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Meng HR, Zhao QL, Huang B, Xiao JP, Liu T, Zhu ZH, Gong DX, Wan DH, Huang CR, Ma WJ. [The association between apparent temperature and hand, foot, and mouth disease and its spatial heterogeneity in Guangdong, Anhui and Jilin provinces]. Zhonghua Liu Xing Bing Xue Za Zhi 2021; 42:520-526. [PMID: 34814423 DOI: 10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20200423-00634] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
Objective: To study the association between apparent temperature (AT) and the incidence of hand,foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) and its spatial heterogeneity in 46 cities in Guangdong, Anhui and Jilin provinces, and provide scientific evidence for the early warning of HFMD. Methods: The data of HFMD incidence and meteorological factors from 2009 to 2018 in Guangdong province, 2009 to 2015 in Anhui province, and 2013 to 2018 in Jilin province were collected. Distributed lag non-linear models were constructed to investigate the association between AT and the incidence of HFMD in 46 cities from three provinces in China. Meta-analysis was used to pool the city-specific estimates, and Meta-regression was applied to analyze the factors that may cause spatial heterogeneity. Results: The relationship between daily AT and the incidence of HFMD in 46 cities appeared nonlinear. The association in Guangdong was similar to that in Jilin, and the risk of HFMD increased with the increase of AT. While the risk of HFMD in Anhui first increased with the increase of AT, and peaked at 18.1 ℃ and then went down. AT on different levels showed different lag impacts and the higher AT showed greater and longer lag impact. The spatial heterogeneity of associations may have been caused by latitude, longitude, average temperature, and average sunshine hours. Conclusions: AT is a comprehensive index to evaluate the association between temperature, relative humidity and wind speed and the incidence of HFMD. Higher AT may increase the risk of HFMD. The AT and HFMD relationship across spatial heterogeneity varies depending on geographic location and meteorological conditions.
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Affiliation(s)
- H R Meng
- School of Public Health, Southern Medical University,Guangzhou 510515,China Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China
| | - Q L Zhao
- Jilin Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Changchun 130062, China
| | - B Huang
- Jilin Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Changchun 130062, China
| | - J P Xiao
- Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China
| | - T Liu
- Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China
| | - Z H Zhu
- Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China
| | - D X Gong
- Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China
| | - D H Wan
- Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China
| | - C R Huang
- School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China
| | - W J Ma
- School of Public Health, Southern Medical University,Guangzhou 510515,China Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China
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Hu JX, He GH, Liu T, Xiao JP, Rong ZH, Guo LC, Zeng WL, Zhu ZH, Gong DX, Yin LH, Wan DH, Zeng LL, Ma WJ. [Risk assessment of exported risk of COVID-19 from Hubei Province]. Zhonghua Yu Fang Yi Xue Za Zhi 2020; 54:362-366. [PMID: 32083409 DOI: 10.3760/cma.j.cn112150-20200219-00142] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/05/2022]
Abstract
Objective: To evaluate the exported risk of COVID-19 from Hubei Province and the imported risk in various provinces across China. Methods: Data of reported COVID-19 cases and Baidu Migration Indexin all provinces of the country as of February 14, 2020 were collected. The correlation analysis between cumulative number of reported cases and the migration index from Hubei was performed, and the imported risks from Hubei to different provinces across China were further evaluated. Results: A total of 49 970 confirmed cases were reported nationwide, of which 37 884 were in Hubei Province. The average daily migration index from Hubei to other provinces was 312.09, Wuhan and other cities in Hubei were 117.95 and 194.16, respectively. The cumulative COVID-19 cases of provinces was positively correlated with the migration index derived from Hubei Province, also in Wuhan and other cities in Hubei, with correlation coefficients of 0.84, 0.84, and 0.81. In linear model, population migration from Hubei Province, Wuhan and other cities in Hubei account for 71.2%, 70.1%, and 66.3% of the variation, respectively. The period of high exported risk from Hubei occurred before January 27, of which the risks before January 23 mainly came from Wuhan, and then mainly from other cities in Hubei. Hunan Province, Henan Province and Guangdong Province ranked the top three in terms of cumulative imported risk (the cumulative risk indices were 58.61, 54.75 and 49.62 respectively). Conclusion: The epidemic in each province was mainly caused by the importation of Hubei Province. Taking measures such as restricting the migration of population in Hubei Province and strengthening quarantine measures for immigrants from Hubei Province may greatly reduce the risk of continued spread of the epidemic.
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Affiliation(s)
- J X Hu
- Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China
| | - G H He
- Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China
| | - T Liu
- Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China
| | - J P Xiao
- Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China
| | - Z H Rong
- Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China
| | - L C Guo
- Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China
| | - W L Zeng
- Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China
| | - Z H Zhu
- Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China
| | - D X Gong
- Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China
| | - L H Yin
- Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China
| | - D H Wan
- Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China
| | - L L Zeng
- Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China
| | - W J Ma
- Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China
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