The COVID-19 pandemic and the future of telecommuting in the United States

This study focuses on an important transport-related long-term effect of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States: an increase in telecommuting. Analyzing a nationally representative panel survey of adults, we find that 40-50% of workers expect to telecommute at least a few times per month post-pandemic, up from 24% pre-COVID. If given the option, 90-95% of those who first telecommuted during the pandemic plan to continue the practice regularly. We also find that new telecommuters are demographically similar to pre-COVID telecommuters. Both pre- and post-COVID, higher educational attainment and income, together with certain job categories, largely determine whether workers have the option to telecommute. Despite growth in telecommuting, approximately half of workers expect to remain unable to telecommute and between 2/3 and 3/4 of workers expect their post-pandemic telecommuting patterns to be unchanged from their pre-COVID patterns. This limits the contribution telecommuting can make to reducing peak hour transport demand.

The Long-Term effects of COVID-19 on travel behavior in the United States: A panel study on work from home, mode choice, online shopping, and air travel

A critical challenge facing transportation planners is to identify the type and the extent of changes in people's activity-travel behavior in the post-Covid-19 pandemic world. In this study, we investigate the travel behavior evolution by analyzing a longitudinal two-wave panel survey data conducted in the United States from April 2020 to May 2021. Encompassing nearly 3,000 respondents across different states, we explored the effects of the pandemic on four major categories of work from home, travel mode choice, online shopping, and air travel. We utilized descriptive and econometric measures, including random effects ordered probit models, to shed light on the pandemic-induced changes and the underlying factors affecting the future of mobility in the post-pandemic world. Upon concrete evidence, our findings substantiate significant observed (i.e., during the pandemic) and expected (i.e., after the pandemic) changes in people's habits and preferences. According to our results, 48% of the respondents anticipate having the option to WFH after the pandemic, which indicates an approximately 30% increase compared to the pre-pandemic period. In the post-pandemic period, auto and transit commuters are expected to be 9% and 31% less than pre-pandemic, respectively. A considerable rise in hybrid work and grocery online shopping is expected. Moreover, 41% of pre-covid business travelers expect to have fewer flights (after the pandemic) while only 8% anticipate more, compared to the pre-pandemic.

Subjective variables in travel behavior models: a critical review and Standardized Transport Attitude Measurement Protocol (STAMP)

Understanding people's travel behavior is necessary for achieving goals such as increased bicycling and walking, decreased traffic congestion, and adoption of clean-fuel vehicles. To understand underlying motivations, researchers increasingly are adding subjective variables to models of travel behavior. This article presents a systematic review of 158 such studies. Nearly every reviewed article finds subjective variables to be predictive of transport outcomes. However, the 158 reviewed studies include 2864 distinct subjective survey questions. This heterogeneity makes it difficult to reach definitive conclusions about which subjective variables are most important for which transport outcomes. In addition to heterogeneity, challenges of this literature also include an unclear direction of causality and tautological relationships between some subjective variables and behavior. Within the constraints imposed by these challenges, we attempt to evaluate the explanatory power of subjective variables, which subjective variables matter most for which transport choices, and whether the answers to these questions vary between continents. To reduce heterogeneity in future studies, we introduce the Standardized Transport Attitude Measurement Protocol, which identifies a curated set of subjective questions. We have also developed an open-access database of the reviewed studies, including all subjective survey questions and models, with an interactive, searchable interface.

A database of travel-related behaviors and attitudes before, during, and after COVID-19 in the United States

The COVID-19 pandemic has impacted billions of people around the world. To capture some of these impacts in the United States, we are conducting a nationwide longitudinal survey collecting information about activity and travel-related behaviors and attitudes before, during, and after the COVID-19 pandemic. The survey questions cover a wide range of topics including commuting, daily travel, air travel, working from home, online learning, shopping, and risk perception, along with attitudinal, socioeconomic, and demographic information. The survey is deployed over multiple waves to the same respondents to monitor how behaviors and attitudes evolve over time. Version 1.0 of the survey contains 8,723 responses that are publicly available. This article details the methodology adopted for the collection, cleaning, and processing of the data. In addition, the data are weighted to be representative of national and regional demographics. This survey dataset can aid researchers, policymakers, businesses, and government agencies in understanding both the extent of behavioral shifts and the likelihood that changes in behaviors will persist after COVID-19.

The potential stickiness of pandemic-induced behavior changes in the United States

Human behavior is notoriously difficult to change, but a disruption of the magnitude of the COVID-19 pandemic has the potential to bring about long-term behavioral changes. During the pandemic, people have been forced to experience new ways of interacting, working, learning, shopping, traveling, and eating meals. A critical question going forward is how these experiences have actually changed preferences and habits in ways that might persist after the pandemic ends. Many observers have suggested theories about what the future will bring, but concrete evidence has been lacking. We present evidence on how much US adults expect their own postpandemic choices to differ from their prepandemic lifestyles in the areas of telecommuting, restaurant patronage, air travel, online shopping, transit use, car commuting, uptake of walking and biking, and home location. The analysis is based on a nationally representative survey dataset collected between July and October 2020. Key findings include that the "new normal" will feature a doubling of telecommuting, reduced air travel, and improved quality of life for some.

Determinants of pedestrian and bicyclist crash severity by party at fault in San Francisco, CA

Pedestrian and bicyclist safety is of growing concern, especially given the increasing numbers of urban residents choosing to walk and bike. Sharing the roads with automobiles, these road users are particularly vulnerable. An intuitive conceptual model is proposed of the determinants of injury severity in crashes between vehicles and nonmotorized road users. Using 10 years of crash data from San Francisco, CA, we estimate logistic regression models to illuminate key determinants of crash severity for both pedestrian and bicyclist collisions. The analyses are separated by party at fault to test the novel hypothesis that environmental factors affecting driver speed and reaction time may be especially important when the driver is not at fault. Pedestrian results are broadly consistent with prior research, and offer considerable support for this hypothesis. The strongest predictors of injury severity include pedestrian advanced age, driver sobriety, vehicle type, and a set of variables that help determine driver speed and reaction time. Bicyclist results were weaker overall, and the distinction by party at fault was less important.