Oil and gas platforms degrade benthic invertebrate diversity and food web structure

Oil and gas exploitation introduces toxic contaminants such as hydrocarbons and heavy metals to the surrounding sediment, resulting in deleterious impacts on marine benthic communities. This study combines benthic monitoring data over a 30-year period in the North Sea with dietary information on >1400 taxa to quantify the effects of active oil and gas platforms on benthic food webs using a multiple before-after control-impact experiment. Contamination from oil and gas platforms caused declines in benthic food web complexity, community abundance, and biodiversity. Fewer trophic interactions and increased connectance indicated that the community became dominated by generalists adapting to alternative resources, leading to simpler but more connected food webs in contaminated environments. Decreased mean body mass, shorter food chains, and the dominance of small detritivores such as Capitella capitata near to structures suggested a disproportionate loss of larger organisms from higher trophic levels. These patterns were associated with concentrations of hydrocarbons and heavy metals that exceed OSPAR's guideline thresholds of sediment toxicity. This study provides new evidence to better quantify and manage the environmental consequences of oil and gas exploitation at sea.

Temperature alters the predator-prey size relationships and size-selectivity of Southern Ocean fish

A primary response of many marine ectotherms to warming is a reduction in body size, to lower the metabolic costs associated with higher temperatures. The impact of such changes on ecosystem dynamics and stability will depend on the resulting changes to community size-structure, but few studies have investigated how temperature affects the relative size of predators and their prey in natural systems. We utilise >3700 prey size measurements from ten Southern Ocean lanternfish species sampled across >10° of latitude to investigate how temperature influences predator-prey size relationships and size-selective feeding. As temperature increased, we show that predators became closer in size to their prey, which was primarily associated with a decline in predator size and an increase in the relative abundance of intermediate-sized prey. The potential implications of these changes include reduced top-down control of prey populations and a reduction in the diversity of predator-prey interactions. Both of these factors could reduce the stability of community dynamics and ecosystem resistance to perturbations under ocean warming.

Regional impacts of warming on biodiversity and biomass in high latitude stream ecosystems across the Northern Hemisphere

Warming can have profound impacts on ecological communities. However, explorations of how differences in biogeography and productivity might reshape the effect of warming have been limited to theoretical or proxy-based approaches: for instance, studies of latitudinal temperature gradients are often conflated with other drivers (e.g., species richness). Here, we overcome these limitations by using local geothermal temperature gradients across multiple high-latitude stream ecosystems. Each suite of streams (6-11 warmed by 1-15°C above ambient) is set within one of five regions (37 streams total); because the heating comes from the bedrock and is not confounded by changes in chemistry, we can isolate the effect of temperature. We found a negative overall relationship between diatom and invertebrate species richness and temperature, but the strength of the relationship varied regionally, declining more strongly in regions with low terrestrial productivity. Total invertebrate biomass increased with temperature in all regions. The latter pattern combined with the former suggests that the increased biomass of tolerant species might compensate for the loss of sensitive species. Our results show that the impact of warming can be dependent on regional conditions, demonstrating that local variation should be included in future climate projections rather than simply assuming universal relationships.

Quantitative description of six fish species' gut contents and prey abundances in the Baltic Sea (1968-1978)

The dataset presents a compilation of stomach contents from six demersal fish species from two functional groups inhabiting the Baltic Sea. It includes detailed information on prey identities, body masses, and biomasses recovered from both the fish's digestive systems and their surrounding environment. Environmental parameters, such as salinity and temperature levels, have been integrated to enrich this dataset. The juxtaposition of information on prey found in stomachs and in the environment provides an opportunity to quantify trophic interactions across different environmental contexts and investigate how fish foraging behaviour adapts to changes in their environment, such as an increase in temperature. The compilation of body mass and taxonomic information for all species allows approaching these new questions using either a taxonomic (based on species identity) or functional trait (based on body mass) approach.

Chronic exposure to environmental temperature attenuates the thermal sensitivity of salmonids

Metabolism, the biological processing of energy and materials, scales predictably with temperature and body size. Temperature effects on metabolism are normally studied via acute exposures, which overlooks the capacity for organisms to moderate their metabolism following chronic exposure to warming. Here, we conduct respirometry assays in situ and after transplanting salmonid fish among different streams to disentangle the effects of chronic and acute thermal exposure. We find a clear temperature dependence of metabolism for the transplants, but not the in-situ assays, indicating that chronic exposure to warming can attenuate salmonid thermal sensitivity. A bioenergetic model accurately captures the presence of fish in warmer streams when accounting for chronic exposure, whereas it incorrectly predicts their local extinction with warming when incorporating the acute temperature dependence of metabolism. This highlights the need to incorporate the potential for thermal acclimation or adaptation when forecasting the consequences of global warming on ecosystems.

Warming indirectly simplifies food webs through effects on apex predators

Warming alters ecosystems through direct physiological effects on organisms and indirect effects via biotic interactions, but their relative impacts in the wild are unknown due to the difficulty in warming natural environments. Here we bridge this gap by embedding manipulative field experiments within a natural stream temperature gradient to test whether warming and apex fish predators have interactive effects on freshwater ecosystems. Fish exerted cascading effects on algal production and microbial decomposition via both green and brown pathways in the food web, but only under warming. Neither temperature nor the presence of fish altered food web structure alone, but connectance and mean trophic level declined as consumer species were lost when both drivers acted together. A mechanistic model indicates that this temperature-induced trophic cascade is determined primarily by altered interactions, which cautions against extrapolating the impacts of warming from reductionist approaches that do not consider the wider food web.

Machine learning ecological networks

Deep-learning tools can help to construct historical, modern-day, and future food webs.

Metabolic plasticity can amplify ecosystem responses to global warming

Organisms have the capacity to alter their physiological response to warming through acclimation or adaptation, but the consequence of this metabolic plasticity for energy flow through food webs is currently unknown, and a generalisable framework does not exist for modelling its ecosystem-level effects. Here, using temperature-controlled experiments on stream invertebrates from a natural thermal gradient, we show that the ability of organisms to raise their metabolic rate following chronic exposure to warming decreases with increasing body size. Chronic exposure to higher temperatures also increases the acute thermal sensitivity of whole-organismal metabolic rate, independent of body size. A mathematical model parameterised with these findings shows that metabolic plasticity could account for 60% higher ecosystem energy flux with just +2 °C of warming than a traditional model based on ecological metabolic theory. This could explain why long-term warming amplifies ecosystem respiration rates through time in recent mesocosm experiments, and highlights the need to embed metabolic plasticity in predictive models of global warming impacts on ecosystems.

Organisms can alter their physiological response to warming. Here, the authors show that the ability to raise metabolic rate following exposure to warming is inverse to body size and provide a mathematical model which estimates that metabolic plasticity could amplify energy flux through ecosystems in response to warming.

Thermal acclimation increases the stability of a predator-prey interaction in warmer environments

Global warming over the next century is likely to alter the energy demands of consumers and thus the strengths of their interactions with their resources. The subsequent cascading effects on population biomasses could have profound effects on food web stability. One key mechanism by which organisms can cope with a changing environment is phenotypic plasticity, such as acclimation to warmer conditions through reversible changes in their physiology. Here, we measured metabolic rates and functional responses in laboratory experiments for a widespread predator-prey pair of freshwater invertebrates, sampled from across a natural stream temperature gradient in Iceland (4-18℃). This enabled us to parameterize a Rosenzweig-MacArthur population dynamical model to study the effect of thermal acclimation on the persistence of the predator-prey pairs in response to warming. Acclimation to higher temperatures either had neutral effects or reduced the thermal sensitivity of both metabolic and feeding rates for the predator, increasing its energetic efficiency. This resulted in greater stability of population dynamics, as acclimation to higher temperatures increased the biomass of both predator and prey populations with warming. These findings indicate that phenotypic plasticity can act as a buffer against the impacts of environmental warming. As a consequence, predator-prey interactions between ectotherms may be less sensitive to future warming than previously expected, but this requires further investigation across a broader range of interacting species.

The ecological impacts of multiple environmental stressors on coastal biofilm bacteria

Ecological communities are increasingly exposed to multiple interacting stressors. For example, warming directly affects the physiology of organisms, eutrophication stimulates the base of the food web, and harvesting larger organisms for human consumption dampens top-down control. These stressors often combine in the natural environment with unpredictable results. Bacterial communities in coastal ecosystems underpin marine food webs and provide many important ecosystem services (e.g. nutrient cycling and carbon fixation). Yet, how microbial communities will respond to a changing climate remains uncertain. Thus, we used marine mesocosms to examine the impacts of warming, nutrient enrichment, and altered top-predator population size structure (common shore crab) on coastal microbial biofilm communities in a crossed experimental design. Warming increased bacterial α-diversity (18% increase in species richness and 67% increase in evenness), but this was countered by a decrease in α-diversity with nutrient enrichment (14% and 21% decrease for species richness and evenness, respectively). Thus, we show some effects of these stressors could cancel each other out under climate change scenarios. Warming and top-predator population size structure both affected bacterial biofilm community composition, with warming increasing the abundance of bacteria capable of increased mineralization of dissolved and particulate organic matter, such as Flavobacteriia, Sphingobacteriia, and Cytophagia. However, the community shifts observed with warming depended on top-predator population size structure, with Sphingobacteriia increasing with smaller crabs and Cytophagia increasing with larger crabs. These changes could alter the balance between mineralization and carbon sequestration in coastal ecosystems, leading to a positive feedback loop between warming and CO₂ production. Our results highlight the potential for warming to disrupt microbial communities and biogeochemical cycling in coastal ecosystems, and the importance of studying these effects in combination with other environmental stressors.

Temperature effects on the temporal dynamics of a subarctic invertebrate community

Climate warming is predicted to have major impacts on the structure of terrestrial communities, particularly in high latitude ecosystems where growing seasons are short. Higher temperatures may dampen seasonal dynamics in community composition as a consequence of earlier snowmelt, with potentially cascading effects across all levels of biological organisation. Here, we examined changes in community assembly and structure along a natural soil temperature gradient in the Hengill geothermal valley, Iceland, during the summer of 2015. Sample collection over several time points within a season allowed us to assess whether temperature alters temporal variance in terrestrial communities and compositional turnover. We found that seasonal fluctuations in species richness, diversity and evenness were dampened as soil temperature increased, whereas invertebrate biomass varied more. Body mass was found to be a good predictor of species occurrence, with smaller species found at higher soil temperatures and emerging earlier in the season. Our results provide more in-depth understanding of the temporal nature of community and population-level responses to temperature, and indicate that climate warming will likely dampen the seasonal turnover of community structure that is characteristic of high latitude invertebrate communities.

Multitrophic diversity sustains ecological complexity by dampening top-down control of a shallow marine benthic food web

Biodiversity is typically considered as a one-dimensional metric (e.g., species richness), yet the consequences of species loss may be different depending on where extinctions occur in the food web. Here, I used a manipulative field experiment in a temperate subtidal marine system to explore the implications of diversity loss at multiple trophic levels for ecosystem functioning and food web structure. The four manipulated predators included the small painted goby and common prawn, which are also fed on by the larger black goby and shore crab. Antagonistic interactions between the manipulated predators (e.g., intraguild predation, intimidation, interference competition) limited their negative effects on the rest of the food web. Top-down control was so suppressed at the highest level of multitrophic diversity that the resulting food webs were as complex and productive as those containing no manipulated predators. Negative interactions between the predators weakened as multitrophic diversity decreased, however, resulting in stronger consumption of lower trophic levels and a simpler food web with lower rates of two key ecosystem processes: primary production and decomposition. These results show how indirect interactions between predators on multiple trophic levels help to promote the complexity and functioning of natural systems.

Interactive effects of warming and microplastics on metabolism but not feeding rates of a key freshwater detritivore

Microplastics are an emerging pollutant of high concern, with their prevalence in the environment linked to adverse impacts on aquatic organisms. However, our knowledge of these impacts on freshwater species is rudimentary, and there is almost no research directly testing how these effects can change under ongoing and future climate warming. Given the potential for multiple stressors to interact in nature, research on the combined impacts of microplastics and environmental temperature requires urgent attention. Thus, we experimentally manipulated environmentally realistic concentrations of microplastics and temperature to partition their independent and combined impacts on metabolic and feeding rates of a model freshwater detritivore. There was a significant increase in metabolic and feeding rates with increasing body mass and temperature, in line with metabolic and foraging theory. Experimental warming altered the effect of microplastics on metabolic rate, which increased with microplastic concentration at the lowest temperature, but decreased at the higher temperatures. The microplastics had no effect on the amount of litter consumed by the detritivores, therefore, did not result in altered feeding rates. These results show that the metabolism of important freshwater detritivores could be altered by short-term exposure to microplastics, with greater inhibition of metabolic rates at higher temperatures. The consequences of these metabolic changes may take longer to manifest than the duration of our experiments, requiring further investigation. Our results suggest little short-term impact of microplastics on litter breakdown by gammarid amphipods and highlight the importance of environmental context for a better understanding of microplastic pollution in freshwater ecosystems.

Consistent temperature dependence of functional response parameters and their use in predicting population abundance

Global warming is one of the greatest threats to the persistence of populations: increased metabolic demands should strengthen pairwise species interactions, which could destabilize food webs at the higher organizational levels. Quantifying the temperature dependence of consumer-resource interactions is thus essential for predicting ecological responses to warming. We explored feeding interactions between different predator-prey pairs in controlled-temperature chambers and in a system of naturally heated streams. We found consistent temperature dependence of attack rates across experimental settings, though the magnitude and activation energy of attack rate were specific to each predator, which varied in mobility and foraging mode. We used these parameters along with metabolic rate measurements to estimate energetic efficiency and population abundance with warming. Energetic efficiency accurately estimated field abundance of a mobile predator that struggled to meet its metabolic demands, but was a poor predictor for a sedentary predator that operated well below its energetic limits. Temperature effects on population abundance may thus be strongly dependent on whether organisms are regulated by their own energy intake or interspecific interactions. Given the widespread use of functional response parameters in ecological modelling, reconciling outcomes from laboratory and field studies increases the confidence and precision with which we can predict warming impacts on natural systems.

Long-term exposure to higher temperature increases the thermal sensitivity of grazer metabolism and movement

Ecological studies of global warming impacts have many constraints. Organisms are often exposed to higher temperatures for short periods of time, probably underestimating their ability to acclimate or adapt relative to slower but real rates of warming. Many studies also focus on a limited number of traits and miss the multifaceted effects that warming may have on organisms, from physiology to behaviour. Organisms exhibit different movement traits, some of which are primarily driven by metabolic processes and others by decision-making, which should influence the extent to which temperature affects them. We collected snails from streams that have been differentially heated by geothermal activity for decades to determine how long-term exposure to different temperatures affected their metabolism and movement. Additionally, we collected snails from a cold stream (5°C) and measured their metabolism and movement at higher temperatures (short-term exposure). We used respirometry to measure metabolic rates and automated in situ image-based tracking to quantify several movement traits from 5 to 21°C. Long-term exposure to higher temperatures resulted in a greater thermal sensitivity of metabolic rate compared to snails exposed for short durations, highlighting the need for caution when conducting acute temperature exposures in global warming research. Average speed, which is largely driven by metabolism, also increased more with temperature for long-term exposure compared to short-term exposure. Movement traits we interpret as more decision-based, such as time spent moving and trajectory shape, were less affected by temperature. Step length increased and step angle decreased at higher temperatures for both long- and short-term exposure, resulting in overall straighter trajectories. The power-law exponent of the step length distributions and fractal dimension of trajectories were independent of temperature, however, suggesting that snails retained the same movement strategy. The observed changes in snail movement at higher temperatures should lead to higher encounter rates and more efficient searching, providing a behavioural mechanism for stronger plant-herbivore interactions in warmer environments. Our research is among the first to show that temperature has contrasting effects on different movement traits, which may be determined by the metabolic contribution to those behaviours.

Persistence of environmental DNA in marine systems

As environmental DNA (eDNA) becomes an increasingly valuable resource for marine ecosystem monitoring, understanding variation in its persistence across contrasting environments is critical. Here, we quantify the breakdown of macrobial eDNA over a spatio-temporal axis of locally extreme conditions, varying from ocean-influenced offshore to urban-inshore, and between winter and summer. We report that eDNA degrades 1.6 times faster in the inshore environment than the offshore environment, but contrary to expectation we find no difference over season. Analysis of environmental covariables show a spatial gradient of salinity and a temporal gradient of pH, with salinity—or the biotic correlates thereof—most important. Based on our estimated inshore eDNA half-life and naturally occurring eDNA concentrations, we estimate that eDNA may be detected for around 48 h, offering potential to collect ecological community data of high local fidelity. We conclude by placing these results in the context of previously published eDNA decay rates.

Rupert A. Collins et al. show that environmental DNA degrades faster in the inshore urban environment than the ocean-influenced offshore environment. This study suggests that environmental DNA can be reliably detected for two days, providing an optimal time window of high local fidelity.

Soil temperature effects on the structure and diversity of plant and invertebrate communities in a natural warming experiment

Global warming is predicted to significantly alter species physiology, biotic interactions and thus ecosystem functioning, as a consequence of coexisting species exhibiting a wide range of thermal sensitivities. There is, however, a dearth of research examining warming impacts on natural communities.

Here, we used a natural warming experiment in Iceland to investigate the changes in above‐ground terrestrial plant and invertebrate communities along a soil temperature gradient (10°C–30°C).

The α‐diversity of plants and invertebrates decreased with increasing soil temperature, driven by decreasing plant species richness and increasing dominance of certain invertebrate species in warmer habitats. There was also greater species turnover in both plant and invertebrate communities with increasing pairwise temperature difference between sites. There was no effect of temperature on percentage cover of vegetation at the community level, driven by contrasting effects at the population level.

There was a reduction in the mean body mass and an increase in the total abundance of the invertebrate community, resulting in no overall change in community biomass. There were contrasting effects of temperature on the population abundance of various invertebrate species, which could be explained by differential thermal tolerances and metabolic requirements, or may have been mediated by changes in plant community composition.

Our study provides an important baseline from which the effect of changing environmental conditions on terrestrial communities can be tracked. It also contributes to our understanding of why community‐level studies of warming impacts are imperative if we are to disentangle the contrasting thermal responses of individual populations.

Changes in feeding selectivity of freshwater invertebrates across a natural thermal gradient

Environmental warming places physiological constraints on organisms, which may be mitigated by their feeding behavior. Theory predicts that consumers should increase their feeding selectivity for more energetically valuable resources in warmer environments to offset the disproportionate increase in metabolic demand relative to ingestion rate. This may also result in a change in feeding strategy or a shift towards a more specialist diet. This study used a natural warming experiment to investigate temperature effects on the feeding selectivity of three freshwater invertebrate grazers: the snail Radix balthica, the blackfly larva Simulium aureum, and the midgefly larva Eukiefferiella minor. Chesson’s Selectivity Index was used to compare the proportional abundance of diatom species in the guts of each invertebrate species with corresponding rock biofilms sampled from streams of different temperature. The snails became more selective in warmer streams, choosing high profile epilithic diatoms over other guilds and feeding on a lower diversity of diatom species. The blackfly larvae appeared to switch from active collector gathering of sessile high profile diatoms to more passive filter feeding of motile diatoms in warmer streams. No changes in selectivity were observed for the midgefly larvae, whose diet was representative of resource availability in the environment. These results suggest that key primary consumers in freshwater streams, which constitute a major portion of invertebrate biomass, can change their feeding behavior in warmer waters in a range of different ways. These patterns could potentially lead to fundamental changes in the flow of energy through freshwater food webs.

Interactive effects of temperature and habitat complexity on freshwater communities

Warming can lead to increased growth of plants or algae at the base of the food web, which may increase the overall complexity of habitat available for other organisms. Temperature and habitat complexity have both been shown to alter the structure and functioning of communities, but they may also have interactive effects, for example, if the shade provided by additional habitat negates the positive effect of temperature on understory plant or algal growth. This study explored the interactive effects of these two major environmental factors in a manipulative field experiment, by assessing changes in ecosystem functioning (primary production and decomposition) and community structure in the presence and absence of artificial plants along a natural stream temperature gradient of 5-18°C. There was no effect of temperature or habitat complexity on benthic primary production, but epiphytic production increased with temperature in the more complex habitat. Cellulose decomposition rate increased with temperature, but was unaffected by habitat complexity. Macroinvertebrate communities were less similar to each other as temperature increased, while habitat complexity only altered community composition in the coldest streams. There was also an overall increase in macroinvertebrate abundance, body mass, and biomass in the warmest streams, driven by increasing dominance of snails and blackfly larvae. Presence of habitat complexity, however, dampened the strength of this temperature effect on the abundance of macroinvertebrates in the benthos. The interactive effects that were observed suggest that habitat complexity can modify the effects of temperature on important ecosystem functions and community structure, which may alter energy flow through the food web. Given that warming is likely to increase habitat complexity, particularly at higher latitudes, more studies should investigate these two major environmental factors in combination to improve our ability to predict the impacts of future global change.

Temperature effects on fish production across a natural thermal gradient

Global warming is widely predicted to reduce the biomass production of top predators, or even result in species loss. Several exceptions to this expectation have been identified, however, and it is vital that we understand the underlying mechanisms if we are to improve our ability to predict future trends. Here, we used a natural warming experiment in Iceland and quantitative theoretical predictions to investigate the success of brown trout as top predators across a stream temperature gradient (4-25 °C). Brown trout are at the northern limit of their geographic distribution in this system, with ambient stream temperatures below their optimum for maximal growth, and above it in the warmest streams. A five-month mark-recapture study revealed that population abundance, biomass, growth rate, and production of trout all increased with stream temperature. We identified two mechanisms that contributed to these responses: (1) trout became more selective in their diet as stream temperature increased, feeding higher in the food web and increasing in trophic position; and (2) trophic transfer through the food web was more efficient in the warmer streams. We found little evidence to support a third potential mechanism: that external subsidies would play a more important role in the diet of trout with increasing stream temperature. Resource availability was also amplified through the trophic levels with warming, as predicted by metabolic theory in nutrient-replete systems. These results highlight circumstances in which top predators can thrive in warmer environments and contribute to our knowledge of warming impacts on natural communities and ecosystem functioning.

It's only a matter of time: the altered role of subsidies in a warming world

Clockwise from left: an experimental stream reach from the study, highlighting the fences used to contain fish as the apex predator; a cutthroat trout from the experiment, the only fish species in the study streams; stomach contents from a fish, highlighting the major role of the terrestrial subsidy (mealworms) in the diet. In Focus: Sato, T., El-Sabaawi, R.W., Campbell, K., Ohta, T. & Richardson, J.S. (2016) A test of the effects of timing of a pulsed resource subsidy on stream ecosystems. Journal of Animal Ecology, 85, 1136-1146. Cross-ecosystem subsidies play a critical role in maintaining the structure and functioning of natural communities, especially if they are asynchronous with resource production in the recipient ecosystem. Sato et al. () use a large-scale field experiment to show that changes in the timing of a pulsed terrestrial subsidy can alter stream dynamics from the individual to the ecosystem level. With increasing evidence that global warming will alter the timing, magnitude and frequency of allochthonous inputs, these findings make an important contribution to our understanding of how such changes will reverberate throughout ecosystems that depend on subsidies.

Navigating the complexity of ecological stability

Human actions challenge nature in many ways. Ecological responses are ineluctably complex, demanding measures that describe them succinctly. Collectively, these measures encapsulate the overall 'stability' of the system. Many international bodies, including the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, broadly aspire to maintain or enhance ecological stability. Such bodies frequently use terms pertaining to stability that lack clear definition. Consequently, we cannot measure them and so they disconnect from a large body of theoretical and empirical understanding. We assess the scientific and policy literature and show that this disconnect is one consequence of an inconsistent and one-dimensional approach that ecologists have taken to both disturbances and stability. This has led to confused communication of the nature of stability and the level of our insight into it. Disturbances and stability are multidimensional. Our understanding of them is not. We have a remarkably poor understanding of the impacts on stability of the characteristics that define many, perhaps all, of the most important elements of global change. We provide recommendations for theoreticians, empiricists and policymakers on how to better integrate the multidimensional nature of ecological stability into their research, policies and actions.

Weighting and indirect effects identify keystone species in food webs

Species extinctions are accelerating globally, yet the mechanisms that maintain local biodiversity remain poorly understood. The extinction of species that feed on or are fed on by many others (i.e. 'hubs') has traditionally been thought to cause the greatest threat of further biodiversity loss. Very little attention has been paid to the strength of those feeding links (i.e. link weight) and the prevalence of indirect interactions. Here, we used a dynamical model based on empirical energy budget data to assess changes in ecosystem stability after simulating the loss of species according to various extinction scenarios. Link weight and/or indirect effects had stronger effects on food-web stability than the simple removal of 'hubs', demonstrating that both quantitative fluxes and species dissipating their effects across many links should be of great concern in biodiversity conservation, and the potential for 'hubs' to act as keystone species may have been exaggerated to date.

Predicting the consequences of species loss using size-structured biodiversity approaches

Understanding the consequences of species loss in complex ecological communities is one of the great challenges in current biodiversity research. For a long time, this topic has been addressed by traditional biodiversity experiments. Most of these approaches treat species as trait-free, taxonomic units characterizing communities only by species number without accounting for species traits. However, extinctions do not occur at random as there is a clear correlation between extinction risk and species traits. In this review, we assume that large species will be most threatened by extinction and use novel allometric and size-spectrum concepts that include body mass as a primary species trait at the levels of populations and individuals, respectively, to re-assess three classic debates on the relationships between biodiversity and (i) food-web structural complexity, (ii) community dynamic stability, and (iii) ecosystem functioning. Contrasting current expectations, size-structured approaches suggest that the loss of large species, that typically exploit most resource species, may lead to future food webs that are less interwoven and more structured by chains of interactions and compartments. The disruption of natural body-mass distributions maintaining food-web stability may trigger avalanches of secondary extinctions and strong trophic cascades with expected knock-on effects on the functionality of the ecosystems. Therefore, we argue that it is crucial to take into account body size as a species trait when analysing the consequences of biodiversity loss for natural ecosystems. Applying size-structured approaches provides an integrative ecological concept that enables a better understanding of each species' unique role across communities and the causes and consequences of biodiversity loss.

Size-balanced community reorganization in response to nutrients and warming

It is widely accepted that global warming will adversely affect ecological communities. As ecosystems are simultaneously exposed to other anthropogenic influences, it is important to address the effects of climate change in the context of many stressors. Nutrient enrichment might offset some of the energy demands that warming can exert on organisms by stimulating growth at the base of the food web. It is important to know whether indirect effects of warming will be as ecologically significant as direct physiological effects. Declining body size is increasingly viewed as a universal response to warming, with the potential to alter trophic interactions. To address these issues, we used an outdoor array of marine mesocosms to examine the impacts of warming, nutrient enrichment and altered top-predator body size on a community comprised of the predator (shore crab Carcinus maenas), various grazing detritivores (amphipods) and algal resources. Warming increased mortality rates of crabs, but had no effect on their moulting rates. Nutrient enrichment and warming had near diametrically opposed effects on the assemblage, confirming that the ecological effects of these two stressors can cancel each other out. This suggests that nutrient-enriched systems might act as an energy refuge to populations of species under metabolic constraints due to warming. While there was a strong difference in assemblages between mesocosms containing crabs compared to mesocosms without crabs, decreasing crab size had no detectable effect on the amphipod or algal assemblages. This suggests that in allometrically balanced communities, the expected long-term effect of warming (declining body size) is not of similar ecological consequence to the direct physiological effects of warming, at least not over the six week duration of the experiment described here. More research is needed to determine the long-term effects of declining body size on the bioenergetic balance of natural communities.

Integrating comparative functional response experiments into global change research

There is a growing appreciation for the importance of non-consumptive effects in predator-prey interaction research, which can often outweigh the importance of direct feeding. Barrios-O'Neill et al. (2014) report a novel method to characterize such effects by comparing the functional response of native and introduced intermediate consumers in the presence and absence of a higher predator. The invader exhibited stronger direct feeding and was also more resistant to intimidation by the higher predator. This experimental framework may be incorporated into mainstream global change research, for example, to quantify the importance of non-consumptive effects for the success or failure of biological invasions.

Climate change and geothermal ecosystems: natural laboratories, sentinel systems, and future refugia

Understanding and predicting how global warming affects the structure and functioning of natural ecosystems is a key challenge of the 21st century. Isolated laboratory and field experiments testing global change hypotheses have been criticized for being too small-scale and overly simplistic, whereas surveys are inferential and often confound temperature with other drivers. Research that utilizes natural thermal gradients offers a more promising approach and geothermal ecosystems in particular, which span a range of temperatures within a single biogeographic area, allow us to take the laboratory into nature rather than vice versa. By isolating temperature from other drivers, its ecological effects can be quantified without any loss of realism, and transient and equilibrial responses can be measured in the same system across scales that are not feasible using other empirical methods. Embedding manipulative experiments within geothermal gradients is an especially powerful approach, informing us to what extent small-scale experiments can predict the future behaviour of real ecosystems. Geothermal areas also act as sentinel systems by tracking responses of ecological networks to warming and helping to maintain ecosystem functioning in a changing landscape by providing sources of organisms that are preadapted to different climatic conditions. Here, we highlight the emerging use of geothermal systems in climate change research, identify novel research avenues, and assess their roles for catalysing our understanding of ecological and evolutionary responses to global warming.

FORUM: Ecological networks: the missing links in biomonitoring science

Monitoring anthropogenic impacts is essential for managing and conserving ecosystems, yet current biomonitoring approaches lack the tools required to deal with the effects of stressors on species and their interactions in complex natural systems.

Ecological networks (trophic or mutualistic) can offer new insights into ecosystem degradation, adding value to current taxonomically constrained schemes. We highlight some examples to show how new network approaches can be used to interpret ecological responses.

Synthesis and applications. Augmenting routine biomonitoring data with interaction data derived from the literature, complemented with ground‐truthed data from direct observations where feasible, allows us to begin to characterise large numbers of ecological networks across environmental gradients. This process can be accelerated by adopting emerging technologies and novel analytical approaches, enabling biomonitoring to move beyond simple pass/fail schemes and to address the many ecological responses that can only be understood from a network‐based perspective.

Augmenting routine biomonitoring data with interaction data derived from the literature, complemented with ground‐truthed data from direct observations where feasible, allows us to begin to characterise large numbers of ecological networks across environmental gradients. This process can be accelerated by adopting emerging technologies and novel analytical approaches, enabling biomonitoring to move beyond simple pass/fail schemes and to address the many ecological responses that can only be understood from a network‐based perspective.

Diatoms can be an important exception to temperature-size rules at species and community levels of organization

Climate warming has been linked to an apparent general decrease in body sizes of ectotherms, both across and within taxa, especially in aquatic systems. Smaller body size in warmer geographical regions has also been widely observed. Since body size is a fundamental determinant of many biological attributes, climate-warming-related changes in size could ripple across multiple levels of ecological organization. Some recent studies have questioned the ubiquity of temperature-size rules, however, and certain widespread and abundant taxa, such as diatoms, may be important exceptions. We tested the hypothesis that diatoms are smaller at warmer temperatures using a system of geothermally heated streams. There was no consistent relationship between size and temperature at either the population or community level. These field data provide important counterexamples to both James' and Bergmann's temperature-size rules, respectively, undermining the widely held assumption that warming favours the small. This study provides compelling new evidence that diatoms are an important exception to temperature-size rules for three reasons: (i) we use many more species than prior work; (ii) we examine both community and species levels of organization simultaneously; (iii) we work in a natural system with a wide temperature gradient but minimal variation in other factors, to achieve robust tests of hypotheses without relying on laboratory setups, which have limited realism. In addition, we show that interspecific effects were a bigger contributor to whole-community size differences, and are probably more ecologically important than more commonly studied intraspecific effects. These findings highlight the need for multispecies approaches in future studies of climate warming and body size.

Climate-induced changes in bottom-up and top-down processes independently alter a marine ecosystem

Climate change has complex structural impacts on coastal ecosystems. Global warming is linked to a widespread decline in body size, whereas increased flood frequency can amplify nutrient enrichment through enhanced run-off. Altered population body-size structure represents a disruption in top-down control, whereas eutrophication embodies a change in bottom-up forcing. These processes are typically studied in isolation and little is known about their potential interactive effects. Here, we present the results of an in situ experiment examining the combined effects of top-down and bottom-up forces on the structure of a coastal marine community. Reduced average body mass of the top predator (the shore crab, Carcinus maenas) and nutrient enrichment combined additively to alter mean community body mass. Nutrient enrichment increased species richness and overall density of organisms. Reduced top-predator body mass increased community biomass. Additionally, we found evidence for an allometrically induced trophic cascade. Here, the reduction in top-predator body mass enabled greater biomass of intermediate fish predators within the mesocosms. This, in turn, suppressed key micrograzers, which led to an overall increase in microalgal biomass. This response highlights the possibility for climate-induced trophic cascades, driven by altered size structure of populations, rather than species extinction.

Loss of functionally unique species may gradually undermine ecosystems

Functionally unique species contribute to the functional diversity of natural systems, often enhancing ecosystem functioning. An abundance of weakly interacting species increases stability in natural systems, suggesting that loss of weakly linked species may reduce stability. Any link between the functional uniqueness of a species and the strength of its interactions in a food web could therefore have simultaneous effects on ecosystem functioning and stability. Here, we analyse patterns in 213 real food webs and show that highly unique species consistently tend to have the weakest mean interaction strength per unit biomass in the system. This relationship is not a simple consequence of the interdependence of both measures on body size and appears to be driven by the empirical pattern of size structuring in aquatic systems and the trophic position of each species in the web. Food web resolution also has an important effect, with aggregation of species into higher taxonomic groups producing a much weaker relationship. Food webs with fewer unique and less weakly interacting species also show significantly greater variability in their levels of primary production. Thus, the loss of highly unique, weakly interacting species may eventually lead to dramatic state changes and unpredictable levels of ecosystem functioning.

Interaction strength, food web topology and the relative importance of species in food webs

1. We established complex marine communities, consisting of over 100 species, in large subtidal experimental mesocosms. We measured the strength of direct interactions and the net strength of direct and indirect interactions between the species in those communities, using a combination of theoretical and empirical approaches. 2. Theoretical predictions of interaction strength were derived from the interaction coefficient matrix, which was parameterised using allometric predator-prey relationships. Empirical estimates of interaction strength were quantified using the ln-ratio, which measures the change in biomass density of species A in the presence and absence of species B. 3. We observed that highly connected species tend to have weak direct effects and net effects in our experimental food webs, whether we calculate interaction strength theoretically or empirically. 4. We found a significant correlation between our theoretical predictions and empirical estimates of direct effects and net effects. The net effects correlation was much stronger, indicating that our experimental communities were dominated by a mixture of direct and indirect effects. 5. Re-calculation of the theoretical predictions of net effects after randomising predator and prey body masses did not affect the negative relationship with connectance. 6. These results suggest that food web topology, which in this system is constrained by body mass, is overwhelmingly important for the magnitude of direct and indirect interactions and hence species importance in the face of biodiversity declines.

Perturbations to trophic interactions and the stability of complex food webs

The pattern of predator-prey interactions is thought to be a key determinant of ecosystem processes and stability. Complex ecological networks are characterized by distributions of interaction strengths that are highly skewed, with many weak and few strong interactors present. Theory suggests that this pattern promotes stability as weak interactors dampen the destabilizing potential of strong interactors. Here, we present an experimental test of this hypothesis and provide empirical evidence that the loss of weak interactors can destabilize communities in nature. We ranked 10 marine consumer species by the strength of their trophic interactions. We removed the strongest and weakest of these interactors from experimental food webs containing >100 species. Extinction of strong interactors produced a dramatic trophic cascade and reduced the temporal stability of key ecosystem process rates, community diversity and resistance to changes in community composition. Loss of weak interactors also proved damaging for our experimental ecosystems, leading to reductions in the temporal and spatial stability of ecosystem process rates, community diversity, and resistance. These results highlight the importance of conserving species to maintain the stabilizing pattern of trophic interactions in nature, even if they are perceived to have weak effects in the system.