changes in syndromic surveillance reporting during the early phase of the COVID-19 pandemic in England, providing contextual information on the interpretation of changes in health indicators. With careful consideration of event timings, DiD is useful in producing real-time estimates on specific indicators for informing public health action.

Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC) O157 outbreak associated with likely transmission in an inflatable home paddling pool in England, June 2017

In June 2017, an outbreak of Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC) O157 infection with phage type 21/28 and identical genotypic profiles involving three children from Staffordshire was reported. Two cases developed haemolytic uraemic syndrome (HUS). Person-to-person transmission via a shared inflatable home paddling pool was the most likely route of infection, following contamination by the first case. The source of infection in the first case was not identified. We recommend that individuals experiencing gastroenteritis should not bathe in paddling pools and that water should be changed at frequent intervals throughout the day to minimise the spread of infection.