A glimpse into the future: modelling global prevalence of hypertension

BACKGROUND

Hypertension is a major risk factor for cardiovascular diseases. Insights and foresights on trends of hypertension prevalence are crucial to informing health policymaking. We examined and projected the patterns of hypertension prevalence among sexes.

METHODS

Using annual hypertension prevalence (18 + years) data sourced from WHO Global Health Observatory data repository from 1975 to 2015, Prophet models were developed to forecast the 2040 prevalence of hypertension in males, females, and both sexes. We used k-means clustering and self-organising maps to determine the clusters of hypertension prevalence concerning both sexes among 176 countries.

RESULTS

Worldwide, Croatia is estimated to have the highest prevalence of hypertension in males by 2040, while that of females is in Niger. Among the world's most populated countries, Pakistan and India are likely to increase by 7.7% and 4.0% respectively in both sexes. South-East Asia is projected to experience the largest hypertension prevalence in males, whereas Africa is estimated to have the highest prevalence of hypertension in females. Low-income countries are projected to have the highest prevalence of hypertension in both sexes. By 2040, the prevalence of hypertension worldwide is expected to be higher in the male population than in female. Globally, the prevalence of hypertension is projected to decrease from 22.1% in 2015 to 20.3% (20.2 - 20.4%) in 2040. We also identified three patterns of hypertension prevalence in 2040, cluster one countries are estimated to have the highest prevalence of hypertension in males (29.6%, 22.2 - 41.1%) and females (29.6%, 19.4 - 38.7%).

CONCLUSION

These findings emphasise the need for new and effective approaches toward the prevention and control of hypertension in Africa, South-East Asia, and Low-income countries.

Sorption of PFOS in 114 Well-Characterized Tropical and Temperate Soils: Application of Multivariate and Artificial Neural Network Analyses

The influence of soil properties on PFOS sorption are not fully understood, particularly for variable charge soils. PFOS batch sorption isotherms were conducted for 114 temperate and tropical soils from Australia and Fiji, that were well-characterized for their soil properties, including total organic carbon (TOC), anion exchange capacity, and surface charge. In most soils, PFOS sorption isotherms were nonlinear. PFOS sorption distribution coefficients (K_d) ranged from 5 to 229 mL/g (median: 28 mL/g), with 63% of the Fijian soils and 35% of the Australian soils showing K_d values that exceeded the observed median K_d. Multiple linear regression showed that TOC, amorphous aluminum and iron oxides contents, anion exchange capacity, pH, and silt content, jointly explained about 53% of the variance in PFOS K_d in soils. Variable charge soils with net positive surface charges, and moderate to elevated TOC content, generally displayed enhanced PFOS sorption than in temperate or tropical soils with TOC as the only sorbent phase, especially at acidic pH ranges. For the first time, two artificial neural networks were developed to predict the measured PFOS K_d (R² = 0.80) in the soils. Overall, both TOC and surface charge characteristics of soils are important for describing PFOS sorption.

Beyond 2020: Modelling obesity and diabetes prevalence

AIMS

To examine and forecast the patterns of diabetes prevalence in synergy with obesity.

METHODS

Prophet models were employed to forecast the prevalence of diabetes and obesity in 2030 using time-series data from the WHO Global Health Observatory data repository. K-means clustering models and self-organising maps were used to identify the patterns (clusters) of diabetes prevalence in association with obesity among 183 countries.

RESULTS

Three patterns of diabetes prevalence were identified, countries in cluster three were estimated to have the highest obesity (44.9%, 26.2-65.8%) and diabetes prevalence (25.3%, 18.3-32.6%) in 2030. By 2030, countries in the Eastern Mediterranean and Upper-middle-income are projected to have the highest prevalence of diabetes. Overall, Niue is likely to have the biggest impact of diabetes. Liberia is projected to experience the largest rise in the prevalence of diabetes, with over 100% growth from 2014 to 2030. Libya, Kuwait, UK, USA, Argentina, and Nauru are estimated to have the peak prevalence of obesity on their respective continents. There is no decline in the influence of obesity in 185 countries by 2030. Globally, the prevalence of diabetes is projected to increase in 2030.

CONCLUSION

These estimates of diabetes prevalence in adults confirm continuity in the "diabetes crisis".